Exclusive: the traders report on the Economic Impacts of the Proposed Traffic Management Changes in the Draft Dublin City Centre Transport Plan 2023
New report says Transport Plan would reduce retail spending in the City Centre by €141,253,366 in 2028 (when all the proposed changes would be in place) and lead to corresponding reductions in gross value added (GVA) of €87,253,471, employment 1,787 retail jobs, wages €94,198,090 and Exchequer revenue €18,262,152.
By Michael Smith
A report prepared for the Dublin City Centre Traders Alliance Limited by Dr Pat McCloughan, Managing Director of PMCA Economic Consulting, concludes that the proposed traffic management changes being proposed by Dublin City Council (DCC) and the National Transport Authority (NTA) would reduce retail spending in the City Centre by €141,253,366 in 2028 (when all the proposed changes would be in place) and lead to corresponding reductions in gross value added (GVA) of €87,253,471, employment 1,787 retail jobs, wages €94,198,090 and Exchequer revenue €18,262,152.
However, these adverse impacts are only the direct economic impacts due to the proposed changes, which are driven by the plan to reduce cars in the City Centre even though the evidence indicates that retail spending by car users is highest among all modes of travel to the City Centre, according to the PMCA report commissioned by an alliance of Brown Thomas, Arnotts, Jervis Shopping Centre, Retail Excellence Ireland, Restaurants Association of Ireland, Louis Copeland & Sons, the Irish Parking Association, Best Car Parks and Fitzwilliam Real Estate Capital.
When account is also taken of the knock-on impacts on other sectors of the Irish economy then the consequences of the proposals are even greater. As indicated in the summary table below, adding together the total economic impacts in regard to GVA, wages and Exchequer revenue leads to the total adverse monetary impact (in 2028) of €390,585,676 or in current (2024 terms) €361,001,121 in the Irish economy, with the risk of the loss of up to 6,242 jobs in the economy (1,787 in retailing and 4,455 in other sectors). Moreover, many of those at work in the retail sector in the City Centre are on comparably low wages in what are nevertheless important jobs and who may struggle to find new work if they were to lose their jobs as a result of the Draft Plan.
| Summary of the Economic losses in Retailing and Other Sectors of the Irish Economy due to the Proposed Traffic Management Changes in the Draft Dublin City Centre Transport Plan 2023 | |||||
| Economic Impact Variable | Direct Impact [1] | Indirect Impact [2] | Induced Impact [3] | Knock-On Impact [2]+[3] | Total Impact [1]+[2]+[3] |
| Retail Spend/Value of Output (€) | 141,253,366 | 29,692,607 | 68,478,622 | 98,171,229 | 239,424,595 |
| Gross Value Added (GVA) (€) | 87,253,471 | 79,770,693 | 29,452,585 | 109,223,278 | 196,476,749 |
| Employment (FTEs) | 1,787 | 3,428 | 1,026 | 4,455 | 6,242 |
| Wages (€) | 94,198,090 | 46,408,623 | 12,379,630 | 58,788,254 | 152,986,343 |
| Exchequer Revenue (€) | 18,262,152 | 22,860,432 | 41,122,584 | ||
| Monetary Total (2028 Price Terms) | 199,713,712 | 126,179,316 | 41,832,215 | 190,871,963 | |
| Monetary Total (2024 Price Terms) | 184,586,580 | 116,621,979 | 38,663,672 | 176,414,541 | 361,001,121 |
| Source: This corresponding table in the main body of the report detailing the economic impacts in full is Table 10 (p. 14). | |||||
The Draft Plan envisages a low traffic city centre with more space for sustainable modes of transport – bus, rail, cycling and walking – and with more frequent and efficient public transport links and interchanges. By re-orienting the City Centre towards sustainable travel modes, the Draft Plan aims to facilitate the Council to meet the travel mode share targets for 2028 set out in the Dublin CDP 2022-2028 and to support the Council’s efforts to contribute towards the national objective of reducing emissions from transport by 50% by 2030 in the 2023 Climate Action Plan.
