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VILLAGEApril/May
J
UDGING by Twitter at least, the cam-
paigns for the Local and European
elections that will take place in May
kicked off after St Patrick’s day. Anoraks
will usually find some reason to find an inter-
est in elections, and opinion polls will be
pored over with glee as if they were a Rosetta
Stone giving the key to understanding the
Irish people.
It’s difficult to get excited about these elec-
tions. The simple fact it, they don’t matter
very much. That’s not to say local govern-
ment and the EU don’t matter much. They
do. If we think about the communities we
live in, how our environment is designed,
these come from local authorities. Many
of the rules guiding what we consume are
set in Europe. The EU and local authorities
probably affect our daily lives more than
the goings-on in Merrion Street, though the
influence of the EU is much less than the fig-
ures mostly circulated – which are of dubious
provenance – suggest. But there is at best a
tenuous link between the elections and what
they do.
In both cases we see a powerful permanent
bureaucracy which exerts control on the
elected members and denies them control
of the officials. This we expect from the EU
– the mantra ‘democratic deficit is used so
often it’s become a cliché – but local gov-
ernment: that should be easy to organise.
And if we’re famously parochial, or worse –
provincial - in our politics, then surely our
local government should be noteworthy for
its dynamism and relevance.
It doesn’t happen. County managers rule
locally. The EU Commission rules nationally.
In both cases over the heads of those with a
NEWS ELECTIONS
Sinn Féin will do quite well, but none of it will matter – much. By Eoin O’Malley
Don’t worry about
the local and euro elections
April/May VILLAGE
democratic, electoral mandate. And most
sensible people switch off.
These elections are second-order elec-
tions, that is, ones where the outcome of
the election matters little, and people vote
on other issues secondary to the overt pur-
pose of the elections.
In second-order elections people behave
differently. They are more likely to abstain,
so turnout is lower. Those who do vote, don’t
vote how they would in a general election.
Instead they use it to try something new or
to send a message to the government.
Support for small parties and inde-
pendents tends to rise. The
opposition will do better. In
both local and European elec-
tions the candidate matters a
lot. In general elections it’s hard
for a good candidate to buck the
national trend for a party. When
Fianna Fáil was doing badly in
the decline was pretty even. In local
and European elections the candidate mat-
ters more. So in local elections, with small
constituencies it’s possible to be known
by, and to know, much of the electorate. In
European elections the constituencies are
large so local knowledge doesn’t get you
very far. In these elections you need to be or
become well known by the vast electorate.
In the European elections then, we can
expect some candidates, such as Éamon
Ryan, whose Green Party is polling poorly,
to do much better than those polls suggest.
But these mid-term polls won’t tell us
much. People don’t really start thinking
about who they’ll actually vote for in a gen-
eral election until much closer to the time.
There’s a soft underbelly of support for most
of the parties.
We will expect Labour to do very poorly.
It’s hard to see the party holding any of its
seats, especially as none of the three MEPs
elected for the party in is standing.
Fine Gael will not have a comfortable out-
ing either but its size should mean it gets
three MEPs elected. Allowing Brian Hayes,
who would have been tipped for elevation
to cabinet and maybe even leadership of
Fine Gael when Kenny stands down, shows
it was hardly thinking strategi-
cally. It will oblige the party to lose
a good performer in government,
and cause a by-election it has little
hope of winning.
Fianna Fáil support outside
Dublin should see it retain a seat
each in Ireland South and Ireland
Midlands-North-West. It‘s hard to see
Mary FitzPatrick elected in Dublin. Her
main claims to fame seem to be that she’s
a woman, and was blackguarded by Bertie
Ahern. However Fianna Fáil may not have
many expectations of winning a seat in
Dublin, and it could give FitzPatrick an
opportunity to increase her profile. I won-
der would it have been better running two
candidates, and giving the opportunity to
raise the profile of two people for
future election to the Dáil.
The accidental candidate selec-
tion of the three main parties
contrasts with that of Sinn Féin.
The party always seems to play
the long game. It chose its can-
didates much earlier and used
the Seanad referendum to raise
the profile of these candidates.
The strategic behaviour of Sinn
Féin will put it in a good position
to win three seats (four if you
include Northern Ireland).
It will also do well in the local
elections, which will set it up for
discovering which new candi-
dates will be suitable for the next
general election. This is what all
other parties will hope to get as
well. They’ll also need to find
enough women to draw on for
candidates in the general elec-
tions to ensure that they don’t
lose public funding.
The local and European elections won’t
be of much interest, but they do reveal how
parties are being managed. So far this sug-
gests that Sinn Féin, uniquely, is thinking
strategically and will continue its – unspec-
tacular – growth. •
Dr Eoin O’Malley teaches
Irish politics and public
policy at the School of
Law and Government,
Dublin City University.
It’s hard to see
Labour holding
any of its seats.
Fine Gael will
not have a
comfortable
outing. Fianna
Fáil support
outside Dublin
should see it
retain a seat
in South and
Midlands/
North-West
“
