March 2016 7 5
DEMOCRACY AT HOME
GeneralElection2016hasthrownupanutterlyunpre-
dictableresultwithFiannaFáilintheascendant.Atthe
timeofwritingtheconsequencesofthevoteincluding
whowillsurviveasleaders,whowillbeingovernment
andwhowillleadthegovernmentcouldnotbelesspre-
dictableand,withoutresortingtometaphysics,will
reectonlyopaquelythewillofthepeople.Yetwecarry
onasifthisdidnotreectinanywayontheintegrityof
ourdemocracy.
DEMOCRACY ABROAD
TheBrexitreferendumshouldhavebeenframedon
whethertheUKwillbeintheEU,inEFTA,orindepend-
ent.But,asalwaysintheseislands,thethirdoption,
themiddleone,hasbeenomitted.Theoutcome,there-
fore,isboundtobeinaccurate.Andgiventhedivisive
natureofthein-or-out, stay-or-leavequestion, itis
highlylikelythatthe‘leave’optionwillwin.Inathree-
optionpoll,the‘leave’optionwillprobablylose.
On20thDeclastyear,Spainwenttothepolls…and
twomonthslater,Spanishpoliticiansarestillarguing
aboutwhoshouldbeingovernment.Butthisisparfor
thecourse.Ashappensinsomanydemocracies,open
andtransparentelectionsarefollowedbyclosedand
opaquediscussions,asvariouspartieswheelanddeal
behindcloseddoors,tryingtoconcoctamajoritycoali-
tion.In2013,Germany’sfourpartiestook67daysto
sortsomethingout.In2010/11,Belgium’sdozentook
451 days! Will Ireland have the same sort of
uncertainty?
Democracyisforeverybody,notjustamajority.Con-
ict zones like Syria and Ukraine need inclusive
governance,governmentsofnationalunity.Inter alia,
thisshouldmeanthatelectionsarepreferentialand
proportional;thatpowerissharedinbothjointpresi-
denciesandall-partycoalitioncabinets;whilethethird
ingredientispreferentialvotingandcollectiverespon-
sibilityinparliament.Sadly,whilewepreachatleast
someoftheseidealsabroad,wepracticetheveryoppo
-
siteathome:majorityruleintheDáilandtheCommons,
anddivisivemajorityvotingbothinparliamentsand
nationalreferendums.
BeforetheScottishreferendumof2014,itwaswidely
assumedthat‘devo-max’,themiddleoptionformaxi-
mumdevolution,wouldgetabout60per cent. The
ballot,however,includedonlythetwootheroptions,
statusquoandindependence.Theresult,therefore,
wasahighlyinaccuratenonsense.
Therearetimes,aswiththeelectionvictoryofAung
SanSuuKyiinMyanmar,orourownrecentreferendum
onsamesexmarriage,whendemocracyiswonderful.
Onotheroccasions,asintheBalkans,itwasdownright
dangerous:the1990electionstherewerelittlemore
than sectarianheadcountsand “allthe warsinthe
formerYugoslaviastartedwithareferendum”.(Oslo-
bodjenje,Sarajevo’smainnewspaper,7.2.1999.)
ItmustalsoberememberedthatNapoleonbecame
theEmperorbyapopularvote,oneinwhichhe,liter-
ally,dictatedthequestion.Hitler,too,cametopower
‘democratically’.Inthe1924elections,theNational
Socialistswonjust14seatsbut,inthewakeofthegreat
depression,thisroseto107(17.6%).Thesubsequent
historyconsistedofweightedmajorityvotesinparlia-
ment(liketheEnablingActof1933),simplemajority
votesinreferendumsinwhich,again,thedictatordi
tatedthequestion,andwar.
Democracy and war
Pluralism is more efficient and moderate
than majoritarianism
by Peter Emerson
Current models
of democracy
are, as in the
Balkans, some-
times dangerous
DEMOCRACY: Two wolves and a sheep voting on what’s for dinner
7 6 March 2016
INTERNATIONAL
DEMOCRACY AND WAR
The focus of this article is Westminster’s
democracyand thedecisiontogotowarin
Syria.