The Draft Plan contains the following travel mode share changes during 2019-2028 (2019 being the base year and 2028 the target year):
- Walking 11% to 13%;
- Cycling 6% to 13%;
- Public transport 54% to 57%; and
- Car, taxi and goods vehicle 29% to 17%.1
The targets in the Draft Plan imply the following travel mode share percentage changes during 2019-2028:
- Walking 18.2% growth;
- Cycling 116.7% growth (i.e. a more than doubling of the 2019 mode share);
- Public transport 5.6% growth; and
- Car, taxi and goods vehicle 41.4% decline.
The inclusion of taxis in the fourth group of travel modes provokes an element of confusion because the Canal Cordon Report 2022 produced by DCC and the NTA (which provides the travel data underpinning the Draft Plan) includes taxis among the “Sustainable Modes” (of transport) in Table 4 (p. 21) (along with bus, rail, LUAS, walking and cycling) while “Car, Goods and Other Modes” in that table of the Canal Cordon Report 2022 is the sum of car, goods vehicle and motor cycle modes.2
Delivery of the Draft Plan will occur during 2024-2030 with a series of proposed traffic management measures (i.e. restrictions) introduced in the City Centre during 2024-2028, while new transport initiatives – BusConnects Core Bus Corridor Schemes, DART+ West and DART+ South West – will be delivered during 2027-2030 (BusConnects Enhancements are planned to be introduced during 2024-2025). The new transport initiatives will be preceded by the proposed restrictions (which will be felt strongly on cars) (Table A1 in the Annex to this report reproduces the timings of the proposed traffic management measures and the new transport schemes for bus and rail as scheduled in the Draft Plan).
1 An illustrative summary of the Draft Plan (including the targets) is reproduced in Figure A1 in the Annex to this report.
2 This observation regarding the Canal Cordon Report 2022 is also noted in footnote 10 of this report (p. 6).
Among the traffic management measures proposed in the Draft Plan are the following:
- Private car traffic to be removed from the North Quays and the South Quays at Bachelors Walk and Aston Quay respectively;
- Only public transport vehicles and cyclists will be permitted to turn left from Westland Row onto Pearse Street;
- Beresford Place to be re-configured from one-way gyratory to two-way movement and the reduction of traffic lanes on Gardiner Street from four to two lanes;
- Removal of traffic from College Green and Dame Street at the Junction with George’s Street east;
- All private car traffic to be removed from Parliament Street.
Other provisions of the Draft Plan affecting private car access to the City Centre include:
- Reduction of on-street car parking to cater for sustainable travel modes and to move charging for on-street parking to an emissions-based pricing structure;
- Access to City Centre car parks will be maintained, as required, while the re-development or re- purposing of the most centrally-located multi-storey car parks will be pursued.
The Draft Plan contains the following vision for the capital (p. 7):
“Within the next 10 years, Dublin will have an established international reputation as one of Europe’s most sustainable, dynamic and resourceful city regions. Dublin, through the shared vision of its citizens and civic leaders, will be a beautiful, compact city, with a distinct character, a vibrant culture and a diverse, smart, green, innovation-based economy. It will be a socially inclusive city of urban neighbourhoods with excellent community and civic infrastructure based on the principles of the 15 minute [sic.] city, all connected by an exemplary public transport, cycling and walking system and interwoven with a high quality bio-diverse, green space network. In short, the vision is for a capital city where people will seek to live, work, experience, invest and socialise, as a matter of choice.”
In regard to the particularly substantial uplift in the travel mode share assigned to cycling (a more than doubling during 2019-2028 as observed above), the Draft Plan contains the following:
- SMT16 “It is the Policy of Dublin City Council to prioritise the development of safe and connected walking and cycling facilities and prioritise a shift to active travel for people of all ages and abilities, in line with the city’s mode share targets.” 3
- The prioritisation of walking and cycling is part of the Draft Plan’s goal of facilitating the delivery of a net-zero transport system in the City Centre.
