Retrograde results reﬂect recalcitrant republic

March 2016 3 3

herecentGeneralElectionwasaverygood

oneforSinnFéin.Weincreasedournumber

ofTDsfrom14toOnethingisclear:theafter-

mathpromisestobefarmoreinterestingthan

theinsipidelectioncampaign,acampaign

denedbythemonotonyofthegovernment’s‘Keepthe

RecoveryGoing’message.Itmayhaveresonatedwith

theselectfew,butmostreactedwithanincredulous,

‘Areyouforreal?’

Theemploymentguresmaybeup,butthepeople

injobsarestillfeelingthepincheightyearsafterthe

crash.Meanwhile,ourpublicservicesappeartobeget

tingworse.Mostpeople-eventhosewithprivate

healthinsurance-haveexperiencedthehorrorof

watchingalovedoneonanAandEtrolley.Theopposi-

tionpartiessensedthatchangeinthepublicmood.

FiannaFáil,withitsngerbackonthepublicpulse,

devisedasetofpoliciesthatreectedpeople’scon-

cerns.Tobefair,thiswasn'tjustFiannaFáilfocus-group

politics.MicheálMartin,ascomesacrossinhisrecent

Villageinterview,doeshaveacommitmenttosocial

justiceandhassteeredthepartytotheleftofFineGael.

Theideologicaldifferencesmaybeslightbuttheyare

discernibleandmakeacoalitionlesslikely.Thereare,

ofcourse,othermercenaryreasonswhythegrandcoa-

litionmaynothappen.FiannaFáilwontheelection.It

wasn’taknockout,butithad/hasFine

Gaelontheropes.Arematchatitstime

ofchoosingwouldsuititmuchbetter

than it would a demoralised, soul-

searching,FineGaelparty,whichhas

fundamental problems. Inevitably,

therewillbeasimplisticfocusonthe

party leader. In post-election inter-

viewspledgesof allegiancetoEnda

fromcabinetministershavebeen

noticeablyabsentorhalfhearted.Big

Phil,hisprotectorinchief,isnolonger

aroundtosortoutanyoftherenegades.

The heave seems inevitable. Will it

cometothat?Orwillitbeadignied

resignationlikeEamonGilmore’s.The

formerLabourleaderwastreatedmercilesslybyJoan

Burtonwhointurnwillndherleadershipquestioned

bythepartyfaithful.TheLabourParty'smaulingbythe

voters was entirely predictable. Bleating on about

havingtomakeharddecisionsdoesn'twinyoumuch

sympathy,astheGreensdiscoveredlasttimeout.

Labourcalculatedthat,havinglosttheworkingclass

votetoSinnFéinandleft-leaningparties,itcouldcount

onthesociallyliberalmiddleclassesforsupport.The

factisthatabortionhasbeenshownnottobeaden-

ingissueeitherway.Thosewhowantedtorepealthe

eightamendmentdidn'tgetatailwind,andthosevehe

mentlyopposedtoabortion,likeLucindaCreighton,

werekickedout.Likewise,themarriagereferendum

wasseenaseatenbread.FineGaelandallotherparties

hadmanagedtoappropriatethatliberalspaceeffec-

tively-surewe’reallliberalsnow,somehavinggothere

abitlaterthanothers-butwhocares.Otherelectoral

tacticsbackred.ThepoliticalBankingInquirysimply

muddiedthewatersandshowedthatthelastgovern-

menthadfewoptions,andthatthesamepro-cyclical

expansionary policies were advocated by all the

parties.

TheGreenresurgenceowesmuchtothehardwork

andunstintingoptimismofEamonRyan.Notevenhis

narrowlossintheEuropeanelectionscouldstophis

gallop,andindeeditprovedtobeablessingindis-

guise.HeandCatherineMartinarethedreamteam:a

moderate,articulateandphotogenicpair,whohavethe

capacitytoprovideaplatformforfurthergreensuc-

cess.Likeothernewlyelectedcandidates,theGreens

willhopethatanotherelectionwon’thappentoosoon.

Butthesignsonthatfrontarenotgood.Therejection

ofEamonRyan’sproposalforco-operationamongstthe

oppositionpartiesmeansthatthenewdawnforIrish

parliamentarydemocracywillhavetowait.Thosewho

thinkthatthiselectionwillresultinanewBorgenesque

Danishparliamentofprogressivelegislatorsaredelud-

ingthemselves.Instead,wemayreverttotheworst

typeofparish-pumphorse-tradingthatthecountryhas

ever witnessed. Wedon’t have a Scandinavian list

system;wehaveproportionalrepresentationwiththe

singletransferrablevote,anelectoralsystemthathas

resultedinanarrayofindependentpoliticalefs.Right

now,shoppingliststhelengthofyourarm(inthecase

oftheHealyRaes-thelengthoftwoarms)arebeing

preparedforthehighestbidder.Itallpromisestobe

unseemlyandretrograde,andwillbe,perhaps,the

bestreectionofwhereweareasanationinthecen-

tenaryof1916.

Retrograde results

reﬂect recalcitrant

republic

Expect unseemly unScandinavian

horse-trading

by John Gormley

The rejection of Eamon

Ryan’s proposal for co-

operation amongst the

opposition parties means

that the new dawn for

Irish parliamentary

democracy will have

to wait