Menu
Ireland's political and cultural magazine
44 October/November 2023 October/November 2023 45
I
n February this year, the Taoiseach, Leo
Varadkar, told the Dáil there had been a
signifi cant jump in excess deaths over
the winter compared to other years.
He was responding to reports in The
Irish Examiner that showed a 20% increase in
death notices published on rip.ie between
December and January, compared to the same
period last year. The analysis also found an
increase compared to 2021, when the country
was in the depths of the one of the worst
periods of the Covid-19 pandemic.
These uno cial data were backed up by the
Health Protection Surveillance Centre, which
has monitored excess deaths in Ireland since
2009. In May, Minister for Health, Stephen
Donnelly, responded to a parliamentary
question from Mattie McGrath TD stating that
the excess deaths recorded over the winter
Deathly conspiracy
The fi gures for excess deaths are inconclusive which means they
at least show no evidence of conspiracy
By Conor O’Carroll
period were caused by increased pneumonia
and infl uenza mortality rates.
In July, however, Varadkar stated in the Dáil
that “the number of excess deaths varies from
year to year. In the past couple of years, there
has not been an increase”. This seemingly
contradictory statement has been latched
onto by those who continue to push an anti-
vax agenda surrounding the Covid-19 vaccine.
Countless blogs and conspiracy websites
have jumped on this comment, accusing the
Taoiseach of lying and even covering up what
they consider to be evidence of the vaccine’s
side e ects.
Among them is former Xposé presenter,
Aisling O’Loughlin, who writes about the
“so-called pandemic” and her rejection of
“the World Economic Forum’s agenda for their
future”.
Countless blogs and conspiracy websites have
jumped on this comment, accusing the Taoiseach of
lying and even covering up what they consider to be
evidence of the vaccine’s side effects
POLITICS
44 October/November 2023 October/November 2023 45
Eurostat fi gures, compiled and published by
the European Commission, show that Ireland
currently has one of the highest excess death
rates in Europe.
Figures for the fi rst six months of 2023 show
that Ireland has the highest excess death rate
across Europe, standing at 10.7%. The latest
available data for the month of June show
Ireland in second place, just behind Finland
and the Netherlands, with an excess death
rate of 13.6%. In fact, Ireland’s monthly excess
death rate has been above the EU average
since August last year.
There is a problem with the data, however.
The data for Ireland from 2020 onwards are
based on submissions from the Central
Statistics O ce (CSO) which has simply
scraped listings from rip.ie.
The Eurostat data are compared to a
baseline of o cial data for the years 2016-
2019, complicating the comparisons that can
be made.
The CSO’s own data are also often touted as
proof of a cover-up. The latest yearly summary
of vital statistics for 2022 shows that deaths
rose substantially last year. Up 19% when
compared with a decade ago.
But this doesn’t account for the surge in
population Ireland has seen since then; nor
does it factor in the ageing demographic,
making it an unreliable comparison.
When averaged out per 1,000 population,
the rise is not dramatic.
The uptick following the start of the
pandemic looks big, but the graph is skewed
due to small increments on the left-hand side.
In reality, deaths during the pandemic
increased 0.7 per 1,000 population, which
isn’t insignifi cant, but also falls within normal
levels across Europe.
Excess death models can vary widely
depending on methodology as well as the
source and quality of data.
The Health Protection Surveillance Centre,
as discussed earlier, monitors deaths in
Ireland using registered deaths data reported
daily from the General Register O ce. These
data are then also sent to EuroMOMO, which
Donnelly describes as “European mortality
monitoring activity, aiming to detect and
measure excess deaths related to seasonal
infl uenza, pandemics and other public health
threats”.
It is probably as close to o cial data as we
can get and, crucially, doesn’t involve taking
listings from rip.ie.
The data are inconclusive, proving nothing.
As the graphic, below, shows, despite some
large peaks during the pandemic, and more
recently over the previous winter period, for the
most part, Ireland’s excess deaths lie within
the normal range that should be expected.
The peaks above normal can be explained
by the pandemic in the fi rst two instances, and
by a multitude of factors for 2023. Everything
from a strong infl uenza season to weakened
immune systems as a result of the lockdown
and the resurgence of Covid contributed to a
peak that has already dissipated.
So it seems that, once again, the conspiracy
theorists are misplaced in their assessment of
the data. Ireland is not experiencing levels of
excess deaths never seen before, and any
peaks recorded are almost certainly not
caused by the Covid vaccine, which, for the
record, has been given to 5.55 billion people
worldwide.
As for Varadkar, while both his statements
were slightly contradictory, they also both
hold some truth.
Monthly excess morlity. Monthly dt re estimted
from weekly deths dt. Source: Eurostt
Deths per per 1,000 popultion, 2012 - 2022.Source: CSO
Excess deths from 2019 to 2023 using offi cil dt. Source: EuroMOMO