- Chapter 14 of the Draft Plan is entitled “The City of Cycling” where it is envisaged that “the quality, safety and usability of the City Centre streets for cycling can be significantly improved by reducing the level of through traffic. When discussing cycling in Dublin City Centre, it is vital that we acknowledge all forms of movement by people using all types of bicycle. Standard bicycles may continue to dominate this mode in the short-term, however the growth of cargo bikes, electric bikes, scooters and e-scooters, as well as the proliferation of various rental bike schemes, will continue to change the character of this mode over the coming years.”
- A more active and healthier population due to the increased attractiveness of walking and cycling.
- Improved cycling facilities in terms of safety, convenience and legibility.
3 SMT is short for Sustainable Mobility Transport (Policy) within the Draft Plan. There are thirteen SMTs in the Draft Plan, within which there is SMT16 – Walking, Cycling and Active Travel.
A non-statutory consultation programme on the development of the Draft Plan was carried out by DCC (during 13 September and 1 December 2023) which included its promotion by the national broadcaster, national newspapers and radio stations to ensure public awareness. Promotion of the consultation programme also included events and use of social media by DCC. The consultation resulted in 3,592 responses with 80% welcoming and 20% being opposed to the Draft Plan. Forty-eight submissions were received from businesses and other organisations which are publicly available on the DCC website.4
However, businesses voiced their concerns that they were not properly consulted with on the details of the traffic management changes which led to only now DCC engaging with businesses.
While DCC recognises that the traffic management proposals will change people’s movement within the City Centre, and that the local economy of the City Centre will be affected, there is nothing in the public domain attributed to DCC or the NTA regarding the economic impacts of the proposed changes nor is there anything in the public domain regarding financial analysis and economic appraisal of the proposed changes contained in the Draft Plan in line with the Public Spending Code (PSC). More specifically, there is nothing to indicate that DCC or the NTA, or both organisations working together, has or have carried out any economic impact assessment of the proposed traffic management changes in the Dublin City Centre Study Area or the Inner Core or has or have conducted any financial analysis and economic appraisal of the proposed changes in the Draft Plan in line with the PSC, which otherwise would inform whether or not the proposed changes represent value for money. The NTA (in conjunction with external consultants which it tends to retain on large-scale transport projects) has significant experience in the PSC but there are no references by DCC or the NTA to having carried out any such assessment of the proposed changes let alone any economic impacts of the proposed traffic management changes.5
According to the website of the Department of Public Expenditure, NDP Delivery and Reform which is the Government Department responsible for the PSC:6
“All Irish public bodies are obliged to treat public funds with care, and to ensure that the best possible value for money is obtained whenever public money is being spent or invested.”
The Draft Plan outlines a map of the City Centre where the proposed traffic management changes will occur (in Figure 2.1 of the Draft Plan, “City Centre Study Area”) where the reader is informed as follows:
“To develop the plan, a study area roughly aligned with the area generally bounded by the Royal and Grand Canals has been identified. This central part of Dublin City has a population of approximately 130,000 residents [sic.] contains approximately 195,000 jobs, as well as a variety of different land uses, levels of activity and accessibility.”
“Within this wider study area however, it became clear during the early stages of the plan development that the focus was moving towards a more central inner city core. This Inner Core captures the highest order attractions within the city, notably in terms of retail, employment, night-life, as well as a concentration of nationally important cultural, educational and governmental institutions. Analysis of existing travel data also highlighted that while this core is a key destination for people coming into the city, much of the private car traffic is travelling through it. In this regard, 6 out of every 10 cars driving into the Inner Core had a destination outside this core area.”
4 https://dublincity.sharefile.eu/share/view/s1fdd993b23f64832befa323d5cd49bd0/fo9944b7-2c73-47be-929f- c04c7fc9ab89.
5 Consultancy firm Jacobs were involved (as external consultants) with DCC and the NTA in preparing the Draft Plan.
6 Formerly known as the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (DPER).
The Draft Plan outlines that in 2022 the NTA carried out a travel and expenditure survey in Dublin City Centre, focussed on the retail core (the Inner Core within the City Centre illustrated in Figure 2.1 of the Draft Plan). The survey found that 84% of people travelled to the retail core by public transport, walking and cycling, compared to 16% by private car. In terms of retail expenditure, car users were found to account for less than a quarter of retail expenditure in the City Centre, while expenditure by sustainable transport users equated to just over 76% of all retail spend.7
1. Main Messages of the Report
The main messages conveyed in this report through empirical analysis of relevant data are twofold.
