3 4 March 2016
FF won’t see
coalition as an
ideological issue and
FG is glued to stability
Since the people voted for its ejection Fine
Gael will have to make concessions on policies
(including tax and Irish Water, ministries and
who’ll be Taoiseach)
POST-ELECTION
March 2016 3 5
T
hemostextraordinarycoalitionformedinIre-
landwastherstone,in1948.ItinvolvedFine
Gaelandathen-newpartyheadedbySean
McBride,ClannnaPoblachta.TheClannwas
alivelymixtureofliberals,left-wingersand
RepublicanswithadeepimmersionintheIRA.Thesur-
prisewiththeClannwasthatitsyouthfulenthusiasm
andvigorouscampaignsagainstpartitionverynearly
toppledDeValerafromhisthenhegemonyoverIrish
politics.
McBridehimselfwasaformerIRAChiefofStaffwho
subsequentlycutoutacareerforhimselfasaninterna-
tionaleminencebecomingaNobelPrizelaureateand
foundingmemberofAmnestyInternational-thecam-
paigning global Human Rights body. Because of
lingeringrepublicanbitternessagainstGeneralRichard
Mulcahy'sroleinthecivilwar,Mulcahy,theFineGael
leader,stoodasidetofacilitateacoalitionwiththeClann
anditstoothandclawrepublicanmilitants.JohnACos-
tellobecameTaoiseachinthecoalitioninstead.
Thepointofallofthisistoillustratethat,fromthe
veryoutset,coalitionformationinIrelandhasbeena
pragmaticbusinesswherebigpartiesandsmallones
dispensewithideologicalorphilosophicaldifferences
inordertoprovideanalternativegovernmentandrun
thecountry.Downtheyearsfew,ifany,FineGaelor
Labourleadersworriedtoomuchaboutthedifferences
ofleftandrightwhenitcameto
formingagovernmentdesigned
toextractFiannaFáilfrompro-
longedperiodsinpower.
In1989CharlesHaugheyled
FiannaFáilforthersttime
ever into a coalition
arrangementwiththePro-
gressiveDemocrats,stating
cheerily:"Sure,itwasonly
methatcouldhavedoneit”.
Hispartycolleaguesresistedit
furiouslybelievingnon-participation
incoalitionanabsolutecorevalueforthepartyupto
thatpoint.Thebitternessofdoingthiscoalitionwas
magniedbythepresenceofDesO'Malleyandhisnew
party - composed of individuals who had fought
Haughey,thensplitfromhimtocreatetheirownparty.
ForHaugheyitwasjustanotherdealbutfortheProgres-
siveDemocrats,whoclaimedtobepolicy-focused,it
wasabouttaxationandotherpreciouspolicyitems,
includingapublicTribunalintothegoingsonintheBeef
Industry.
Haugheyworkedhardtosavehisownskinandper-
suadehisministerialcolleaguesofthemeritsofgoing
intocoalition.Apparentlyatonestageinthediscussions
aroundthecabinettableheheldouthisarmssideways
demandinginrelationtotheopposition:"D0youwant
togivethemallofthis?".
ShortlyafterwardsthenewTaoiseachAlbertReyn-
oldsformedacoalitionwiththeLabourPartywhich
followedanelectionin1992whichfeaturedadvertise-
mentsgeneratedbyFiannaFáilscaremongeringabout
aleft-wingtakeoverofthecountrybyLabour.Thiswas
nosmalltacticandinvolvedgiantbillboardsandfull-
pagenewspaperadvertsinabidtofrightenvotersina
movethatwasredolentofthe‘redscare’tacticsofthe
1950sand1960s.
Duringtheactualcampaignmyfather,thelateBrian
LenihanSenior.Whenallabouthimwerethesebanner
advertisementscalledforan alignmentwithLabour
The groundwork for the 2007
FF/Green coalition had begun
in the immediate aftermath
of the 2002 election
OPINION
by Conor
Lenihan
REALPOLITIK
3 6 March 2016
rather than the PDs. His rationale was that
LabourweremorecompatiblewithFFthanwhat
he viewedasthe "Thatcherite "Progressive
Democrats. He was dismissed by the party
bossesduringthecampaignonlytondhimself
instrumental,behindthescenes,aftertheelec-
tioninputtingthecoalitiondealwithLabour
together. Albert Reynolds, a businessman,
provedtobeverypragmaticwhenfacedwiththe
post-electionnumbersandgettingbackinto
power.
Myfatherhadkeyrelationshipsandfriend-
shipswithintheLabourPartyandwithinthe
labourmovementgenerally.Theserelationships
andabilitytocommunicatebecamevitaltothe
formationofthisgovernment.Whenpeopleset
outtocrosspartydividesthereisaneedfor
credibleanddependableintermediarieswho
can give assurances on policy and how the
shareoutofministrieswillplayoutwhenthe
negotiationsgetreal.Thiswasmyownexperi-
encewhenIsetout,attherequestofBertie
Ahern,toputinmotiontheprocessofhavinga
coalitionwiththeGreenPartyin2007.
In fact the groundwork had begun in the
immediate aftermath of the 2002 election.
Ahernwasalreadyentertainingdoubtsabout
the future sustainability of the PD coalition
becauseofproblemswithbothpolicyandnum-
bers.Iknewanumberofthekeyguresinthe
GreenParty,includingTrevorSargentandhad
beeninuniversitywithbothEamonRyanand
JohnGormley.Partofthereasonforhavinga
coalitionwiththeGreenswasaconcernwithin
thepartyabouttheright-of-centrenatureofthe
PDcoalition,aswellasafearthatthepartywas
