7 4 December - January 2017
INTERNATIONAL
J
EAN-VINCENT PLACÉ is a French junior
minister and a former Green senator.
In June, he declared in the weekly
newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche
that he was absolutely convinced that
François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, the two
rivals way back in the second round of the 2012
presidential election, would face off again in
2017. Six months later, we saw Sarkozy fail to
win the new-fangled primary election for Les
Républicains (LRs), the right-wing party, and
Hollande give up on a second term.
For this Frenchman, France is dangerously
uncertain, challenged and threatened. Under a
surface of pomp and democratic decency lies a
vicious malaise. The EU, at least, may see that
this is a once cuddly dog that may bite.
For the right, people were expecting Alain
Juppé, a former Prime Minister (1995-
1997), once jailed, to win the
primary election and be the lib-
eral candidate. The very
cynical media review Acrimed
even did a collection of press
covers from the past two
years: "Juppémania", "why
not him?", "the best of us",
etc. Needless to say, then, that
François Fillon’s victory was a
big surprise for everyone, includ-
ing himself. He blasted his opponent,
gathering more than 66% of voters. Fillon is pop-
ular, despite his Droopy-face, his large grey
eyebrows and his many mocking nicknames,
such as Mr Pee due to his frequent unexplained
absences from Parliament during important
votes.
Supported by Christian fundamentalists,
including traditional pro-life and pro-family
movements like La Manif pour Tous (who dem-
onstrated against same-sex marriage in 2013),
Fillon definitely has conservative social and lib
-
eral economic ideas, teed up for uncertain
France in 2017.
His Policy is to strip back the State: a €100bn
savings programme on public spending, and the
elimination of 500,000 public-servant jobs.
Corporate taxes would fall, and the richest
would certainly be pleased that Fillon wants to
cut the main tax on personal wealth (ISF). He
revels in attacking the main social advances
engineered by the left: the 35-hour week, and
the retirement age of 65 years – important lega-
cies of socialists, François Miterrand and
Martine Aubry.
Fillon has ideas about social issues too: he
wants immigration quotas (as did Juppé), to cut
social welfare (including healthcare) for refu-
gees, and to fight terrorism by stripping jihadists
of their citizenship, which is actually impossible
for those born in France. Despite his strong sup-
port for pro-life groups (and his personal
opposition to abortion), he does not propose to
abolish the law on same-sex marriage or to do
anything to stop free abortion. However, he
will put more obstacles in the way of
homosexual couples adopting a
child. While they would be able
to adopt they could not pass
on their citizenship or rights
of inheritance.
By choosing Fillon, the
Republican electorate clearly
signalled its yearning for a
more liberal and conservative
axis, closer to the far-right
Marine Le Pen and the Front
National (FN) than centre-right demo-
crats. Lefties, have a look at Fillon’s advisors
and you might shiver: people come from Occi-
dent, a former Euro-supremacist organisation,
or the GUD, a far-right racist and antisemitic stu-
dent syndicate. Fillon made references during
his campaign that he was born in the country-
side from a "peasant’s family" (although he’s a
deputy of… Paris), and a Catholic. The night of
his victory, his spokeswoman was seen on TV…
wearing a cross.
Jesus Christ, what have they done with
laicism?
For Marine Le Pen, whom everybody is
resigned to see in the second round of the elec-
tion, it’s difficult to know if Fillon’s run is a good
or a bad thing. Overtaking by the right wing is
forbidden in France… but that’s exactly what the
"Right with no complex" (according to former
corrupt leader Jean-François Copé) is trying to
do. Stealing the electorate of people who share
Le Pen’s idea but are bothered by the smell of it.
On the contrary, the Front national of Marine Le
Pen has engaged in a process of "de-devilisa-
tion" of her party, based on the fact that they are
against the establishment (cheers Donald
Trump!). That’s probably why the party is not that
worried that Fillon, a former Prime minister
(under Sarkozy, 2007-2012) born and raised in
it, might sink it.
On the left wing, things do not move as fast.
The PS, like the Labour Party in Britain, sees
itself as much a force for ethical progressivism
as a political party hungry for power. Early
December saw two big events: ‘Flamby’ (‘Pud-
ding’) Hollande, the only politician in the world
who could make jumping on a scooter to see your
nubile mistress, unsexy, became the first Presi-
dent in sixty years to declare he would not seek
re-election, and his Prime minister Manuel Valls
announced his participation in the primary élec
-
tion for the Left, in January. Valls is nicknamed
the 'lefty Sarko' and unloved by the socialist
electorate. When Hollande was elected, he
became Minister of the Interior (just like Sarkozy
had been) and directed a repressive policy on the
Roma people, migrants and demonstrators.
After he became Prime Minister in 2014, he
had to suffer several motions of no confidence
from Parliament, and had to use the most anti-
democratic articles of the French constitution to
pass authoritarian and deregulatory laws. From
the still-active state of emergency to the frac-
tious clampdown on the Islamic burkini, and the
El Khomri law on precarious work and employ
-
ment, which generated street protests last
March, ‘popularity’ is not Manuel Valls’ primary
driver, at least for the moment.
Valls will be the candidate of power, facing
other socialist candidates who represent the
deceived and the angry. And if he actually wins,
it is not clear the extent to which he will be sup
-
ported by all those who spat on him for months.
No bookmaker can really imagine the fractured
France cultivates
a vicious politics
The 2017 presidential election is a boring
soap opera where the only excitement is
the danger of the result
by Paul Verdeau
The EU, at least,
may see that this is
a once cuddly dog
that may bite