First, analysis of the transport user data contained in the Canal Cordon Report 2022 shows that there have been significant changes in people’s travel modes in the City Centre since 2006 – towards sustainable travel modes as evident in Table 1. Based on the travel mode share changes which actually occurred during 2006-2019, the targeted travel mode shares in the Draft Plan for 2028 in respect of (1) walking (13%), (2) public transport (comprising bus, rail and LUAS) (57%) and (3) cars, taxis and goods vehicles (17%) would be met or exceeded in 2028 as shown in Table 1 – the walking share would be 13.9%, the public transport share 59.9% and the share for cars, taxis and goods vehicles would be 17.0%. On the other hand, the cycling mode share would be 8.6% in 2028, which is lower than the targeted share of 13%.
| Table 1: Summary of the Mode of Travel Shares within the Canal Cordon Area of Dublin City Centre in 2019 (Base Year) and 2028 (Target Year) Draft Plan Actual Trends 2006-2019 Target Met / Mode of Travel 2019 (Base) 2028 (Target) 2019 (Base) 2028 (Target) Exceeded Walking 11% 13% 11.4% 13.9% √ Cycling 6% 13% 6.0% 8.6% Public Transport 54% 57% 53.5% 59.9% √ Cars, Taxis and Goods Vehicles 29% 17% 28.4% 17.0% √ Total 100% 100% 99% 99% Source: Canal Cordon Report 2022 (National Transport Authority and Dublin City Council), PMCA Economic Consulting analysis |
| (actual trends 2006-2019 figures which are detailed subsequently in this report in Table 4, p. 9). Note: The reason why the travel mode shares based on the actual trends during 2006-2019 do not add up to 100% in 2019 and 2028 is because the shares attributed to the motor cycle travel mode are not included in the targets for 2028 in the Draft Plan. The motor cycle share in 2019 is 0.7% and in 2028 is 0.54% (figures subject to rounding). |
Thus, in reference to Table 1, in the absence of any traffic management changes or restrictions being introduced (i.e. based on the actual travel mode share changes which occurred 2006-2019), the Draft Plan targets in 2028 would be surpassed in (1) walking and (2) public transport (bus, rail and LUAS) and would be met in (3) cars, taxis and goods vehicles. On the other hand, the targeted 13% share for cycling would not be met in 2028.
These findings suggest the need for fewer traffic management changes in the City Centre between now and 2028, and that consideration be given to more refined measures designed to grow cycling, which nonetheless experienced the most rapid growth in any travel mode share during 2006-2019 (i.e. by 159% cumulatively or 7.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) whereas the car mode share declined by 28% cumulatively or by 2.5% CAGR during the period, as shown in Table 4, p. 9 of this report).
7 The map of the City Centre Study Area (within which the Inner Core) is reproduced in Figure A2 in the Annex to this report.
Secondly, while retail spending by users of sustainable travel modes in aggregate (bus, rail, LUAS, walking and cycling) might have overtaken that by car users in the City Centre, there is evidence to indicate that retail spending per car user (i.e. average retail spend by car user) is highest among all modes of travel to the City Centre.8 It therefore follows that by restricting car user access to the City Centre, the direct impact of the proposed traffic management changes will be to reduce retail spending in that part of the capital. The direct reduction in retail spend will in turn cause knock-on reductions in spend in other sectors in the City Centre and nationally through both supply chain effects (what are termed ‘indirect’ impacts in economic impact analysis) and ‘induced’ impacts (arising from workers in the retail sector losing their jobs and/or spending less in other sectors of the economy through lower wages due to the reduction in retail spending from less cars in the City Centre). As well as giving rise to lower spend and less jobs in the retail sector in the City Centre and in other sectors of the economy in both Dublin and the rest of the country, the traffic restrictions will also lead to a lowering in gross value added (GVA) in both the retail sector and other sectors of the Irish economy, which is important because GVA is directly related to Ireland’s GDP (gross domestic product) or the country’s national income. Yet another consequence of the traffic management restrictions is that the reduced retail spend will result in lower revenue for Government. All of these economic impacts (direct, indirect and induced) due to the proposed traffic management changes are estimated and presented subsequently in this report.