Wouldtheoutcomeofthedebateonbomb-
inginSyriahavebeendifferentifthechosen
methodologyofdecision-makinginparliament
werenotmajorityvoting?Inotherwords,would
theHousehavemadeadifferentdecisionifthe
procedureshadallowedforamorepluralist
decision-makingmethodology?
Firstofall,alittlebackground.In2002,inthe
UNSecurityCouncildebateonIraq,Resolution
1441,bothFranceandGermanyobjectedtothe
phrase“seriousconsequences”inClause13.
Yetbothvotedinfavourofthatresolution.The
outcome,describedas“unanimous”,was(not
thebut)acauseofwar,oftheinvasionofIraq
on20.3.2003,andofthesorrystorysince,not
leastinSyria.
Butthatoutcome–15-nil–wasnotunani-
mous!FranceandGermanydidindeedobject
totheaboveclause,andperhapswouldhave
objectedtootherparagraphsifbuttheproce-
dureshadcateredforsuchcriticisms.Maybe
otherCouncilmembers,oneorotheroftheten
temporarynon-vetopowers,whichatthetime
includedIreland,mighthavehadpolicypropos-
alsworthyofconsideration.
Unfortunately,binary voting meansques-
tionsaredichotomous.So countriesvotein
favour, perhaps because the resolution is
betterthannothing,perhapsbecauseofthe
need for international solidarity, we don’t
know.Thereisthemainresolution;theremay
beamendmentstothisclauseorthat,oreven
perhapsawreckingamendment;butevery-
thingisyes-or-no;itisthismethodologywhich
isatfault.Majorityvotingwas,yes,acauseof
war.
A MORE INCLUSIVE
PROCEDURE
Amoreaccuratemethodologywouldallowthe
UKandUSAtoproposeonedraftResolution
1441;option A.IfFranceandGermanyobjected
toClause13orwhatever,theycouldproposean
alternativewording,evenifonlyforthisone
clause,whencetheirpreference wouldbea
slightly revised but nevertheless complete
package, option B.Syria,thena temporary
member of Council, might have preferred
anothercompletepackage,option C.Ireland
couldhavepreferredamoreobviouslyneutral
option D,andsoon.Naturallyenough,coun-
triesmightseektocometogetheringroupsto
favourthisorthatoptionbuttherstprinciple
would remain:everything shouldbeon the
table, (computer screen and dedicated
web-page).
Thesubsequentdebatewouldallowforques-
tions,clarications,compositesandevennew
proposals(althoughofcourse,atanyonetime,
any one country could sponsor only one
motion).Atvariousstages,participatingcoun-
triescould express their preferences, so to
indicatewheretheeventualconsensusmight
lie. Then, at theendof the debate,all con-
cernedwouldcasttheirpreferencesonanal
(short)listofaboutveoptions.Thewinning
outcome,probablythe1stpreferenceofsome
andthe2ndor3rdpreferenceofothers,would
betheoptionwiththehighestaverageprefer-
encescore;themethodologyistheModied
BordaCount,MBC.Therewouldthereforebeno
needforpoliticianstoclaim,ashappenedin
2002,totalunanimity;instead,withexactitude,
allwouldknowtheprecisemeasure:thewin-
ningoption’sconsensuscoefcient.
THE HOUSE AS IS
So,backtoWestminster.In2003,theHouse
voted412to219tosayit“regrets…ithasnot
provedpossibletosecureasecondresolution
intheUN”,butsuchasecondresolutionwas
notevendebated.Italsosaidit“supportsthe
decision[to]useallmeansnecessarytoensure
thedisarmamentofIraq’sweaponsofmass
destruction”.Buttherewerenosuchweapons.
RobinCookresigned.TonyBlairblunderedon.
Andtwodayslater,Iraqwasinvaded.
Such appalling mistakes were not to be
repeated.Itwasthereforeresolvedthatnotthe
PrimeMinisterbutParliamentshoulddecide.
