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PB April-May 2025
April-May 2025 73
The decline of the Liberal
International Order (LIO) in
dates and key events
By Suzie Mélange
INTERNATIONAL
74 April-May 2025
April-May 2025 75
T
he Liberal International Order (LIO)
originated in an understandable
backlash against the rise of
Nazism, the death of around 80
million people in the second world
war and the ascendancy of the nothing-if-
not-liberal USA and other English-speaking
countries.
The Liberal International Order has been
assailed by:
• Authoritarian powers (Russia, China)
challenging its authority.
• Populist movements undermining
multilateralism.
•
Economic instability weakening trust in
free markets.
•
Global fragmentation deterring
co-operation.
Here’s how it went:
1945–1991: Apex of the
Liberal International Order
1945: Founding of the United Nations (UN):
51 c
ountries sign the UN Charter; in
2025, membership is 193
1947: Beginning of the Cold War
(US-Soviet ideological divide);
By 1
990, the US and USSR hold 95%
of the world’s nuclear warheads
1948: Universal Declaration of Human
Rights adopted;
48 o
f 58 UN members vote in favour;
8 abstain including Soviet bloc
1949 Formation of NATO;
Starts w
ith 12 members, expands to
32 by 2024
1957: Treaty of Rome (precursor to the EU);
6 founding nations; by 2025, the EU
h
as 27 members
1971: End of the Bretton Woods system
(shift from gold standard);
US d
ollar devalues 10% against gold
by 1973
1989: Fall of the Berlin Wall;
5,000+ p
eople escape East Germany
before the wall collapses;
1991: Dissolution of the Soviet Union (seen
as a triumph for the LIO);
15 i
ndependent states emerge from
the USSR
1992–2008: Unipolar moment,
early signs of fracture
1994: Establishment of the World Trade
Organisation (WTO);
WTO ha
s 123 founding members;
reaches 164 by 2024
1997: Asian Financial Crisis (erodes trust in
Western-led financial institutions);
Thailand’s c
urrency loses 50% of its
value in one year
Trump has shafted the
Liberal International Order
(twice)
1999: Battle of Seattle (anti-globalisation
protests against WTO);
50,000+ p
rotesters shut down the
WTO meeting
2001: 9/11 attacks — US-led War on Terror;
Nearly 3
,000 killed; US spends $8
trillion on War on Terror by 2021
2003: Iraq War (undermines UN authority
and US/UK legitimacy);
US-led c
oalition finds no WMDs; war
had cost $2.4 trillion by 2023
2007–2008: Global Financial Crisis
(severe loss of faith in free-market
capitalism);
Global G
DP dropped by 1.7% in 2009,
4.3% in EU
2009–2016: Rise of illiberal
challenges
2009: BRICS Summit (China, Russia, India,
Brazil, South Africa challenge Western
dominance);
BRICS e
conomies representing 25% of
global GDP, expanded membership
50% by 2025
2010–2012: Arab Spring
(initial democratisation, later
authoritarian backlashes);
Over 60% of Arab Spring uprisings led
to conflict or dictatorship
2014: Russia annexes Crimea (first land grab
in Europe since WWII)
96% o
f Crimean referendum voted in
favour of joining Russia (disputed);
2015: Migrant Crisis in Europe (fuelled
nationalism)
1.3 m
illion migrants entered the EU in
2015 alone
2016: Brexit Referendum (UK voted to leave
the EU);
51.9% vot
ed to leave; UK GDP reduced
by 2-5% due to Brexit (by 2025)
Trump elected (beacon of populist-
nationalist rejection of globalism);
Trump won w
ith 46.1% of the popular
vote
2017–Present: Decline
accelerated
2017: US withdrew from Paris Climate
Accord;
US e
mitted 13% of global CO₂
emissions (2023 data), having
peaked at 50% at the end of World
War II
2018: US-China trade war (challenges to
free trade);
$550 b
illion in mostly 25% taris
imposed between the US and China
by 2020; from 2021, Biden retained
Trump taris
2020: COVID-19 pandemic
(global institutions struggled,
na
tionalism rose);
Global G
DP contracted by 3.4% in
2020
2021: US withdrawal from Afghanistan
(signalled retreat from global
commitments);
20-year w
ar cost the US $2.3trillion;
Taliban retook power in days
2022: Russia invaded Ukraine (NATO and
the LIO face a direct challenge);
6.8 million Ukrainian refugees had
fl
ed by 2023
2023: Israel-Gaza War (divisions within
Western alliances over whether to
deny Israeli war crimes and
genocide);
Gaza H
ealth Ministry reports over
49,000 deaths and 113,000 injuries
by mid-March 2025. The Lancet
suggests actual death toll may be
40% higher
2024/5:
BRICS+ which promotes co-operation
in trade, finance, and geopolitics,
often as a counterbalance to
Western-led institutions like the IMF,
World Bank, and G7 expanded to 11
countries.