The demonstrable economic impacts due to the proposed traffic management changes outlined in the previous paragraph and presented subsequently in this report will also have a ‘human’ dimension, stemming from the fact that retailing is by-and-large an economic activity commanding low incomes (compared with other sectors of the economy). It follows that many or most of the people who will be affected by the proposed restrictions will be low-paid workers residing in less affluent parts of the capital who will struggle to find new employment when the traffic restrictions take effect, which will coincide with their implementation (i.e. the adverse economic impacts due to the traffic management proposals will be felt very quickly).
A further observation is that no account is taken in the Draft Plan regarding the transition to electric cars (electric bikes are mentioned on page 54 and ‘electric’ is mentioned for a second time on page 56 in reference to ACES (Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared vehicles/mobility services)).
According to Dr McCloughan, the targeted travel mode shares for (1) walking, (2) public transport and (3) cars, taxis and goods vehicles in 2028 specified in the Draft Plan would all be met/exceeded based on the trends which actually occurred during 2016-2019. On the other hand, the targeted travel mode share for cycling in 2028 (13% up from 6% in 2019) would not be met – even though cycling experienced by-far the highest growth of any of the travel mode shares during 2006-2019 (namely 159% or CAGR 7.6% as shown at the bottom of Table 4), which suggests that the cycling target in 2028 is set too high to the point of being unattainable.
2. Retailing in Dublin City Centre – Evidence from Survey Data and Estimation of the Economic Impacts of the Draft Plan
2.1 Introduction
Th central part of the report is the derivation of the economic impacts due to the proposed traffic management changes in the Draft Plan. The approach involves first establishing the total retail spend (or value of output) based on: (1) the observed travel mode shares from the Canal Cordon Report 2022; and (2) relevant market research from Behaviour & Attitudes on retail spend per person by mode of travel into the City Centre in 2022 (cited earlier in footnote 8, p. 5 of this report).
2.2 Derivation of the Total Retail Spend in Dublin City Centre based on the Actual Travel Mode Trends 2006-2019
The Behaviour & Attitudes survey commissioned by the NTA provides the following market research data on average spend per person travelling into the City Centre by the following modes of transport in 2022:
- Bus €75.49;
- Rail €108.01;
- LUAS €87.64;
- Car €131.21;
- Walk €85.19;
- Cycle €48.66;
- Taxi €99.29;
- Motorbike €15.
These expenditure figures can be re-valued for 2024 and 2028 using publicly available data on the index of average consumer prices in Ireland from the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook (April 2024) which imply average consumer price inflation (CPI) rates for Ireland of 5.21% in 2023, 2.38% 2024, 2.00% 2025, 1.95% 2026, 1.96% 2027 and 1.98% 2028 (figures subject to rounding). The CPI rates lead to the average spend per person by mode of travel to the City Centre in 2024 and 2028 in Table 5 below (which also shows the corresponding figures for 2022).
Using the travel mode shares from Table 4 for the years 2022, 2024 and 2028 permits derivation of the weighted average spend per person across the modes of transport in each of 2022, 2024 and 2028, as detailed in Table 6. The analysis shows that the weighted average spend per person across the transport modes (bus, rail, LUAS, car, walk, cycle, taxi and motorbike) would increase from €95.89 in 2022 to
€100.65 in 2024 and to €106.74 in 2028.
