Big-party conservatism led to rise of others

5 2 April 2016

he elephant in the room at the so-far abortive

meetings in Leinster House to form a viable

government is the presence of a once popular

leader now entirely without credit.

Enda Kenny even assumed a very low pro-

ﬁle in the centenary commemorations of the 1916

Rising. His presence was easily overshadowed by that

of President Michael D Higgins - who occupies a posi-

tion of symbolic power in our modern day republic.

The Independent TD and commentator Shane Ross

understood this very well when he stated that he was

gazing at a "political corpse" when he was part of the

ﬁrst discussions with the acting Taoiseach. Independ-

ents have, and need, a keen nose for public opinion

since they have no big political-party apparatus

designed to keep them informed.

Ross was then extensively criticised for his use of

language by the politically correct classes who felt he

had disrespected the ofﬁce of Taoiseach as well as by

the supporters of a wounded Fine Gael.

Ross is in substance correct. It is virtually impossible

to install a new government if it involves putting Enda

Kenny in as its head. To do this would be to truly pervert

the course of public opinion, as expressed in the gen-

eral election.

If things are changed utterly then it is because the

election of 2016 delivered a hammer strike from the

electorate to both Enda Kenny and the Fine Gael party.

Willie O'Dea, one of the brightest men in the Dáil, also

captured this point well in a recent article in the Sunday

Independent. By coincidence the same paper has pro-

duced a poll which shows that Micheál Martin, not Enda

Kenny, is the one most favoured by public opinion to be

the next Taoiseach.

A large section of the media and commentariat

expressed surprise at the scale of Fine Gael's defeat - it

seems the more comfortable members of the commen-

tariat fell for the Fine Gael spin that Labour would lose

but Fine Gael would hold

its own.

The failure of the Fine

Gael-led government started

with the water-charges ﬁasco and

continued into the election where Kenny made a pre-

eminent contribution to the party's defeat. He cannot

escape blame on this front. It also appears that he has

at least three hungry wolves within his own ranks who

wish to replace him - Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney and

Frances FitzGerald.

Enda Kenny was comprehensively outshone in the TV

debates during the general election by Micheál Martin

despite the fact that he has spent the past ﬁve years

strategically blaming Martin and Fianna Fáil for all of

the problems that beset the country. It simply did not

work. The public has moved on from the blame game,

even if Fine Gael has not.

Moreover, Kenny told people they would not under-

stand economics at the start of the campaign and

towards the campaign's end delivered the immortal

insult that people who did not like him or his policies

were " whingers". Fine Gael continue to defy public opin-

ion by presuming, in the post-election discussions, that

the party must be part of any government that is formed.

Caretaker Taoiseach Enda Kenny has now been

defeated on three occasions - all three defeats have

been very clear, public and formal - ﬁrst in the election

and twice now in the Dáil on votes to determine who

should become Taoiseach.

There are signs, with over 40 days gone since the

general election, that the public is wearying of the pos-

turing and pranks of the political class as they

collectively fail in the task of government formation.

The ﬁrst casualty of jadedness from the public will be

the independents who will see the fools’ pardon

extended to them in the election withdrawn if either no

government is formed or an election ensues.

Fianna Fáil +

Fine Gael

= Stable

Government but

a new election

might clear the

air

Big-party conservatism

led to rise of others

FF will support FG-led minority

government but a coalition must

be led by Martin

by Conor Lenihan

OPINION

by Conor

Lenihan

REALPOLITIK

COLUMNS

April 2016 5 3

One of the most dangerous statements

issued so far was by Fine Gael's Richard Bruton

who stated on Morning Ireland that he would

consider the formation of a Fine Gael minority-

led government but not participate nor

contemplate its polar opposite a Fianna Fáil-led

minority government. Fine Gael, including its

fabled leadership contenders, seems to believe

that the party has some sort of divine right to

be in government.

Leo Varadkar, for all his faults in Health,

seems to have got it right when he acknowl

edged openly that no government could be

formed unless it combined the parliamentary

numbers of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. The

numbers and the logic of the general election

are pointing that way but neither of the two big

parties wishes to accept that its rival should

lead in the political equation: Fianna Fáil + Fine

Gael = Stable Government.

Well before the election result was known I

indicated my own view that if the two big par-

ties were in touching distance of each other, in

levels of political support, then there was a real

chance that there could be a Fianna Fáil- Fine

Gael partnership government - with even the

possibility of a rotating Taoiseach.

The fact that this prediction, if you like, has

not happened so far is because of internal insti-

tutional resistance to the concept, or

competitive rivalry, from both parties. There is

also a huge, in my belief, misplaced fear in both

parties that by forming such a government they

will leave a wide-open door for Sinn Féin to

become the major force in opposition and the

government in the election that follows.

This conservative-mindedness, or risk aver-

sion, by the two big parties is precisely the

reason they have both so far lost support to

Sinn Féin, anti-austerity parties, and a broad, if

inchoate, collection of independents.The two

big parties no longer think big in terms of their

ambition. The bigger parties attract an older

(more reliable?) vote while the apparently more

radical parties capture the younger and more

socially disadvantaged vote.

The upshot of the failed attempt by Kenny to

put together a Partnership government of FF, FG

and apparently some rural independents is that

Fianna Fáil has declared its willingness, in

deﬁned circumstances, to give support to a Fine

Gael-led minority government with Enda Kenny

(its greatest asset according to one insider

quoted in the newspapers) presumably left in

charge of the country. Fine Gael has, despite

FF's generosity, ruled out a similar arrangement

with Micheál Martin in the saddle - and that

despite his obvious popularity for the role.

The FF-FG partnership coalition will only work

if it is Micheál Martin as Taoiseach with Enda

Kenny taking a back seat. It may in fact be too

early in the discussions to have this prospect

entertained and it may also be the case that

Fine Gael has no mechanism (or will, for that

matter ) to replace him.

Fianna Fáil and the independents have much

more leverage in this situation than Fine Gael.

Fine Gael seems slow to learn this lesson. The

picture from the discussions of Leo Varadkar

playing with his mobile phone as the Healy

Raes looked on is testimony in some ways to

where things are heading. It is a vignette not

unlike the one of Nero ﬁddling while Rome

burnt.

The reality is that it may take another 40

days, or even more, to put a government in

place. The public voted for a change of govern-

ment but they did not deﬁne who should lead

that changed government.The electorate, as

much as the crowd in Leinster House are to

blame for the current political imbroglio.

We now have new parties, fresh independ-

ents and new TDs. Perhaps they need the

cleaning of the air a new election might bring.

A drawn All