It now covers 4 billion people and 50% of the
global population: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE
and now Nigeria in addition to Brazil, Russia,
India, China and South Africa,
2025: for foreseeable future and beyond
— Trump, Trump, Trump, more
Trump, Vance, more Trumps...
Trumps.
74 April-May 2025
April-May 2025 75
LIO: dead
In May 2024, The Economist observed: “The
order that has governed the global economy
since the second world war has been eroded.
Today it is close to collapse”.
In 2025 Donald Trump killed the LIO.
In January 2025, The Times, reflecting on the
shifting global landscape, noted, “The world
stage that [outgoing Canadian Prime Minister
Justin]Trudeau leaves behind is transformed;
the values he promised Obama that he would
defend have crumbled.”
In February 2025, The Guardian reported
that the Munich Security Conference organisers
stated, “The signals from Washington
increasingly indicate that the US no longer
wants to be the guardian of the liberal
international order”. It noted US Vice-President
JD Vance’s speech “signalled that the pre-
existing dispute between Europe and the US
was no longer to do with the sharing of the
military burdens... but something more
fundamental about society”.
Trump influence has been key
First Trump administration
Trump Accelerated the death of the LIO in his
2017-2021 administration:
Weakened Alliance: NATO, UN, WTO severely
damaged.
Destabilised Trade: More taris, economic
nationalism, rising protectionism.
Emboldened Autocrats: Putin, Xi, Orban,
Erdogan praised for prowess.
Eroded Democracy: US credibility as the
leader of the Liberal International Order
collapsed due to crude bullying and
inarticulate transactionalism.
1. Erosion of multilateral agreements and
institutions
Withdrawal from key agreements
•
Paris Climate Agreement: Trump pulled the
US out in 2017, reducing global climate
eorts.
•
World Health Organisation (WHO): US
defunded and withdrew (2020), weakening
pandemic response.
Undermining International Legal Bodies
•
Sanctions on the International Criminal
Court (ICC): Challenged its authority,
threatening global accountability.
• Accused UN of corruption
• Disdained the EU
Impact: Reduced US credibility in global
governance, weakening climate action and
human rights enforcement.
2. Straining traditional alliances
Undermining NATO
•
Questioned US commitment: Suggested
that NATO members not meeting spending
targets wouldn’t be defended.
•
Weakened collective security:
Emboldened Russia and cast doubt on
NATO’s deterrent power.
Engineering tensions with Europe
• Unilateral foreign policy moves: Excluded
European allies from key diplomatic
decisions (e.g., talks with Russia over
Ukraine).
• Criticised EU policies: Accused European
democracies of being “weak” and
“misguided”.
Impact: NATO and EU divisions grew,
allowing Russia and China to expand
influence.
Over 60% of
Arab Spring
uprisings led
to conflict or
dictatorship
3. Promotion of economic nationalism
Disrupting global trade
•
Launched trade wars — Imposed $550
billion+ in taris on allies and adversaries
alike (2018–2020).
• Blocked free trade agreements — Killed the
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), giving China
more influence in Asia.
