Fine Gael may run - Village Magazine

10June 2015

UMOURS and predictions of an

Autumn election have been

spreading like summer gorse ﬁre

over recent weeks with reports that

Fine Gael is preparing its national

advertising campaign for a run to the

country soon after the October budget.

A number of factors could point to a

November campaign including the

opinion polls that have consistently

placed Fine Gael as the most popular

party and the fact that the results in the

recent Carlow Kilkenny by-election

suggest that it could rely on the handful

of right-wing independents likely to be

elected under the Renua or Shane Ross

banners.

The meltdown in Labour’s vote in a

constituency where it held a seat over

generations could also inﬂuence the

decision of the senior FG strategists as

to when to pull the plug on the coali-

tion, although their junior partners

have not yet conceded that their future

is completely bleak.

Labour can point to the agreement

reached with public-service workers

which will put €, in the pockets of

low- and middle- income workers over

the next two years as well as restore

pay for higher earners and provide

assurances to employees across the

health, education and local-authority

sectors that their jobs will not be out-

sourced. It can also argue that the

election should be delayed to the new

year until the beneﬁts of these pay

increases and the expected tax and USC

concessions in Budget  reach

public- and private- sector pay packets.

The sale of Aer Lingus was an

undoubted blow to Joan Burton’s

troops, even though the government

stake had been diluted in signiﬁcance

by Fianna Fáil all those years ago, but

other legislation – albeit less than

robust – which recognises collective-

bargaining rights for workers will

appeal to the working-class base which

has been deserting the party over the

past four years.

The by-election results show that

Lucinda Creighton’s project could

throw up enough seats to get her into

cabinet in an FG-led government. The

Ross gang too are solely interested in

cabinet seats. This all serves to dimin-

ish the chances of Enda Kenny having

to distastefully share power with the

old enemy, Fianna Fáil.

The by-election also threw up a

potential interesting development on

the left of the political divide. This is

because Sinn Fein’s Kathleen Funchion

(%) and the hard-left candidates

from People before Proﬁt (PBP) and the

Anti-Austerity Alliance (AAA) (with

, between them) took , more

ﬁrst preference votes than the victori-

ous Fianna Fáil candidate, Bobby

Aylward.

The eﬀorts to develop an alternative

platform or charter for the left bringing

SF, smaller parties, Left TDs such as

Mick Wallace, Clare Daly, Thomas Prin-

gle, Catherine Murphy and others

together with the RightWater unions

and community groups will continue at

a meeting in Dublin in mid-June.

Already the prospects of an agree-

ment embracing all these elements

looks dim given the reluctance of PBP

and the ‘pure’ socialists of the AAA to

engage with others who do not accept

their rigid positions on a range of

issues, including how to run a civilised

policy debate.

Others on the trade-union, SF and

independent-left side of the equation

are unhappy with any suggestion that

the RightWater movement could or

should be transformed into a political

party.

However, if a loose alliance were to

develop a charter of credible policies on

taxation and spending, and on the solu-

tions required to ﬁx our ailing public

services, the low-wage economy and

widespread poverty it could increase

the numbers of left-wing candidates,

and the numbers elected to the next

Dáil.

Meanwhile, the latest controversy

surrounding the Fine Gael’s most prom-

inent and richest supporter, Denis

O’Brien, and his dealings with IBRC and

Siteserv, as well as his other recent

acquisitions, has no doubt served to

focus the minds of party strategists on

the beneﬁts of a November election,

before the next crisis is too far down

the tracks. •

The by-

election

results show

that Lucinda

Creighton’s

project could

throw up

enough seats

to get her

into cabinet

in an FG-led

government.

This serves to

diminish the

chances of

Enda Kenny

having to

distastefully

share power

with the old

enemy, Fianna

Fáil

“

NEWS Election

Fine Gael may run

Autumn election is possible, and the Left is divided. By Frank Connolly