alreadybecomingtoovisiblyidentiedwiththe
buildingindustryandbigcapital.Itwasalso
madeeasierbytheoverarchingatmosphereof
mainstreamingenvironmentalorgreenissues.
Whenthepost-electionnumbersshoweda
GreencoalitionwasnecessaryBertiepressed
thebuttonsandappointedaskilledandexperi-
enced team of negotiators so that his own
ministerswerelockedintotheitemsagreedwith
theGreens.Thegovernmentitselfworkedwell
togetherthoughithastobesaiditwasmuch
moredifcultfortheGreenstogetthecoalition
dealpasttheiractiviststhanitwasforBertieto
getitpasthisparliamentaryparty.RuralTDs
werethemostresistantregardingGreenpoli-
cies onfarmingincentives astantamount to
treason. In the event they overcame their
difculties.
AswiththepreviousLabourCoalition,outside
ofthemainnegotiations,aseriesofreliableand
discreetintermediarieswereonhandtosmooth
outanyissuesthataroseinthetalks.Ahernhim-
selfwasaveryaccomplishednegotiator.
GeneralElection2016hasbeendominatedby
speculationofagrandcoalitionbetweenthe
onceverydominantbigpartiesofFiannaFáil
andFineGael.Thefactthatbothpartiescom-
binednowcountforslightlylessthan50%ofthe
popularvotehashastenedafrenzyofspecula-
tionaboutsuchacoalitioncomingabout.There
isstronginstitutionalisedresistancetothecon-
ceptinbothparties.Thesehavenothingtodo
with ideology nor indeed the civil war of
1922/23.Infacttheylieinthesocialbasisfrom
whicheachpartdrawsitssupport.Resistance
isalsotodowiththestatusandrivalryoftwo
setsofactivists.Theelectorateandthecom-
mentariatremainlargelyblindtothisreality.
Theideaofsuchacoalitionwasmuchlaun-
deredbeforethe2016election.Thehigh-prole
attendanceofmylatebrotherattheMichaelCol-
lins commemoration in Cork gave a certain
validitytothenotionitself.Thereisahistorical
sensethatitistimetoburythehatchet.Fora
coalitionofthiskindtocomeaboutitwillrequire
hugesacrices,notfromFiannaFáil,butfrom
FineGael.
Theconcessionswillhavetocomeintheareas
ofministerialrepresentation,thepolicycontent
ofthegovernmentitselfandnallyinthehugely
symbolicissueofwhoinfactistobecomeTaoi-
seach.FiannaFáilpeoplewouldarguethat,in
thecontextofFineGaellosingtheelection,it
hasarighttoclaimsignicantconcessionsand
thepartymayevenpushthistothepointof
insistingthatMicheálMartinbenominatedas
Taoiseachforsuchagrandcoalition.Thismove
is based on the notion that the voters have
denitivelyvotedfortheremovalofFineGael
fromofceandthatanythinglessthanvisible
changeinthepolicyandpersonalitymakeupof
thegovernmentwillleavesuchagrandcoalition
doomedfromtheoutset.IfitisnottobeaFianna
FáilTaoiseachthensomeconsiderationmaybe
giventotheideaofarotationoftheroleofTaoi-
seachbetweenthetwoparties.
AttheveryleastFineGaelwillbeforcedtoeat
humble pie and also become the vehicle to
implementthecoreelementsoftheFiannaFáil
manifestowhileingovernment.Themostvisible
ofthesecommitmentswillbetheabolitionof
IrishWaterandthetaxpoliciesofconcentrating
futurereductiononthemiddletolowerpaid.
Timewilltellifeitherpartyispreparedtomake
theseleapsoffaith.
FineGaelputsomuchstressonstabilityand
thecontinuationofeconomicrecoveryinthe
electioncampaignthatitisnowvirtuallyimpos-
sibleforthemtoresistsuchdemandsmadeby
FiannaFáil.Bothpartiesfeartheprospectof
leavingSinnFéinasthemainleaderoftheoppo-
sition.Theymay,however,decidethatitisarisk
worthtakingthepredictedscalrevenuesthat
areabouttobecomeavailablegiventherecov-
erythathasalreadytakenplace.Thefactthat
SinnFéinwillhavetoendurefragmented,but
highlyactive,left-wingcompetitorsintheDáil
mayalsomakeiteasierforthetwobigparties
todoadeal.
TheLabourParty,SinnFéin,theSocialDemo-
crats,theGreensandtheanti-austerityalliance
allsharethenew,leftwing,spaceintheDáil.
None of these parties have a great deal in
common. Even on the controversial issue of
waterchargestherehavebeenbitterdivisions.
Itwillbedifcult,evenforadeterminedparty
likeSinnFéin,tobringaboutleft-wingunity.
TheformerPDLeaderMaryHarneyhadwide-
ranging experience of negotiating coalition
agreementsoveralongcareeringovernment.
Shefamouslystatedonce"theworstdayingov-
ernment is better than the best day in
opposition".Fewpoliticiansrelishorwritevery
muchintheirmemoirsofthelongspellsthey
spentinopposition.
Part of the reason for having a coalition with the
Greens was a concern about the right-of-centre
nature of the PD coalition, as well as a fear that
the party was becoming too identified with the
building industry
Institutionalised
resistance to coalition
is grounded not in the
civil war but in the social
basis from which each
part draws its support,
and activist rivalry
POST-ELECTION

Loading

© 2015 Village Magazine

Back to Top