Local elections herald return of Assembly

20 July-August 2023 July-August 2023 PB

Recent elections, and the last census, have

shunted the North onto new ground. There

is no majority for the Union with Britain as it

was, nor a majority for a United Ireland. The

only strong majority is against returning to

violence

Tht’s blocs not blocks — three of them

omentum is continuing towards

restoring a Northern Executive and

Assembly. The results of the local

elections expedite it. They have

consolidated three blocs: Sinn

Féin, DUP and Alliance.

The rise of Alliance to third place means the

DUP faces threats from its left.

The DUP has seen o the challenge from its

Right. The Traditional Unionist Voice failed to

make a significant breakthrough. Of nine

councillors, only two are outside its North Antrim

heartland. It represents part of Unionism, but a

deﬁnite minority.

The DUP suered a less than 1% fall in vote

share. In absolute terms the vote increased by

10,000. The party returned with the same number

of councillors. That stabilisation had looked

unlikely a few months ago.

The DUP is under conﬂicting pressure. Part of

its vote is frustrated at the lack of an Assembly

and Executive. Another is sympathetic to the TUV,

and wants to stay out.

Since the election, the wing in favour of return

to Stormont has been strengthened by the

election of pragmatist Gavin Robinson as Deputy

Leader.

Of course, Sinn Féin had the best election. For

the second successive election they have been

largest party in terms of votes and seats. They

have elected councillors in Ballymena, Coleraine,

Lisburn, and some of Belfast’s leaﬁer suburbs. All

were once considered Sinn-Féin proof.

Sinn Féin ran a strong campaign. The explosive

rise in their vote was fuelled ﬁrst by fear of Brexit

causing a Hard Border. Then the overwhelming

majority of Catholics believe the DUP brought

down the Assembly and Executive because they

would not accept a Catholic First Minister. The

truth is irrelevant. That perception mobilised

Nationalist voters. Thus the Councils served as

proxies for the Assembly.

Signiﬁcantly there has been no noticeable

dissension after Michelle O’Neill’s meeting with

King Charles and attendance at the funeral of

Queen Elizabeth. Both actions were heresy to

Republican traditions though of course

circumstances evolve. A signiﬁcant electoral

challenge from other Republicans did not

materialise. The partial exception was Mid-Ulster.

There, Independent Republicans added a third

seat to the two held.

As Sinn Féin’s vote expands, it becomes less

ideological. Nationalist voters do not want to

jeopardise the chance of the First Ministry. And

elected representatives are now overwhelmingly

from the post-IRA generation, with a dwindling

number of military veterans.

A factor in Sinn Féin’s success is that the

Unionist turn-out was lower than the Nationalist

turn-out. That included areas where Unionist

turn-out is traditionally high, due to the severe

competition posed by Nationalists. Perceived

safe Unionist seats were lost.

To a small degree this was due to demographic

shifts.

However, more important was a lack of

conﬁdence in Unionist leadership. Also important

were signiﬁcant numbers of previous TUV voters

staying at home. Brexit has divided Unionism.

Approximately 30% of Unionists voted Remain.

Some of the most Protestant constituencies

NEWS

Local elections herald

return of Assembly

As the DUP sees off internal challenge

from its Right, there are three key blocs:

Sinn Féin, the DUP and the Alliance Party

By Anton McCabe

voted Remain. Unionist opposition to the Protocol

should not be underestimated, however there is

signiﬁcant division as to how to deal with the

situation.

Overall, as part of consolidation into three

blocs, Alliance progress continued, if more slowly

than in the last local and Assembly elections. The

party has had signiﬁcant success in attracting

those disaected with Sinn Féin and the DUP. It

suffered some difficulties finding viable

candidates. However, paper candidates were still

getting 200 and 300 votes.

As Alliance advanced, the SDLP has retreated.

Its vote fell by fully 25%. Old strongholds such as

North Armagh and South Down have fallen under

the Sinn Féin juggernaut. Even more than

Unionism, the SDLP suffers demographic

pressures. Its vote is older, suering the ravages

of time.

Recently, Independents and small parties have

suered. The traditional squeeze which was two-

way is now three-way.

So, there was a contradictory element to the

local elections. In recent months the North has

seen the biggest wave of industrial action in

years. Despite that, left-wing candidates were

squeezed. People Before Proﬁt lost three of ﬁve

councillors. All three Left councillors on

Fermanagh and Omagh District Council lost.

The reality is that all recent elections, and the

last census, have shunted the North onto new

ground. There is no majority for the Union with

Britain as it was, nor a majority for a United

Ireland. The only strong majority is against

returning to violence.