Autumn ’15 tsunami for coalition

August/September VILLAGE

awry. Our Taoiseach is a far cannier operator than the

superior beings in Labour can appreciate. He won’t

allow Labour to run away with the referendum, and if

he senses a plot he could steal a march on Joan by calling a

snap election. It’s his prerogative

after all. He knows the game has

changed now. There are no more

chumsy photocalls as there were

with Eamon Gilmore. The press

photos now show a resolute and

stony-faced Joan, possibly on the

advice of Labour handlers.

The message is clear: under

Joan, Labour will not be sub-

sumed by Fine Gael. Some people

in Labour have calculated that

votes lost to the Shinners in the locals will return. I

wouldn’t be too sure. They may have rid themselves of

Eamon (‘Labour’s way or Frankfurt’s way’) and Pat (‘Sure

isn’t that what you do in elections’) but the legacy of bro-

ken promises remains.

Those Labour TDs who really do wish to retain their

seats could do worse than listen to the advice of the

former Labour councillor, Paddy Bourke. Speaking at

a gathering of former Dublin mayors, Paddy revealed

why he chose to run as an Independent in the local elec-

tions. “When you see a tsunami coming – you run”, he

told some of his former comrades.

No matter when this election takes place, the tsunami

is coming. •

The legacy

of broken

promises

remains

“

N May of  I predicted in this column that Eamon

Gilmore would step down as Labour leader before

the General Election to be replaced by Joan Burton.

So now that it had all come to pass, as though perfectly

scripted, can I apply my soothsayer’s powers again? I’ll

give it a go. Without equivocation, and with no hedging

of any bets I say: the General Election will take place in

the autumn of .

Let me give you my reasons for this. The big tactical

question for the junior partner in coalitions is the man-

ner of their exit from government. It needs to be managed

carefully. Ideally, the smaller party tries to demonstrate

its distinctiveness and eﬀectiveness in order to restore

lost credibility and regain lost votes. This is often done

by staging a convincing bust-up with the senior partner

in government. All ﬁne in theory, but it carries a degree

of risk. The PDs got it right with Fianna Fáil in their row

over the Beef Tribunal; but in  they got it spectac-

ularly wrong.

Labour know – or at least should know – that no mat-

ter what happens now they are going to lose a lot of votes.

Their aim is to limit the damage and save as many seats as

they can. Choosing Joan as leader is the ﬁrst part of their

battle plan; choosing the time of the battle is the second

part. By cutting and running they risk losing Fine Gael

transfers, particularly if the row is acrimonious. And

it’s by no means certain that the traditional transfers

from the Left will return. Sinn Féin, the smaller par-

ties of the Left and the independents will immediately

accuse Labour of opportunism and cynicism: the party

that gave us austerity has suddenly discovered a con-

science. A budget row with Fine Gael could also be seen

by many voters as contrived. So why would they do it?

They’ll do it because it’s within their power, a last desper-

ate measure to assert themselves, a way of lashing out, of

going down ﬁghting for principles that they abandoned

on entering government. It’s a strange combination of

political calculation and a twisted survival instinct.

And why autumn ? Labour needs a big policy

win under its belt. They see the Marriage Equality ref-

erendum – assuming that it passes – as a major Labour

victory, and will play it for all it’s worth. That gives them

the entire summer of  for pre bust-up propaganda

and allows them room to engineer the row. In July and

August next year we can expect a series of leaks about

tensions in Cabinet. It will be left initially to backbench-

ers, but will escalate into a series of nicely choreographed

tit-for-tat events as Fine Gael backbenchers rise to the

bait. All good harmless fun – until senior Ministers

begin to weigh in. And ﬁnally Joan, the leader of New

Improved Labour, will issue an ultimatum, which Enda

cannot accede to. If it all goes as planned, Labour could

perhaps save some seats. But it could just as easily go

Labour’s

strategy:

1) Joan;

2) choose the

time

Autumn ’15 tsunami for coalition

JOHN GORMLEY

the Taoiseach and part 1 of Labour’s plan