No change in seat numbers - Village Magazine

12 July-August 2024

ast Belfast is always the most

signiﬁcant contest in the North in

the UK’s General Election. Last

time, DUP leader Gavin Robinson

had a majority of 1,800 over Naomi

Long of Alliance.

Before the election, the DUP has hardened

its stance on the Protocol. Robinson now says

there is a Border in the Irish Sea. He thus

repudiates the deal which his predecessor,

Jeffrey Donaldson, negotiated which

downplayed opposition to the Protocol in the

Unionist community.

Generally, though, the DUP leadership has

accepted that more hard-line voters are lost.

Rather, it is selling the beneﬁts of the Executive.

The election slogan is ‘Making NI Work’. In

the DUP’s election broadcast Robinson says:

“Over the last ten years we’ve been involved in

delivering tangible benefits for Northern

Ireland”. He talks of “working together” to

achieve more.

The DUP’s historical speciality is reading the

mood of the Protestant community. Perhaps

justifying this approach, here is no sign of the

more hard-line Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV)

making a breakthrough.

Signiﬁcantly, there has been no Unionist

backlash at cross-community gestures from its

ministers. Deputy First Minister Emma Little

Pengelly was ﬁlmed trying her hand at camogie

with Michelle O’Neill. Admittedly, Little

Pengelly is a DUP pragmatist. More surprising

was Education Minister and DUP traditionalist

Paul Givan attending the opening of a

Gaelscoil. He spoke some bravura words in

Irish, then proceeded to engage in some Irish

dancing.

Certainly, the DUP will throw resources into

holding East Belfast. This will inevitably lower

its energy in other constituencies. That is very

good news for Sinn Féin’s John Finucane in

North Belfast, the SDLP’s Clare Hanna in South

Belfast and Mid-Down, and Alliance’s Stephen

Farry in North Down.

Despite that, at this stage Long is seen as

favourite in East Belfast though defeat for

Robinson would throw the DUP into turmoil.

That turmoil could even lead to the oft-heralded

split between the pragmatists and

traditionalists.

Outside of East Belfast, there is talk of DUP

seats being under threat in Lagan Valley and

South Antrim. Alliance’s Lagan Valley

candidate Sorcha Eastwood has a good media

proﬁle. The rape charges against former leader

Donaldson, who did not resign his seat but will

not be running in the election (though he will

get a £30,000 “winding-up payment”), have

not helped the DUP. However, last time out

Sorcha Eastwood was 6,500 votes behind him.

Making that deﬁcit up is probably unrealistic.

Former Health Minister Robin Swann of the

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) is closer to the DUP

in South Antrim. The gap there is 2,600.

However, Swann is from the other end of Co

Antrim. The UUP had a bad election launch,

and seems uncertain of its identity.

Another tight contest is Foyle. The SDLP

must hold it to survive.

Last time Colm Eastwood won this from Sinn

No change in

seat numbers

DUP a bit harder on the

Protocol; Sinn Féin and

Alliance becoming catch-all

anti-Unionist front

By Anton McCabe

Féin with a 17,000 majority. He beneﬁted from

a comprehensive backlash against a

catastrophic Sinn Féin MP, Elisha McCallion.

His voters stretched from dissident

Republicans to DUPers. Afterwards, Sinn Féin

purged its local organisation. In the 2022

Assembly elections they were 900 votes ahead

of the SDLP. However, the 17,000 votes for

other parties lean more to the SDLP. Notably,

Colm Eastwood has been very strong on the

issue of Gaza, Sinn Féin perceived as less so.

The SDLP will throw its resources at Foyle

aiming to subvert Sinn Féin attempts to

overturn the SDLP majority. The SDLP’s other

seat, South Belfast and Mid-Down, is safe.

Calling it the North’s Dublin Four is not entirely

unfair. While Colm Eastwood is strongly

Nationalist, Hanna is very pale green. Her

pro-EU socially-liberal stance pulls non-

Nationalist votes. However, overall the SDLP is

in serious decline.

As to Sinn Féin, the candidates are now of

the Post-IRA generation. The most prominent

new recruit is Pat Cullen, former leader of the

Royal College of Nursing. She will win

Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Sinn Féin has withdrawn from four

constituencies. That helps Hanna. In the other

three, it withdrew in favour of Alliance. While

the votes involved are tiny, it represents an

evolution for Sinn Féin and Alliance into quasi-

catch-all anti-Unionist front.

Beyond that, some local detail is important.

The battle for third place in Fermanagh and

South Tyrone will be telling. Alliance seems set

to come ahead of the SDLP in a Nationalist

heartland.

Then, after July 4, the Executive will face a

Starmer Government maintaining the

Conservatives’ spending limits.

DUP: 8 (currently 8); Sinn Féin: 7 (currently

7); SDLP: 2 (currently 2); Alliance: 1 (currently

1); UUP 0 (currently 0).

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