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78March/April 2022And whether or not Ireland likes it, on convergence. Two years ago this is what he told the Economistabout Europe: “So, frstly, Europe is gradually losing track of its history… Europe has forgotten that it is a community, by increasingly thinking of itself as a market, with expansion as its end purpose. This is a fundamental mistake, because it has reduced the political scope of its project, essentially since the 1990s. A market is not a community. A community is stronger: it has notions of solidarity, of convergence, which we’ve lost, and of political thought. Secondly, a change in American strategy is taking place; thirdly, the rebalancing of the world goes hand in hand with the rise—over the last 15 years—of China as a power, which creates the risk of bipolarisation and clearly marginalises Europe. And add to the risk of a United States/China “G2” the re-emergence of authoritarian powers on the fringes of Europe, which also weakens us very signifcantly. Finally, added to all this we have an internal European crisis: an economic, social, moral and political crisis that began ten years ago. Europe hasn’t re-lived civil war through armed confict, but has lived through selfsh nationalism. In Europe there has been a north-south divide on economic issues, and east-west on the migration issue, resulting in the resurgence of populism, all over Europe. These two crises—economic and migration—hit the middle classes particularly hard. By raising taxes, by making budgetary adjustments which hurt the middle classes, which I believe was a historic mistake. That’s incidentally what lies behind the rise in extremism throughout Europe. A Europe that has become much less easy to govern”.The Economist gives Macron an 80% chance of re-election. He has said and done what he thinks. It’s good to understand him. History if not ideology is on his side. these matters, has claimed that “Mr Macron has turned into something of a closet socialist”.The most visible evidence of the president channelling his inner Mitterrand is to be found in public spending. When the pandemic struck, Macron undertook to do whatever it took. Since then he spent ten times more last year to keep frms and furloughed workers going than France ever earned in a year from its wealth tax. France was already outspending all the Nordic countries on social programmes, and in indebtedness. Less noticed is a growing body of progressive rights and rules Mr Macron has also introduced: a doubling of guaranteed paternity leave to four weeks, with one week compulsory; fnes for frms that fail to close the gender pay gap.Internationally he has championed progressive multilateral causes, from a global minimum corporate-tax rate (a Macron pledge in 2017) to vaccines for Africa. France’s centre of political gravity has shifted to the right. This, not the left, is where his toughest competition will come from in April’s Presidential election. Macron’s nod to the left is studiously mild by French class-warrior standards, and in line with his intellectual roots. Not surprisingly his policy mix works quite well in practice, even if not in theory. Macron is much more philosophical than any other European leader, contrasting with a long-standing Irish weakness. His thinking, if he wins a second term, may drive the future of the EU. It centres on strength especially globally, on creating a community not a market, on tackling extremism and selfish nationalism and on indulging the disafected centrist middle classes. Four years ago I wrote early in Emmanuel Macron’s French Presidency that he had shown more leadership than the entire rest of the Western world since his election. “He claims to have found a political path between left and right, has made clear in the most elegant ways his disdain for Trump and has bowed to nobody, least of all Vladimir Putin, in sharing truths about international political thuggery”. I had a go at tracing his philosophic infuences largely through Paul Ricoeur of whom he was a protégé. Through Ricoeur essentially Macron is more likely to take an ethical approach, less likely to lie, more likely to keep promises, more likely to seek dialogue, see the other side and understand that two interpretations are possible of an act or situation, to be idealistic and secular.A good topical example is his role of interlocutor with Russia which bespeaks his willingness to see the other side and both his pragmatism and his idealism. He is touting the Russian perspective but is a friend to Ukraine and has made troops available just in case. Inevitably with that philosophical underpinning his overall record is dissonant. Macron has governed to the right of centre though he had promised to be in equal measure right and left of centre. A former investment banker, who scrapped the wealth tax and picked two centre-right prime ministers, he has moaned about the money the state spends on social welfare and does not idealise France’s comprehensivist welfare state. He has introduced looser labour laws into the rigid French system and he presided over the longest strikes since 1968 driven by his proposed pension reforms. He has been tough on security and Islamist extremism. Nevertheless the Economist magazine, not sympathetic on By Michael SmithINTERNATIONALGeneral government spending total, as % of GDP, 2020 or latest available (OECD)Macron – and on