It is important to bear in mind that the weighted average spend per person figures given in Table 6 are based on the actual changes which occurred in people’s travel modes as detailed earlier in Table 3 and Table 4 (the latter is derived from the former). It is also seen that the mode of travel shares for 2022, 2024 and 2028 in Table 6 do not add up to 100% because there is a missing travel mode (which was not part of the Behaviour & Attitudes survey in 2022 for the NTA), namely goods vehicles.12 Of relevance, therefore, are the adjusted travel mode shares in the last three columns of Table 6 which permit the derivation of the weighted average spend per person (across the travel modes) in 2022, 2024 and 2028.
| Table 6: Weighted Average Retail/Shopping Spend per Person by Mode of Transport/Travel to Dublin City Centre in 2022, 2024 and 2028 | |||||||||
| Adjusted | Adjusted | Adjusted | |||||||
| Mode of | Mode of | Mode of | Mode of | Mode of | Mode of | ||||
| Average Spend | Average Spend | Average Spend | Travel | Travel | Travel | Travel | Travel | Travel | |
| per Person | per Person | per Person | Share | Share | Share | Share | Share | Share | |
| Mode of Transport | (2022) (€) | (2024) (€) | (2028) (€) | (2022) (%) | (2024) (%) | (2028) (%) | (2022) (%) | (2024) (%) | (2028) (%) |
| Bus | 75.49 | 81.31 | 87.92 | 34.62% | 30.16% | 29.73% | 34.80% | 30.27% | 29.82% |
| Rail | 108.01 | 116.34 | 125.80 | 14.28% | 20.40% | 22.90% | 14.36% | 20.48% | 22.97% |
| LUAS | 87.64 | 94.40 | 102.07 | 6.20% | 6.92% | 7.26% | 6.23% | 6.95% | 7.28% |
| Car | 131.21 | 141.33 | 152.82 | 27.68% | 20.29% | 15.97% | 27.82% | 20.37% | 16.02% |
| Walk | 85.19 | 91.76 | 99.22 | 9.56% | 12.86% | 13.91% | 9.61% | 12.90% | 13.95% |
| Cycle | 48.66 | 52.41 | 56.67 | 5.35% | 7.46% | 8.65% | 5.38% | 7.49% | 8.68% |
| Taxi | 99.29 | 106.95 | 115.64 | 1.26% | 0.94% | 0.75% | 1.27% | 0.94% | 0.75% |
| Motorbike | 15.00 | 16.16 | 17.47 | 0.52% | 0.60% | 0.54% | 0.53% | 0.61% | 0.54% |
| 99.47% | 99.64% | 99.70% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | ||||
| Weighted Average Spend Per Person (€) | 95.89 | 100.65 | 106.74 | ||||||
| Source: PMCA Economic Consulting analysis of the data contained in Table 4 and Table 5. | |||||||||
12 Goods vehicles’ activities in the City Centre tend to be with delivery and/or collection of goods rather than retail spending.
Using the weighted average spend per person figures in 2022, 2024 and 2028 in Table 6 McCloughan proceeds to derive the corresponding total spend per day in the City Centre in those years using the data in Table 3 corresponding to the years in question. Thus, for example, the total retail spend in the City Centre per day in 2022 is the product of the weighted average spend per person in that year (€95.89) and the number of people who travelled to the City Centre per day in that year (176,310 from Table 3, given as the sum of the number of people crossing the Canal Cordon in 2022 by all travel modes, apart from goods vehicles) (i.e. the 177,243 total person trips minus the 933 due to goods vehicles). However, it is necessary also to estimate of the number of people crossing the Canal Cordon whose principal purpose for coming into the City Centre was retail spending. The relevant number is the aforementioned 65% (outlined earlier in footnote 8 in reference to the Behaviour & Attitudes survey commissioned by the NTA in 2022).
This leads to the analysis presented in Table 7 which gives the key result in this part of the report, namely that the total retail spend in Dublin City Centre in 2028 is €20,280,768 per day or €7,402,480,258 (€7.4 billion rounded) in that year (2028) based on the actual travel mode trends during 2006-2019.