Hencethemost recentCommonsdebateon
Syria. In 2015, The Guardianreportedthat
“[David]Cameronsaidhewantedtoact[onIsil]
afterbuildingaconsensus”bytakingamajor-
ityvote.Thisisanoxymoron.Suchabinary
vote–somany‘for’andsomany‘against’–
cannotmeasureconsensusforitmeasuresthe
veryopposite,thedegreeofdissent.Onthe
sameday,GeorgeOsbornesaid,“We’renot
going to go to the Commons [for a vote on
bombinginSyria]unlesswewouldbeclearthat
wewouldwinthatvoteandtherewouldbea
consensus”.(Ibid.)Anotheroxymoron,andhe
makestwofurthermistakes:parliamentisnot
thedecision-makingbodyitismeanttobe;
instead,inhisbook,theexecutivedecides(or
dictates),andtheparliamentarydecision-mak-
ing process, the debate plus vote, is
superuous.
Forreasonsunclear,thisbeliefinmajoritar-
iandecision-makingissharedbythemediaand
academia:"[Cameron]neededtowinthevote...
toachievehisgoalofsecuringaclearconsen-
sus”[The Guardian,2.12.2015].
Why do we still use the
divisive majority vote,
the ancient and most
inaccurate measure of
collective opinion ever
invented when majority
voting has been (not the
but) a cause of ‘the Troubles’
in Northern Ireland?
March 2016 7 7
THE HOUSE AS IT COULD BE
AshappensintheBundestag–andthisrule
wasintroducedasalessonfromthe1930s–a
voteofnocondenceinGermanymustbecon-
structive.Accordingly,thosewhodonotlike
whatisonthetablemustproposeanalterna-
tive.Thesameprinciplecouldapplytopolicy
debates.
Today,theproblemistheIslamicStateand
Syria.So,parliamentshouldhaveheldaproper
debate.Thegovernmentcouldhaveproposed
option A,acomprehensivepolicyoutliningdip-
lomaticinitiativesinViennaaswellasactionin
theairandonthegroundinSyria.IfLabourdis-
agreed, it could have moved an equally
comprehensivealternative,option B.TheSNP
mighthavehaddifferentideasaswell,soto
move another complete package, option C.
Likewise,theLib-Dems,UKIPandtheGreens
mightallhavewishedtooffertheirproposals,
perhapsintandemwithPlaidCymruorwhom-
soever.Onsuchacomplextopic,thedebate
mustbepluralist;sotooshouldbethecollec-
tionofoptionsonthetable;andsotooshould
bethe(short)listofoptionsontheballotpaper.
Whenallissaid,movetoapreferentialvote
and,ifthewinningoptionpassesapre-deter-
mined consensus coefcient threshold, the
word‘consensus’couldbeappliedandtheout-
comecouldbeenacted:allsaidanddone.
THE END OF SYRIA’S CIVIL WAR
To ensure the mistakes of the past are not
repeated,anydemocraticstructuresproposed
forSyriamustbeinclusive.Accordingly,the
electoralsystemshouldbepreferential,asitis
inNorthernIreland andPapuaNewGuinea;
indeed,inthelatter,thevotersmuststateat
leastthreepartypreferencesinorderfortheir
votestobevalid.Inotherwords,inPNG,the
votermustcrossthepartyifnotindeedthesec-
tariandivideatleasttwice;i.e.,he/shemustbe
peaceful.
Secondly,asinSwitzerland,thepresidency
shouldbejoint;theSwissusetheso-called
‘magicformula’toallowthetopvepartiesto
sharethepresidency,aseven-personFederal
Council.Or,asinLebanon,variouspostsmust
beshared;theTaifagreementdemandsthatthe
PresidentmustbeaMaronite,thePremiera
Sunni,andtheSpeakeraShia.Oragain,asin
NorthernIreland,postsaresharedinaprocess
knownas‘cherry-picking’.(Alloftheseformu-
las,however,perpetuatetheverypartyand/or
sectarian divisions which, in Lebanon and
NorthernIreland,therespectivepower-sharing
arrangementwasmeanttoovercome.)