76March/April 2022Fragile, vibrant, modern Ukraine faces being overrun by 190,000 Russian troops, driven by an autocrat frustrated at the loss of Russia’s one-time sphere of infuenceBy Michael SmithINTERNATIONALUkraineUkraine may have been a backwater, romanticised originally as the land of the Cossacks, until recently though it is the second biggest country in Europe (after Russia of course), but as of now it is a thriving democracy with a free media and free speech, and a vibrant economy, culture and social life. Kyiv and OdessaI visited Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, and Odessa, in August 2021. Both are sophisticated, afordable, modern cities with swanky bars full of beautiful people drinking cocktails, artesan IPAs and local champagne; lively parks swarming with rollerskaters; and cinemas showing Hollywood movies. Kyiv, where the average salary is €620 per month, is an IT hub, dotted with high-rise apartments under construction – their ubiquitous realtor-branded photographic hoardings in English showcase the cosmopolitan residents they seek to attract. Odessa is the best-preserved Neo-Classical city in the world with a ritzy beach resort. Odessa has the most stylish restaurants East of Paris. We stayed in the Londonskaya Hotel, a Renaissance style palace built by a French confectioner in 1828 near the steps that feature in Sergei Eisenstein’s revered 1925 movie Battleship Potemkin. He stayed there too.All changed in 2014Ukraine hit the spot after its 2014 ‘Revolution of Dignity’ when protesters at Maidan square in Kyiv ousted the democratically elected president Viktor Yanukovych a thuggish Russian-backed mafoso. By then he had purloined around $100bn, equal to more than half the annual economic output of Ukraine. Leaned on by Putin, in 2013 Yanukovych had abandoned Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU and moved to join its Russian-led rival. Yanukovych ordered police to shoot protesters who opposed him. When the crowds swelled, Yanukovych fed to Russia where he remains, poised, allegedly hauling $32 billion dollars in cash across the border in trucks as his power crumbled.History: shared heritageThe shared heritage of Russia and Ukraine goes back more than a thousand years to a time when Kyiv was the capital of the frst Slavic state, Kyivan Rus, the birthplace of both Ukraine and Russia as Vladimir Putin recently asserted: “Russians and Ukrainians are one people”. Ukraine has been carved up down the centuries by marauding empires. Mongols, Polish and Lithuanians in a way that Russia was not. In the 17th century, Russian tsars ruled lands to the east of the Dnieper River as "Left Bank" Ukraine while lands to the west of the Dnieper, or "Right Bank" Ukraine, were ruled by Poland, though in 1793 those lands too were annexed by Russia. A Russifcation policy banned the use of the Ukrainian language, and pressurised Ukrainians to convert to the Russian Orthodox religion. The people were Ukraine: Ireland to Russia’s UKKyiv, 2022 March/April 2022 77generally known as Rusyns or Ruthenians and the ethnonym Ukrainians came into wide use only in the 20th century after the territory of Ukraine obtained distinctive statehood in 1917. Stalin organised a famine that killed millions in the 1930s and shipped in lots of Russian speakers.Ties to RussiaBecause eastern Ukraine came under Russian rule much earlier than western Ukraine, people in the east have stronger ties to Russia, often speak Russian (Russian and Ukrainian share 60% stem words anyway) and have been more likely to support Russian-leaning leaders.Annexation of CrimeaCrimea was occupied and annexed by Russia, irritated by the defenestration of Yanukovych, in 2014, followed shortly after by a separatist uprising in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas that resulted in the declaration of the Russian-backed People’s Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Ukrainian forces have been fghting pro-Russia rebels in the east since 2014 in a confict that has killed some 14,000 people.Threat of imminent warExploiting its overwhelming military superiority, as Village went to press, Russia had amassed 190,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders and was expected to attack simultaneously on several fronts, from the north-east, the Donbas and Crimea. and Belarus, Airstrikes would underpin a lightning drive south to seize the capital, Kyiv. And encircle Ukraine’s army, neutralising the country and its leaders. The US estimates artillery, missile and bomb strikes and ground clashes could kill 50,000 civilians.WarAs Village went to print Putin had made an angry speech and moved troops into Luhansk and Donetsk which have been armed, fnanced and politically controlled by Russia since 2014. But until now were recognised as part of Ukraine.Putin has also sent his military on a “peacekeeping mission” to Ukraine, meaning that Russia will formally occupy sovereign Ukrainian territory for a second time following the 2014 annexation of Crimea. But in this case, Russia has not annexed the territories. A document signed by Putin on Monday also allows him to establish military bases or place missiles in the territories. The bourses were diving, Germany suspended its Nordstream gas-pipeline collaboration with Russia and Boris Johnson was tearing around fnding Russians to sanction.Invasion of Ukraine could destabilise former Soviet republics such as now independent Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (EU members), as well as Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine. Irish analogies and infuenceRussia’s relationship to Ukraine is clearly analogous to that of the UK to Ireland: a bigger and far more powerful neighbour, partially shares history, culture and religion with a division on ethnic rather than racial lines. Most Ukrainians are Eastern Orthodox Christians. A significant minority of Ukraine‘s population consider themselves Russian – analogously to the North of Ireland where a majority considers itself British frst and Irish second.It would be preferable if Ukraine signalled it will never join Nato but in any event Ireland should exercise its influence to support Ukraine, a beleaguered but honourable and modern country in retaining its independence from foreign interference and indeed carnage. Such is the foundation of the United Nations. SolutionsIt is forgotten that early in his frst Presidency Putin wanted to join both Nato and the EU – bonds that could now be ofered, long-term. Beyond that, we should use our limited infuence to see that the balance between Nato and