3 0 March 2016
A
sthedustsettlesandthevictors
andvanquishedcounttheirbless-
ingsornursetheirwoundsalleyes
areonthemainpoliticalkingmaker,
MicheálMartin.FiannaFáilislikely
toplaythelonggameandholdoutforaslong
as possiblebefore conceding that ithas no
optionbuttoshoreupaFineGae-ledgovern-
ment. There will be much hot air about the
responsibilitiesofothers,includingSinnFéin,
to‘stepuptothemark’butthepeoplehave
spokenandtheonlytallythatcountsisthecom-
bined90-plusseatsofthetwomainparties.
Thedownwardandsteadydriftoftheideo-
logicalrightfrom80%ofthevotelessthan
twenty years ago to just over 55% in 2016
makesasinglelargepartyoftherightanhis-
toric inevitability no matter how much the
leadersofFGandFFresistit.Butresisttheywill,
usinganyexcusetondreasonstodiffereven
thoughthereishardlyasliverbetweenthemon
fundamentalpolicies.
Itispossiblethattheirreluctancetocome
together or toagree aminority government
arrangement along with right-minded inde
-
pendentsorsmallerpartieswillleadtoanother
general electionwithinmonthsbuttheyare
bothsavvyenoughtoknowthattheelectorate
willnotrewardsuchfailure.
Besides,thereisnoguaranteethattheresult
willbeverydifferentwiththetwocentre-right
partieseachhoveringaroundthe25%markbut
unabletoreachthenumbersrequiredtoforma
stableandcoherentgovernmentthatcanimple-
menttheirprogrammes.
Anotherfactorthatwillchangethedynamic
thenexttimearoundisthecertaintythat,with
thepossibleexceptionofMartin,thefaceson
thetelevisionforthedebatesbetweenthefour
mainpartyleaderswillbedifferent.Kennyand
Burtonwillbedumpedbytheirrespectivepar-
tiesfortheirpoorshowinginGE16whileGerry
Adamscouldbereplacedbyayoungerleader
duringthecomingDáilterm.
AsthetwopartiesoftheRightplayhardto
get,theLeftcannotclaimthehistoricbreak-
through that some are hailing. Labour has
sufferedatraumaticimplosionandjustman-
agedtoholditsspeakingrightsintheDáil.Sinn
Féin increased its numbersbut advancedto
nowherenearwhatseemedpossiblejustafew
monthsago.Obtainingjustover13%ofrst
preferencevotesiswaydownonthe17-24%it
polledconsistentlyoverthepreviouseighteen
months.
A relentless and hostile campaign led by
IndependentNewsandMediaandthedifcul-
ties Adamsfacedduringsomeoftheleader
debatesandinone-on-oneinterviewswerecer-
tainlyfactorsinthislatedropinsupport.But
partystrategistswillalsobelookingattherise
ofthefarleftinurbanareaswhichateintoits
potential vote, and atmistakes such as the
three candidate experiment in Donegal as
issuestobeaddressed.
Thatsaid,SinnFéinhasincreaseditsvoteby
50%andhasaraftofnew,yetexperienced,
menandwomeninthe32ndDáilprovidinga
solidplatformforitsprojectofleadingaleft-
winggovernmentby2020.Adamsbroughtin
ImeldaMunsterinLouthandhasasecureseat
intothedistantfuture.Anydecisionbyhimto
stepdownwillbedictatedbyhisperceptionof
thebestinterestsoftheparty,northandsouth,
andnotbyhispoliticalormediaopponents.
Itwassomethingofanexaggerationonthe
partoftheAAA-PBPtodescribetheoutcomeas
apoliticalearthquake,lessstillarevolution,
whentheymanagedtopullinjust4%ofthevote
betweenthem.Dancingonthepoliticalgrave-
stones of the Labour casualties is not only
crudebutexposestheirvisceralandincorrect
tendencytobelievethattheyaretheonlytrue
believersintheworldofprogressives.Itisa
viewwhichguaranteeslong-termirrelevance
andpoliticalimpotence.
As the noise subsided in the immediate
The left must prepare
for the next election
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are
right-wing, unreconstructed and will
eventually merge
by Frank Connolly
The next time around
with the possible
exception of Martin, the
faces on the television
for the debates between
the four main party
leaders will be different
POST-ELECTION