Transfer pattern augurs well for Left

3 2 March 2016

ransfersmatterunderproportionate

representationthoughperhapsmore

forpsephologistsandpartytacticians

than in terms of actual electoral

difference.

NoelWhelan,forexample,notesthat:“only

12or13ofthe158deputiesinthenewDáilwill

win their seats because of transfers. If we

stopped counting after the rst counts and

declaredtheresults,allbutadozenorsoofthe

seats would have been lled by the same

people”.

Themostdramaticdifferencetransfersmade

wasofMaureenO’Sullivan,anotablygentle

andnon-partisanindependentinDublinCen-

tral. She polled badly on rst preferences,

gettingjust1,990votes.Thequotawas5,922.

Shewasinsixthplace.Everyoneassumedshe

wasoutforthecountbutintheendshetookthe

lastofthethreeseats.

In the same constituency in 2007 Bertie

Ahern,thenascendantTaoiseach,broughtin

hisrunning-mateCyprianBradyin2007,though

hehadpolled939rstpreferences.Theonly

othercandidateevertobeelectedwithfewer

than1000rstpreferenceswasBrianO’Higgins

(laterPresidentofSinnFéinfrom1931–1933)

elected in Clare in 1923 on DeValera’s

transfers.

TheRighttoChangecampaign,which

involvedaround100candidates,bothpartyand

non-party,helpedSinnFéintosecuretransfers

thatpushedanumberoftheircandidatesover

theline.Aswellasastrongtransferpattern

(76%asopposedto58%in2011)betweenSF

candidatesrunninginthesameconstituency

thepartyenjoyedagoodreturnofmorethan

23%fromotherleftcandidateswhoendorsed

thecampaign.

InDublinBayNorth,whichhadoneofthe

longestcountsintheelection,DeniseMitchell

ofSinnFéinwasassistedbysignicanttrans-

fersfromJohnLyonsofPeoplebeforeProt

(PBP) as well as from her party colleague,

MicheálMacDonnchawhowaseliminatedatan

earlierstage.

Similarly,SFcandidateandtradeunionist,

LouiseO’Reilly,won aseat followingstrong

transfersfromBarryMartin,alsoofPBPanda

running mate of Clare Daly’s in the Fingal

constituency.

RichardBoydBarrettwhowasalwayslikely

totakeaseatinDunLaoghaire,washelpedby

thevotestransferredfromSinnFéincandidate

ShaneO’Brienonhiselimination.

Acrossthecountry,therewereotherexam-

ples of the Right to Change arrangement

benettingsuccessful candidates. AAA-PBP

transferredsignicantlymorevotestoSinnFéin

than anyother partywith independentsthe

nextblocktogainfromtheirtransfers.

SinnFéinperformedexceptionallyinitsinter-

naltransferswithanunprecedentedrateof76%

whichaugurswellforitsfutureprospectswhere

itstandstwocandidates.SinnFéinhashistori-

callybeenquitetransferunfriendly,butin2016

theyhaveimprovedsignicantlyontheirown

transfersaswellastaking28%ofthetransfers

fromAAA-PBP.WiththeexceptionofDonegal

whereitoverrateditschancesoftakingthree

oftheveseats,leavingPádraigMacLochlainn

astheparty’smostprominentcasualty,itcame

closeinseveralotherconstituenciestobringing

inarunningmate.

FineGaelalsodisplayedstrongtransferdis-

cipline.ThetransferratebetweenFineGael

candidateswasmuchbetterthanthatbetween

FiannaFáilcandidates.

In2016thisdisciplinebroughtFineGaelan

evenbiggerseatbonusthanitgotin2011.

Itbenetedfrom54%ofitsowntransfersas

wellas53%ofthoseofLabourcandidates.

Whatisalsoevidentandperhapsaharbinger

ofthefutureisthenumberoftransfersbetween

FineGaelandFiannaFáil.Whereacandidate

hadnorunningmateorheorshehadbeenelim-

inatedorelected,FineGaelwasmorelikelyto

transfertoitsbigright-wing rivals thanany

otherpartyandviceversa.18%ofFFtransfers

wenttoFGcandidatesand16%ofFGtransfers

nishedupwithFF.

Asthetwobeastspreparethegroundforan

historiccoalitionitwouldseemthattheirsup-

porters do not share the view that their

differenceswouldmaketheendingofcivilwar

politicsimpossible.

Transfer pattern

augurs well for Left

Right2Change transferred well,

SF exceptionally and FF and FG voters are

beginning to recognise their indistinguishability

by Frank Connolly

POST-ELECTION