12 February/March 2024 February/March 2024 PB
T
here is relief without enthusiasm in the
North at the new Executive. This
column had predicted a return in the
autumn but it took four extra months
before DUP leader Jerey Donaldson
felt he had finessed his party to allow it to move.
Nevertheless, before Michelle O’Neill’s
nomination as First Minister, there were online
indications that there would be Loyalist
disruption. Roads across Belfast were to be
blocked. Significantly, this did not happen.
Certainly, some Unionists are willing to give
O’Neill the benefit of the doubt. More importantly,
most feared protests would ignite uncontrollable
violence.
There are, though, landmines in the new
Executives path. One of O’Neill’s first public
appearances was attending the PSNI graduation
ceremony.
The PSNI is not the RUC. However, relations
between the Catholic community and police have
been fractious since the foundations of Northern
Ireland. That attitude extends way beyond hard-
line Republicans. There have been several
incidents involving the PSNI indicating all is still
not well.
Certainly, O’Neill is in her honeymoon period.
Nationalists will accept many compromises to
keep the First Ministership tied down. Opponents
of such compromises have long departed Sinn
Féin.
For O’Neill, though, the issue of IRA
commemorations will arise. If she consistently
fails to attend, a very significant section of her
base will become restless. If she attends, the DUP
will object strongly.
That is only the first wave of landmines.
18 January saw a general strike in the North’s
public sector. Public-sector workers are seeking
at least parity with the pay and conditions in
Britain. They are also seeking resourcing. Under-
stang is a big issue. The Health Service is in
crisis. Health minister Robin Swann says his
Department of Health needs £1bn.
Up to now, trade unionists have been willing to
give the Executive a chance. Public transport
workers have postponed a day of strikes.
Additionally, there has been political pressure on
the trade unions to hold back. There is a sense of
action having been held back temporarily.
However, Northern public sector pay has fallen
significantly behind Britain’s, and certainly lags
inflation. Trade unionists also see an Assembly
and Executive as easier to pressurise than a
British government. The forces at play mean that
inevitably public-sector pay will have to be
improved.
Sinn Féin now holds the Ministries of both
Finance and the Economy. Both risk being
poisoned chalices.
Finance could be particularly virulent. Minister
Caoimhe Archibald will have to hold to spending
limits set out by the Conservative Government in
Britain. A Keir Starmer-led Labour government
will probably dislodge the moribund
Conservatives by the year’s end. Starmer has
promised to uphold the Conservatives’ spending
limits.
It is dicult to see how Archibald can avoid
implementing some austerity measures.
Ulster Unionist Robin Swann was popular
across the community when Health Minister in
the last Executive. He was seen as handling Covid
generally well. He had the propulsive advantage
of being compared to bumbling Boris Johnson.
This time, he will not have it as easy. Not only
is money short for Health. There are moves to
centralise services in fewer hospitals. Removal of
local services has created particular controversy
in Newry, Fermanagh and Coleraine.
The DUP’s Paul Givan is Education Minister.
Though young, Givan is seen as ‘old DUP ‘. That
By Anton McCabe
said, his first public engagement was visiting a
Catholic grammar school. A particularly risky area
for him is the Irish language sector. The DUP is
seen as hostile. Refusing funding for any
Gaelscoil, whatever the reason, can explode into
controversy.
Givan is also a strong social conservative and
creationist. Introducing such beliefs into
educational curricula would cause upheaval.
Moreover, the DUP is suffering internal
stresses. The Executive meeting which decided
on the return to the Executive was heated. A
significant split in the immediate future is
unlikely, dissenters having nowhere to go. Thus
discontent will fester, potentially turning toxic.
The DUP is facing internal change. Until now
the leadership style was authoritarian.
Disagreement existed, but was always kept
private. How well the party can handle public
disagreement is unknown.
Whatever happens, neither the DUP nor Sinn
in can withdraw from the current political
process. On a simple level, both depend on the
salaries and expenses. On a wider level, both
have invested their entire political capital in the
process. Neither has a return path to their
traditional stances. Thus they are tied together,
able neither to agree nor separate. Their big
success is in dividing up the spoils of government.
Since 2009, the Assembly has been down just
over 40% of the time. There is little hope for
significant improvement in the foreseeable
future. It is both the danger, and the source of
wilful hope, for the future that the prospects for
the North if this Executive falls are so dreadful.
DUP
FOR IT, FOR
THE MOMENT
Unenthusiastic relief for both DUP and Sinn Féin
at resurrection of Executive – and neither party
can afford it to fail – but there are landmines for
all especially strikes, austerity, Irish language,
ideology and toxic DUP dissent
First Minister Michelle O’Neill nd Deputy First Minister Emm Little-Pengelly
NEWS

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