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Ireland's political and cultural magazine
3 0 April 2017
C
OVENEY’S ACTION plan for housing and
homelessness, ‘Rebuilding Ireland’,
was launched last July. But it is based,
in large part, on Alan Kelly’s 2014 social
housing strategy.
Back to 2017. The ESRI has calculated that for
a country of our population and size, we need to
deliver 25,000 homes every year, to meet the
needs of our people, whether for rental or pur-
chase, social or private housing.
TARGETS
Simon Coveney, now Housing Minister, has set
ambitious targets, including:
•
Doubling the number of new homes built to
25,000 by 2021, from a (disputed) 12,600 rate
in 2016
• €5.5bn over five years for social housing. The
most recent figures show that there are 91,600
households on the lists for social hous-
ing including homeless people
•
Ending the use of emergency accommodation
such as hotels for homeless families by the
end of June, though, according to Coveney:
“Since December, a total of 238 new emer-
gency beds have come into the system in
Dublin and a further 100 are earmarked to
come into operation shortly”.
• Limiting rent increases to 4% annually
Writing in the Sunday Times in early April, Cov
-
eney claimed as he often does: “12,600 houses
were built in 2015… and about 15,000 dwelling
were completed in 2016, up 18% on the 2015
figure, and connected to the grid by ESB net
-
works”. This is dishonest, even if the Minister
seems to be becoming paranoid about pretend-
ing that other indicators are used: “it is not the
only data [sic] we use – we have information on
social housing delivery and need and on private
planning permissions and construction directly
from local authorities”.
On 7 February the Housing Department issued
a statement claiming "14,932" completions in
2016 leading to the Irish Independent headline:
'Home building at highest levels since 2009...'.
Junior Minister Paudie Coffey confirmed to the
Dáil a mendacious figure of "15,256" homes com-
pleted in the year until the end of January, on 21
March.
And on 3 April, on 'Morning Ireland' Coveney
said "completions are up nearly 20 per cent".
Mel Reynolds showed in this magazine (Feb
-
ruary) that the number of homes built in 2016
was “not 15,000 but 7500”: “Thousands of exist-
ing vacant complete homes have been double
counted as new completions over the past five
years” because the Department of Housing
incompetently registers ESB connections as a
definitive gauge of completions, even though if
completion of a house is delayed it will be regis
-
tered twice by the ESB.
The fact is until Reynolds’ article the Minister
was content to use the 15,000 figure as a single
outward indicator. Commencements are incor-
rect, completions are not accurate and
obsolescence has been ignored. Reynolds also
claims, “the number of tenants renting may also
be underestimated due to CSO measurement
methodology”.
Indeed the 7500 figure gives the Department
the implausible benefit of the doubt. It uses
stamp-duty figures as an indicator of comple-
tions. However the 3600 2016 stamp-duty
transactions probably represent an inflation of
the completion number. This is likely to be much
lower since stamp-duty is paid for existing com
-
pleted vacant units sold to new buyers by an
original developer who had to sit on units during
the downturn.
The Minister and his Department know all this
but they continue to fill the airwaves and the
press with falsity and lies. The Minister needs to
address reality on this important issue. So-
called ‘rapid builds’, to give immediate solutions
for the homeless, have been completed in one
Many housing targets are being manipulated
and missed
by Michael Smith
Housing
and Coveney
I is useful o keep in mind
Aln Kelly’s plns.
In November Kelly, hen Lbour
Miniser for he Environmen which
covered Housing, sid he
governmen would supply up o
, homes over he nex six
yers, including , socil
housing unis cos of €.bn.
"An enhnced prive renl secor"
would cree " more flexible nd
responsive sysem".
The socil-housing sregy would
come in wo phses, wih he firs of
, unis o be delivered by he
end of , seing rge of
, ddiionl unis nd ,
oher homes where mos of he ren
would be pid under he Se’s
Housing Assisnce Pymen, which
is replcing Ren Supplemen, nd he
Renl Assisnce Scheme.
The second phse, o be delivered
by he end of , se rge of
, such ddiionl unis nd
, such oher homes.
In fc fewer hn , locl
uhoriy nd prive-secor 'Pr V'
socil-housing unis were buil in
he following wo yers: nd
.
Not 15,000: 7500 at most
POLITICS
April 2017 3 1
place only: Poppintree, Ballymun - 22 units only,
despite proposals for hundreds across Dublin
and elsewhere.