• “America First” Policy
•
Renegotiated NAFTA — Replaced it with
USMCA, which weakened regional
cooperation.
•
Promoted protectionism — Encouraged
countries to adopt nationalist economic
policies.
Impact: Supply chains disrupted, trust in the
global economic system weakened, and China
benefited from US trade retreat.
4. Support for authoritarian régimes
Fetish for strongmen
• Praised Vladimir Putin (Russia): called him a
“genius” for invading Ukraine.
•
Legitimised Kim Jong-un (North Korea):
Historic meetings but no denuclearisation
progress.
• Backed Erdogan (Turkey). Orban (Hungary)
and Bolsonaro (Brazil): Supported
nationalist, anti-democratic leaders.
• Concomitant criticism of democratic allies
•
Attacked NATO allies while being soft on
Russia and China.
•
Questioned the legitimacy of European
democracies, calling them “failing” or “weak”.
Impact: Global trust in US leadership eroded,
autocrats gained legitimacy, and democracy
was undermined.
5. Encouraging isolationism and geopolitical
chaos
Pulling back from global engagement
• Abrupt military withdrawals:
•
Syria (2019) — Abandoned Kurdish allies,
allowing ISIS resurgence.
• Afghanistan (2020 deal with Taliban) — Set
the stage for the chaotic 2021 withdrawal.
• Disrupted global COVID-19 response:
• Blamed China and WHO instead of leading a
co-ordinated pandemic strategy.
Impact: US allies lost trust, global conflicts
escalated, and leadership vacuums formed in
diplomacy.
Trump re-election, 2024
Since his re-election in November 2024,
President Donald Trump has shafted the
Liberal International Order, advancing a
narcissistic “America First” policy, emphasising
national interests and sovereignty over
multilateral co-operation.
These actions include:
1. Moves against the rule of law and executive
overreach in the US
76 April-May 2025
April-May 2025 PB
Ireland
Ireland plays a unique and influential role in the Liberal International Order (LIO) despite its
small size (population 5,380,300, 2024) and neutral stance:
Strong Support for Multilateralism
• United Nations (UN): • Member since 1955; strong advocate for peacekeeping, human
rights, and development aid. • Served on the UN Security Council (2021–2022),
emphasising conflict resolution and climate action. • Has contributed troops to 30 UN
peacekeeping missions since 1958, including in Congo, Lebanon, Syria, and Mali. • Ranks
first in UN peacekeeping troop contributions per capita in the EU.
• European Union (EU): • Member since 1973; supports economic integration, free trade,
and EU expansion. • Benefited significantly from EU funding, growing from one of Europe’s
poorest to richest nations; and liberalising. • Strong backer of the EU’s response to Brexit
and Ukraine support measures; received 110,000 Ukrainians under temporary protection
orders fleeing Russian war.
Military Neutrality, but Active in Peacekeeping
•
Ocially neutral, but aligned with Western institutions. • Not a NATO member, but
co-operates via Partnership for Peace (PfP).
Economic Globalisation and Free Trade
•
One of the most globalised economies (ranked #2 globally in KOF Globalisation Index
2023). • Attracts foreign investment, especially from US multinationals (Google, Apple,
Facebook, Pfizer). • Strong advocate for free trade within the EU and globally, benefiting
from an open economy. Whereas in 1990 only 1% of the population was born outside
Ireland, the UK or the US, by 2025 22.5% of the population was born outside Ireland.
Capitalist avatar
• Ireland’s share of the EU27 population was higher than Ireland’s GDP share in 1975 (0.8%
versus 0.6%). Ireland’s GDP share first exceeded Ireland’s population share in 1996. By
2022, Ireland’s population share had grown to 1.1%. Ireland’s GDP share grew at a far
greater pace, rising to 3.2% of the EU27 total in 2022 or almost three times Ireland’s
population share.