Thirdly,apower-sharingpolityshouldensure
cross-community co-operation in decision-
making.BelgiumandnowNorthernIrelanduse
consociationalvoting,asdoesCyprusinitsref-
erendums. But this methodology is still
dichotomous.Amorepluralistpolity,asout-
linedabove,wouldbethewiserapproach,not
leastbecausethemoreaccurateandrobust
MBCisalsoethno-colour-blind.
PEACE TALKS IN VIENNA
“On14thNovember,foreignministersfromthe
west, Russia, the Gulf monarchies and Iran
calledfor‘credible,inclusiveandnon-sectarian
governance’inSyria,”(The Guardian,4Decem-
ber),andtalkstothisendhavenowstarted.
Similar statements have been issued for
Afghanistan,Bosnia,CAR,DRC,Iraq,Kenya,
Libya,NorthernIreland,SouthSudan,Syria,
Ukraine,Zimbabweetc..Woulditnotbewiser
torstputsuchapolityintopracticeinso-
called‘stable’democracies?
Furthermore,iftheUKdidhaveapreferential
andproportionalelectoralsystem,anall-party
governmentofnationalunity,andpreferential
votinginbothparliamentandinreferendums,
thenmaybetheHouseofCommonswouldnot
have voted for what is, after all, the most
extremeofalltheoptionssuggested:war.
Finally,at a time when many countriesin
Europearefacedwiththeprospectofruleunder
anextremistparty–e.g.,theNationalFrontin
France–itistimetore-denedemocracyona
non-majoritarianandmoreinclusivebasis.At
themoment,asinHitler’sGermany,adversarial
majorityvotingindecision-makingandsingle-
preferencevotinginelectionsarethebasisofa
political structure which isjusttoo damned
dangerous. It should also be recalled that
L’Institut Français adoptedtheBordamethodol-
ogy in 1784 but a future president of that
Institute,oneNapoleonBonaparte,revertedto
majorityvoting.
Sowhy,hereinIreland,thereinBritain,and
thereintheUN,dopeoplestillusethedivisive
majorityvote,theancientandmostinaccurate
measureofcollectiveopinioneverinvented?
Especiallywhenmajorityvotingandthatwhich
isbasedthereon,majorityrule,hasbeen(not
thebut)acauseof‘theTroubles’inNorthern
Ireland,aswellasmayhemintheBalkansand
Caucasus,thegenocideinRwandaandthecol-
lapseofSouthSudan.
Sowhy,hereinIreland,thereinBritain,and
intheUN,dopeoplestillusethedivisivemajor-
ity vote, the ancient and most inaccurate
measureofcollectiveopinioneverinvented?
Especiallywhenmajorityvotingandthatwhich
isbasedthereon,majorityrule,hasbeen(not
thebut)acauseof‘theTroubles’inNorthern
Ireland,aswellforexampleasmayheminthe
BalkansandCaucasus,thegenocideinRwanda
andthecollapseofSouthSudan.
CONCLUSION
InSyria,majorityruleispartoftheproblem.In
suchafracturedsociety,ifpowerrestsinaone-
person presidency, there will always be a
majoritywhichisillat ease.IfAfghanistan,
Bosnia,Fiji, Kenya, Libya, Northern Ireland,
Ukraine,YemenandZimbabwe–tonamebuta
fewconictzones–aretohaveanendtovio-
lenceandastableandinclusivegovernance,
theymustadoptamoreinclusivestructure.If
suchisourwishhereinIreland,suchshould
also be our practice. If need be, Sinn Féin
shouldbeingovernment,butonlytotheextent
whichisitsproportionaldue.Betterinthetent,
ofcourse,andnotleastbecausewithin,every-
thingisdome,orshouldbedone,inconsensus.
Ifcollectivedemocracyisdifcultforthemin
theseconditions,ifdogswagtails,theycanbut
resign.
'From Majority Rule to Inclusive Politics'
(Springer, 2016), was launched in Dublin on
23rd February.