Equally, the rate of social housing completion
is slow. In 2016 only 243 Local Authority and 37
developer-provided 'Part V' homes were com-
pleted - a total of less than 300 social-housing
units. Writing in the Examiner, Coveney claimed:
“Last year 18,300 social housing solutions were
put in place and this year that figure will be over
21,000 and we will spend €1.3bn making it so. In
terms of social housing construction, 650 homes
were built last year, 1,800 are under construction
on sites around the country and 8,430 are at vari-
ous stages in the pipeline of delivery”.
In other words, two thirds of the ‘solutions’
delivered for social housing came through hous-
ing assistance payments. Critics would say
Coveney is missing his mark. Activists on the
ground, including housing agencies, say any
results will take time. In fact, many consider the
existing stock of 200,000 empty homes nation
-
wide should be more heavily focused on by
officials instead of the push to construct new
units.
In the Examiner, Coveney also noted:
“We are a long way off the requisite 25,000
annual home starts that are the target, but the
most recent statistics are positive and indicate
that at last we are moving in the right direction. I
have introduced a series of new schemes worth
hundreds of millions of euro to get thousands of
vacant houses back into use for social housing -
the Repair and Leasing Scheme will see some
3,500 homes returned to use at a cost of €140
million. Last year, we spent €200m buying back
houses for social housing. We need to achieve
maximum delivery on some large strategic sites
that have been in a state of suspended animation
because critical infrastructure is missing. That’s
why the government brought in a €200m hous
-
ing infrastructure fund to unlock these sites”.
The recent RTÉ television documentary 'Ire-
land's Property Crisis' has again exposed the
human face of the housing shortage.
THE SIX PROBLEMS
Rent
It is too early to analyse the rent caps
introduced in December for 'Rent Pressure Zones
(RPZs)' which were extended beyond Dublin and
Cork to commuter towns and other cities in Janu
-
ary. It is probable that landlords in other areas will
hike up rates ahead of any possible cap being
introduced there. There is concern that towns
such as Dundalk, Drogheda, Maynooth, Grey
-
stones as well as the cities of Waterford and
Limerick have not been designated RPZs. While
some have welcomed the 4% annual rent rise cap,
others say rates in fact should have been forced
down or linked to the consumer price index.
New builds
The Government has promised to help
double the number of new homes constructed
annually to 25,000 by 2021.
Eight months since the launch of Rebuilding
Ireland, Department of Environment data shows
14,932 new homes were completed in 2016, an
increase of 18% on 2015.
The figures are based on ESB connections.
Planning permissions were also granted for
16,375 new homes in 2016, a 26% rise on the pre-
vious year.
Affordability
€280,000 is seen as a tide line for
affordable housing, being 3.5 times two average
industrial wages (€70,000 combined). This quar-
ter the average three-bed home in Dublin
exceeded this price, at €290,000.
Indeed for the first time in a decade there is
serious discussion of a return to boomtime
prices. Since rising prices reflect either exces-
sive demand or inadequate supply this indicates
a problem.
A report from MyHome.ie, produced with
stockbroking firm Davy at the beginning of May,
suggested annual house price inflation is run-
ning at 9 per cent nationally and at 10.2 per cent
in Dublin, where supply shortages are most
evident.
Latest mortgage approvals from the Banking
and Payments Federation of Ireland (BPFI) show
a sharp rise in the number of people seeking
mortgage approval. In February 2017, 2,840
would-be home buyers received mortgage
approval, up from 1,996 a year earlier. However,
it is worth noting that in 2006 drawdowns were
running at a rate of an extraordinary 12,500 a
month.
The cause of all this is clear: a politically-moti-
vated help-to-buy tax break for first-time
purchasers and a decision by the Central Bank
- following Government pressure - to ease mort
-
gage-lending rules. These changes are boosting
the profitability of builders, developers and the
banks but, apparently, not supply.
Two quarterly reports, from property web-
sites MyHome.ie and Daft.ie, linked the latest
price acceleration to the Government’s new tax
incentive scheme for first-time buyers and a
loosening of the Central Bank’s mortgage lend-
ing rules.
Social housing
The Government has promised to
build 47,000 new social housing units
by 2021 at a cost of €5.3bn. It is a huge commit-
ment, especially after almost a decade which
saw little or no social housing development.