Human Rights and Soft Power
•
Active in climate diplomacy, gender equality, and humanitarian aid. • First country to
legalise same-sex marriage by popular vote (2015). • Supports Palestinian statehood,
dierentiating itself from many Western allies. • High international soft power due to its
diaspora diplomacy (global Irish population of perhaps 80 million) and history of being
colonised.
Navigating Great Power Rivalries
• Balances relations with the US, EU, UK, and to some extent China. • Strong US ties again
shown in St Patrick’s day Oval Oce beano: Over 900 US companies operate in Ireland,
employing 190,000+ people; recently vaunted employment of 273,000 in US by Irish firms.
• Critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but avoids direct military commitments.
• Increasing scrutiny of Chinese investments, particularly in technology and infrastructure;
nuanced approach on Gaza war.
2.
Trump has threatened opponents with
prosecution, denied that the judiciary plays
a role in controlling the executive, unlawfully
deported and detained immigrants and
allowed a billionaire to dismantle many
government agencies. Many of his cabinet
and other appointments are under-qualified,
fractious and lawless. He has assailed the
media and academia. The US is no longer a
full democracy and risks descent into
oligarchy. As of mid-March it seems the
judiciary is finally engaging with the anarchy.
3.
Engagement with European Far-Right
movements: The Trump administration has
actively cultivated and bigged-up Europe’s
far-right parties. US Vice President JD Vance
delivered a controversial speech at the
Munich Security Conference in mid-
February, criticising Germany’s government
just before the recent election, and met Alice
Weidel, the leader of the anti-immigrant AfD
party. This move breaks a long-standing
taboo in German politics against associating
with extremist parties. While such
endorsements may not aect Germany’s
election results, they signal a broader
strategy by Trump and his allies to promote
populist, anti-globalist movements across
Europe. Musk’s championing of British yob,
Tommy Robinson, and Trump’s hospitality to
convicted sexual abuser, Conor McGregor,
are indicative.
4.
Unilateral trade policies: In breach of laws
which require engagement with Congress,
President Trump has signed measures to
increase US import taris for Canada and
Mexico (though he partially deferred them),
and China; and threatened them for the EU,
Japan and South Korea — aiming to rectify
trade imbalances he describes as unfair,
whatever that means. Since much of this is
Trumpian Blu it is unclear from day to day
how much of it is intended to stick. Heavy
taris prejudice economic growth, under
Ricardian economic theories, and also
inflation, if other nations retaliate. His
administration is also challenging foreign
subsidies, health standards, and value-
added taxes on exports, which it considers
trade barriers. While these policies could
pressure other countries into lowering their
tariffs, they also introduce significant
uncertainties for trade planning
5.
Redefining international alliances: The
administration’s approach to foreign
policy emphasises transactionalism, for
example obtaining critical minerals —
resembling China’s long-standing
strategy. Trump is pursuing a “minerals-
and even nuclear-plants-for-aid” deal with
a Ukraine under duress, and suggested
retaking the Panama Canal, acquiring or
invading Greenland and making Canada
the 51st state. He disdains Nato and the
EU and has strong-armed Europe into
increased military expenditure, with
remarkable success.
6. Abuse and breaches of international law:
Like his predecessor, Joe Biden, he has
supported Israel’s apparent genocide and
war crimes in Gaza, often with glee. He has
outrageously and smirkily — and criminally
— suggested ethnic cleansing in Gaza
which he seems to see as a real-estate
play. He has bullied and insulted Ukraine’s
leader Volodomyr Zelenskyy in front of the
global media, partly for not pandering to
Vladimir Putin’s peace proposals for
Ukraine which enshrine rewards for
aggression and war criminality.
7. Restructuring foreign aid: On January 20,
2025, Trump signed Executive Order
14169, titled “Reevaluating and Realigning
United States Foreign Aid” which initiated
a 90-day pause on all US foreign
development assistance programs,
pending a comprehensive review. It has
generated catastrophic eects for many of
the world’s most needy and vulnerable. A
federal court signalled on 18 March that it
was probably unconstitutional.
