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Ireland's political and cultural magazine
September/October 2015 25
JOHN GORMLEY
I
T didn’t take the political establishment long to adapt
to the outpourings of public sympathy for the refu-
gees. The initial limit of was quickly upped to
, when Fine Gael spokespersons were asked about
the numbers of refugees that Ireland would accept. Not
to be outdone, Labour leader, Joan Burton, mentioned a
figure of ,.
Across the water, David Cameron also executed a swift
U-turn when he saw that the public mood had switched
from hostility to compassion for the distressed migrants.
Cameron knows that this is the most sensitive of political
issues and one which could figure large in the forthcom-
ing EU referendum. He is keeping a watchful eye on Nigel
Farage who set out his stall in typically uncompromising
style on Sky News. UKIP is opposed to further immigra-
tion because, while it might contribute to increased
economic growth, it will register negatively on ‘quality of
life’, an argument designed to appeal to all those conser-
vationist Tories with their Range Rovers and Barbour
waxed jackets. They certainly don’t want an increase in
population to million people – the figure casually
thrown out by Farage – in an already densely populated
country.
And this is where a curious and uncomfortable align-
ment occurs between the ideas of these reactionary
forces and socalled deep green thinkers. Consider for a
moment the Malthusian ravings of Dr William Stanton
from ten years ago: individual citizens, and aliens must
expect to be seriously inconvenienced by the single-
minded drive to reduce population ahead of resource
shortage. The consolation is that the alternative: letting
nature take its course, would be so much worse.
The scenario is: immigration is banned. Unauthorised
arrivals are treated as criminals. Every woman is enti-
tled to raise one healthy child. No religious or cultural
exceptions can be made, but entitlements can be traded.
Abortion or infanticide is compulsory if the foetus or
baby proves to be handicapped. When, through old age,
accident or disease, an individual becomes more of a
burden than a benefit to society, his or her life is
humanely ended. Voluntary euthanasia is legal and made
easy. Imprisonment is rare, replaced by corporal punish-
ment for lesser offences and painless capital punishment
for greater.
We shouldn’t distract ourselves for too long with the
dystopian vision of Dr Stanton, but there are saner voices
who have warned about the influence of resource deple-
tion and climate change on global migration patterns.
According to UN estimates, if our current population
growth continues with normal ‘demographic drivers’
there could be between and million interna-
tional migrants in the world by . However, climate
change increases the potential for additional mass
migration. The Stern Report () put this figure at an
additional million, whereas a Christian Aid report of
the same year came up with the more alarming figure of
an additional one billion migrants as a result of the cli-
mate crisis.
The current Syrian refugee crisis is ostensibly the
result of a complex civil war, but a recent report by the
National Academy of Sciences concludes that the severe
drought between and contributed to the
conflict. It resulted in the migration of traditional farm-
ing families – about . million people – to urban areas
where they found it difficult to find work, leading in turn
to civil unrest. Scientists have also suggested that cli-
mate change may have played a role in the drought in
north Africa that led to increases in food prices, and
sparking the discontent of the Arab Spring.
Similarly, another UN Report concluded that climate
change had played a role in the Darfur conflict.
The accumulating evidence points in one direction: the
current migration crisis is not a temporary phenomenon,
but the ‘new normal’, with the potential to become a
defining and deeply polarising issue.
Angela Merkel knows that the public mood can change
very quickly. So far, the Germans are happy to accept
tens of thousands of well-educated Syrians who, no
doubt, will contribute meaningfully to the German
demography and economy; but would they be as welcom-
ing of poor black Africans with few qualifications?
Pegida and the AfD in Germany and the emergence of
far right nationalist parties in Sweden, Denmark and the
Netherlands betoken a racist undercurrent in these lib-
eral countries.
No such parties have succeeded in Ireland. That’s not
to say that the Irish are morally superior or that the same
disdain for migrants does not exist here. Most TDs will
tell you that many Irish voters express concern about the
numbers of migrants.
According to one survey, up to % of Sinn Féin sup-
porters believed there were ‘too many’ migrants. Sinn
Féin, to their credit, have never attempted to make politi-
cal capital from this disquiet. But now that one in eight
people in this state are non-national, well above the
Western average and considerably higher than in Britain,
migration will rise to the top of the Irish political agenda.
Migration, the concomitant of climate change, is set to
challenge our moral certainties in the most unimagina-
ble way. •
War and climate
change will make
refugees ‘the new
normal’
Migration gyration