| Table 7: Total Retail/Shopping Spend in Dublin City Centre in 2022, 2024 and 2028 based on the Actual Travel Mode Trends during 2006-2019 | |||||||||
| Adjusted | Adjusted | Adjusted | |||||||
| Mode of | Mode of | Mode of | Mode of | Mode of | Mode of | ||||
| Average Spend | Average Spend | Average Spend | Travel | Travel | Travel | Travel | Travel | Travel | |
| per Person | per Person | per Person | Share | Share | Share | Share | Share | Share | |
| Mode of Transport | (2022) (€) | (2024) (€) | (2028) (€) | (2022) (%) | (2024) (%) | (2028) (%) | (2022) (%) | (2024) (%) | (2028) (%) |
| Bus | 75.49 | 81.31 | 87.92 | 34.62% | 30.16% | 29.73% | 34.80% | 30.27% | 29.82% |
| Rail | 108.01 | 116.34 | 125.80 | 14.28% | 20.40% | 22.90% | 14.36% | 20.48% | 22.97% |
| LUAS | 87.64 | 94.40 | 102.07 | 6.20% | 6.92% | 7.26% | 6.23% | 6.95% | 7.28% |
| Car | 131.21 | 141.33 | 152.82 | 27.68% | 20.29% | 15.97% | 27.82% | 20.37% | 16.02% |
| Walk | 85.19 | 91.76 | 99.22 | 9.56% | 12.86% | 13.91% | 9.61% | 12.90% | 13.95% |
| Cycle | 48.66 | 52.41 | 56.67 | 5.35% | 7.46% | 8.65% | 5.38% | 7.49% | 8.68% |
| Taxi | 99.29 | 106.95 | 115.64 | 1.26% | 0.94% | 0.75% | 1.27% | 0.94% | 0.75% |
| Motorbike | 15.00 | 16.16 | 17.47 | 0.52% | 0.60% | 0.54% | 0.53% | 0.61% | 0.54% |
| 99.47% | 99.64% | 99.70% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | ||||
| Weighted Average Spend Per Person (€) | 95.89 | 100.65 | 106.74 | ||||||
| Total Spend per Day in November (€) | 10,989,204 | 16,541,567 | 20,280,768 | ||||||
| Total Spend in Year (€) | 4,011,059,400 | 6,037,671,996 | 7,402,480,258 | ||||||
| Source: PMCA Economic Consulting analysis of the data contained in Table 4 and Table 5. | |||||||||
2.3 Derivation of the Total Spend in Dublin City Centre based on the Targeted Travel Mode Trends to 2028 in the Draft Dublin City Centre Transport Plan by DCC and the NTA
We next carry out corresponding analysis (to that shown in Table 7) based on the travel mode targets given in the Draft Plan and then consider the difference between the targets and the actuals (i.e. in the absence of the proposed traffic management changes in Dublin City Centre).
Table 8 below shows the travel mode shares in 2022, 2024 and 2028 implied by the travel mode shares for walking, cycling, public transport (the sum of bus, rail and LUAS) and cars, taxis and goods vehicles specified in the Draft Plan. More precisely, for walking, the Draft Plan targets a travel mode share of 13% in 2028, which represents a CAGR of 1.9% on the 11% observed in 2019; and the corresponding CAGRs for cycling, public transport and cars, taxis and goods vehicles are 9%, 0.6% and -5.8%. The respective CAGRs in turn permit derivation of the travel mode shares in each of 2022, 2024 and 2028, thereby enabling the corresponding analysis as presented in Table 7 to be undertaken for the scenario of the targeted mode shares in 2022, 2024 and 2028.
Thus, in the analysis of the targeted travel mode trends, for 2022 (by way of example), McCloughan incorporates the targeted 55% for public transport in that year and then allocates the shares for bus, rail and LUAS making up the public transport mode based on their actual shares of public transport in that year; working in a similar fashion, McCloughnan takes the 24.3% share in respect of cars, taxis and goods vehicles and allocate that among the constituents cars, taxis and goods vehicles based on their observed shares of the composite category cars, taxis and good vehicles in 2022; while the targeted shares in respect of walking (11.6%) and cycling (7.8%) are included directly in the analysis of the targeted modes in 2022. The corresponding analysis is then applied for 2024 and 2028.
