Fianna Gael - Village Magazine

62 February 2016

he former Taoiseach Albert Reynolds once

said that an Irish General Election was a

series of 41 constituency by-elections. The

vagaries of our proportional representation

system mean that a modern Irish election can

throw up all kinds of results. The landscape of Irish poli-

tics has been thrown into even greater uncertainty by

the extraordinary destruction of Fianna Fáil which lost

three-quarters of its seats in 2011 (dropping from 78 to

20 TDs).

The narrative for this forthcoming general election is

already well-known. Taoiseach Enda Kenny is now seek-

ing the kind of mandate Fianna Fáil used to get in former

years. The rhetoric of stability once deployed by Fianna

Fáil, is now being marshalled by Fine Gael. Kenny has

staked his ground with the mantra, “Keeping the Recov-

ery Going”, while making sure to register humility about

the electorate who have brought about the economic

improvement. The Taoiseach is understandably playing

on the anxiety of voters about the potential for eco-

nomic reverse if its voting facilitates a weak coalition

government comprising disparate parties of left and

right with little or nothing in common.

In fact 1977 was the last time an Irish party won an

outright majority and Governments which lack an

actual parliamentary majority have proved to be among

the most successful. Lemass led without

a majority in the 1960s and Haughey did

so again in the 1980s. A three-party coa-

lition led by John Bruton, with little

common ideology, ran quite smoothly

from 1994.

It appears that both Fianna Fáil and

Fine Gael actually perform best when

under the watchful eye of smaller

parties.

Clearly there is going to be a coalition.

However, the real conundrum for the

electorate is that the great probability is

that Enda Kenny will be returned as Taoi-

seach though the likelihood of Fine Gael

being back with Labour on their own is

very much an outside chance. It is more likely that

Renua and other independents will make up his

numbers.

Traditionally there has been a leader of the opposi-

tion who could put together a coalition alternative to

the parties in power. A fully effective leader of the oppo-

sition has to credibly state to the electorate his (or her)

chance of becoming Taoiseach. The numbers now, and

since 2011, do not allow Micheál Martin to make this

claim. The only way he could possible claim to having

a chance of being Taoiseach after the election is if he

consents to forming a government containing his own

party, Sinn Féin and assorted independents or smaller

parties of both left and right.

A hung Dáil could throw up all sorts of permutations

and there is an outside chance that there would be

enough, disparate parties other than Fine Gael to form

an administration. However, it seems unlikely that

Micheál Martin would become Taoiseach and exclude

both Fine Gael and Sinn Féin from government, thus

stranding both in opposition.

Indeed Martin's decision to rule out forming a gov-

ernment with or containing Sinn Féin has allowed Gerry

Adams to cleverly state that voting for Fianna Fáil is an

irrelevance. Adams has made the argument that since

Fianna Fáil would go into power with neither Sinn Féin

nor Fine Gael then it is pointless for voters to give it

support.

Sinn Féin is probably the only party in the political

system, along with the radical parties of the left, that

could, if it chose, openly claim that it is ﬁghting the elec-

tion in order not to go into power. However, it does not

appear willing to embrace this particular high-risk

Though for me FG is

more conservative, all

I could reply was that

Fianna Fáil were a party

of the entrepreneurial

bourgeoisie and Fine

Gael of the commercial

bourgeoisie

Fianna Gael

The elusive difference between

our two biggest parties

by Conor Lenihan

COLUMNS