DUP FOR IT, FOR THE MOMENT - Village Magazine

12 February/March 2024 February/March 2024 PB

here is relief without enthusiasm in the

North at the new Executive. This

column had predicted a return in the

autumn but it took four extra months

before DUP leader Jerey Donaldson

felt he had ﬁnessed his party to allow it to move.

Nevertheless, before Michelle O’Neill’s

nomination as First Minister, there were online

indications that there would be Loyalist

disruption. Roads across Belfast were to be

blocked. Signiﬁcantly, this did not happen.

Certainly, some Unionists are willing to give

O’Neill the beneﬁt of the doubt. More importantly,

most feared protests would ignite uncontrollable

violence.

There are, though, landmines in the new

Executive’s path. One of O’Neill’s ﬁrst public

appearances was attending the PSNI graduation

ceremony.

The PSNI is not the RUC. However, relations

between the Catholic community and police have

been fractious since the foundations of Northern

Ireland. That attitude extends way beyond hard-

line Republicans. There have been several

incidents involving the PSNI indicating all is still

not well.

Certainly, O’Neill is in her honeymoon period.

Nationalists will accept many compromises to

keep the First Ministership tied down. Opponents

of such compromises have long departed Sinn

Féin.

For O’Neill, though, the issue of IRA

commemorations will arise. If she consistently

fails to attend, a very signiﬁcant section of her

base will become restless. If she attends, the DUP

will object strongly.

That is only the ﬁrst wave of landmines.

18 January saw a general strike in the North’s

public sector. Public-sector workers are seeking

at least parity with the pay and conditions in

Britain. They are also seeking resourcing. Under-

stang is a big issue. The Health Service is in

crisis. Health minister Robin Swann says his

Department of Health needs £1bn.

Up to now, trade unionists have been willing to

give the Executive a chance. Public transport

workers have postponed a day of strikes.

Additionally, there has been political pressure on

the trade unions to hold back. There is a sense of

action having been held back temporarily.

However, Northern public sector pay has fallen

signiﬁcantly behind Britain’s, and certainly lags

inﬂation. Trade unionists also see an Assembly

and Executive as easier to pressurise than a

British government. The forces at play mean that

inevitably public-sector pay will have to be

improved.

Sinn Féin now holds the Ministries of both

Finance and the Economy. Both risk being

poisoned chalices.

Finance could be particularly virulent. Minister

Caoimhe Archibald will have to hold to spending

limits set out by the Conservative Government in

Britain. A Keir Starmer-led Labour government

will probably dislodge the moribund

Conservatives by the year’s end. Starmer has

promised to uphold the Conservatives’ spending

limits.

It is dicult to see how Archibald can avoid

implementing some austerity measures.

Ulster Unionist Robin Swann was popular

across the community when Health Minister in

the last Executive. He was seen as handling Covid

generally well. He had the propulsive advantage

of being compared to bumbling Boris Johnson.

This time, he will not have it as easy. Not only

is money short for Health. There are moves to

centralise services in fewer hospitals. Removal of

local services has created particular controversy

in Newry, Fermanagh and Coleraine.

The DUP’s Paul Givan is Education Minister.

Though young, Givan is seen as ‘old DUP ‘. That

By Anton McCabe

said, his ﬁrst public engagement was visiting a

Catholic grammar school. A particularly risky area

for him is the Irish language sector. The DUP is

seen as hostile. Refusing funding for any

Gaelscoil, whatever the reason, can explode into

controversy.

Givan is also a strong social conservative and

creationist. Introducing such beliefs into

educational curricula would cause upheaval.

Moreover, the DUP is suffering internal

stresses. The Executive meeting which decided

on the return to the Executive was heated. A

signiﬁcant split in the immediate future is

unlikely, dissenters having nowhere to go. Thus

discontent will fester, potentially turning toxic.

The DUP is facing internal change. Until now

the leadership style was authoritarian.

Disagreement existed, but was always kept

private. How well the party can handle public

disagreement is unknown.

Whatever happens, neither the DUP nor Sinn

Féin can withdraw from the current political

process. On a simple level, both depend on the

salaries and expenses. On a wider level, both

have invested their entire political capital in the

process. Neither has a return path to their

traditional stances. Thus they are tied together,

able neither to agree nor separate. Their big

success is in dividing up the spoils of government.

Since 2009, the Assembly has been down just

over 40% of the time. There is little hope for

signiﬁcant improvement in the foreseeable

future. It is both the danger, and the source of

wilful hope, for the future that the prospects for

the North if this Executive falls are so dreadful.

DUP

FOR IT, FOR

THE MOMENT

Unenthusiastic relief for both DUP and Sinn Féin

at resurrection of Executive – and neither party

can afford it to fail – but there are landmines for

all especially strikes, austerity, Irish language,

ideology and toxic DUP dissent

First Minister Michelle O’Neill nd Deputy First Minister Emm Little-Pengelly

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