However the percentage of private develop-
ments that must be given to social housing (‘Part
V’) has been reduced from 20% (under Fianna
Fáil and Noel Dempsey before Martin Cullen
changed it) to 10% and, though it is no longer
permitted to give cash instead of social units, it
is still possible to give land instead. In early April
the Housing department revealed that the pri-
vate sector contributed only 37 social-housing
units in 2016, half the previous year's diminui-
tive figure. Part of the reason for the low figures
is that Part V is triggered by schemes of more
than 10 units but for example in 2016 only 400
units were built in such schemes.
Just three Part V homes are being acquired
every month. At this rate it will take 130 years to
reach Minister Coveney's five-year target of
4,700 homes.
Other measures to reduce the estimated
90,000-long social housing waiting list include
expanding Housing Assistance Payments (HAP)
for renters and increasing the number of mixed
housing developments.
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3 2 April 2017
The facts are social housing new builds were
among the lowest in the state’s history last year.
Only 652 new social housing units were built.
While the department notes over 18,000 social
housing solutions were delivered, two thirds of
these involved HAP payments.
The rest included reusing void units, councils
buying existing stock and leasing homes among
options.
The issue is the huge backlog in social hous
-
ing development.
As Sinn Féin notes: “Contrary to his massaged
figures, Mr Coveney did not meet the social
housing need of 18,000 families in 2016. The
total increase in social housing stock was a mere
2,204 units. Councils also refurbished 2,300
long-term vacant units”. In total, it says, “4,492
real social houses were brought on stream in
2016. The remaining 13,900 social housing
“solutions” were in fact private homes leased by
the State, the vast majority for just two years”.
Homelessness
Homelessness has been consistently
stated by this Government and its predecessor
to be the "number one priority" but it has
increased by 190% since 2014. Child homeless-
ness has increased by a shocking 250% in the
same period. The year from December 2015 to
December 2016 saw an astonishing 55% increase
in child homelessness. This same period saw a
28% rise in adult homelessness nationwide,
meaning that child homelessness increased at
double the rate of adult homelessness.
The most recent data from the Department of
the Environment for February show that adult,
child, and family homelessness all rose during
the month from January to February of this year.
There are now a record 2,546 children registered
as homeless sleeping in hotels, B&Bs and hos-
tels in Ireland, and 1,239 families (700 in hotels
and B&Bs alone). These are the highest numbers
ever recorded. Official homeless figures under-
estimate the extent of the crisis as they exclude
other cohorts in emergency accommodation
such as non-EU nationals and asylum-seekers.
Certainly, Simon Coveney’s promise to end the
use of emergency accommodation for the home-
less in hotels and B&Bs by the end of June is bold
but the record of the Department and its Minister
is not good.
As part of the plan to tackle homelessness,
the Government promised 200 rapid-build
homes by the end of 2016, a further 800 this
year, and a further 1,500 next year.
Just 22 have been built so far in Poppintree,
Dublin. It has failed here so far — despite many
units awaiting construction. The funds are there,
says Government.
Housing stock
This is the vaguest of the agendas.
Strategies include local authorities doing up and
reletting vacant units.
The housing agency is to buy vacant homes
from banks and sell them. The repair and leasing
scheme with a budget of €32m aims to help
owners prepare their properties for the rental
market and pressure is exerted on local authori-
ties to do up ghost estates and housing
developments that were left half-finished or
without facilities after the property crash.
Potentially, less than 7,000 units may be made
fit for living in, out of the estimated 200,000
empty units nationwide, under proposed
schemes with Rebuilding Ireland, according to
TDs.
This is especially acute in Dublin where there
are an estimated 40,000 empty units.
The figures given for housing completions 2015-2017 are simply and definitively untruthful and misleading. It is extraordinary
that the political Department of Housing and the normally scrupulous Central Statistics Office continue to tout them though the
deficiencies have been highlighted by Mel Reynolds in Village and elsewhere.
Section 10 of the Statistics Act, 1993, under the crucial heading "Functions" states:
10.(1) The functions of the Ofce shall be the collection, compilation, extraction and dissemination for statistical purposes of information relating to
economic, social and general activities and conditions in the State.
(2) The Ofce shall have authority to co-ordinate ofcial statistics compiled by public authorities to ensure, in particular, adherence to statistical
standards and the use of appropriate classications.
(3) The Ofce shall have authority to assess the statistical potential of the records maintained by public authorities and, in conjunction with them,
to ensure that this potential is realised in so far as resources permit.
It cannot really be disputed that the CSO is intended by law to "co-ordinate" the Housing Department's failure of "adherance to
statistical standards", and not merely to repeat that failure.
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POLITICS