This leads to the results given in Table 9 based on the targeted travel mode trends contained in the Draft Plan. The key figure in Table 9 is €-141,253,366, which is given as the total spend in 2028 attributed to the scenario based on the targeted travel mode shares (i.e. €7,261,226,892 in Table 9) minus the corresponding total spend based on the actual travel mode trends (i.e. €7,402,480,258 from Table 7).
| Table 9: Total Retail/Shopping Spend in Dublin City Centre in 2022, 2024 and 2028 based on the Targeted Travel Mode Trends in the Draft Plan to 2028 | |||||||||
| Mode of Transport | Average Spend per Person (2022) (€) | Average Spend per Person (2024) (€) | Average Spend per Person (2028) (€) | Mode of Travel Share (2022) (%) | Mode of Travel Share (2024) (%) | Mode of Travel Share (2028) (%) | Adjusted Mode of Travel Share (2022) (%) | Adjusted Mode of Travel Share (2024) (%) | Adjuste Mode Trav Shar (2028) (% |
| Bus | 75.49 | 81.31 | 87.92 | 34.5% | 29.2% | 28.3% | 35.0% | 29.6% | 28.2 |
| Rail | 108.01 | 116.34 | 125.80 | 14.3% | 19.7% | 21.8% | 14.4% | 20.0% | 21.7 |
| LUAS | 87.64 | 94.40 | 102.07 | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9 |
| Car | 131.21 | 141.33 | 152.82 | 22.8% | 20.3% | 16.0% | 23.1% | 20.5% | 15.9 |
| Walk | 85.19 | 91.76 | 99.22 | 11.6% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 13.0 |
| Cycle | 48.66 | 52.41 | 56.67 | 7.8% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 13.0 |
| Taxi | 99.29 | 106.95 | 115.64 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7 |
| Motorbike | 15.00 | 16.16 | 17.47 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5 |
| 98.7% | 98.7% | 100.2% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0 | ||||
| Weighted Average Spend Per Person (€) | 92.77 | 99.94 | 104.70 | ||||||
| Total Spend per Day in November (€) | 10,631,950 | 16,425,493 | 19,893,772 | ||||||
| Total Spend in Year (€) | 3,880,661,810 | 5,995,304,919 | 7,261,226,892 | ||||||
| Absolute Change (Target – Actual) | -130,397,590 | -42,367,077 | -141,253,366 | ||||||
| % Change (Target – Actual) | -3.3% | -0.7% | -1.9% | ||||||
| Source: PMCA Economic Consulting analysis of the data contained in Table 4 and Table 5. | |||||||||
2.4 Derivation of the Differential Economic Impacts due to the Draft Plan by DCC and the NTA
The analysis so far reveals that the proposed traffic management changes in the Draft Plan would lead to a reduction in retail spend in the City Centre (i.e. the Canal Cordon Area) in 2028 (when all of the proposed changes are due to be completed) of €141,253,366 (from Table 9). This is the reduction in direct retail spend or value of output due to the Draft Plan from which PMCA proceeda to derive the direct impacts for GVA (gross value added), employment, wages and revenue to the Exchequer (the Irish Government). It then derives from the direct impacts the corresponding knock-on impacts (both the indirect and the induced impacts) using economic impact multipliers and finally arrive at the overall total monetary economic impact of the Draft Plan across all sectors of the Irish economy in 2028.13
17 https://data.oecd.org/tax/tax-revenue.htm.
3. Conclusion
The analysis conducted for and presented in this report, which is based on relevant data, including the travel mode data in the Canal Cordon Report 2022, reveals that the traffic management proposals contained in the Draft Dublin City Centre Transport Plan 2023 by Dublin City Council and the National Transport Authority would have a significantly adverse impact on the economy of the City Centre, the monetary total impact of which is estimated in this report at €390,585,676 in 2028 (when all the proposed measures will be in place). The estimate in 2028 is equivalent to €361,001,121 in current (2024) price terms. This impact is inclusive of both the direct and the knock-on economic impacts in retailing and other sectors of the Irish economy. In employment terms, the proposals set out in the Draft Transport Plan would result in the loss of 1,787 jobs directly in retailing in the City Centre and give rise to the potential for even more such losses in other sectors of the Irish economy, estimated in this report at 4,455, meaning the loss or threat to up to 6,242 jobs in the country in retailing and other sectors reliant upon the retailing sector, which naturally enough would be a substantial adverse economic impact for the country.
