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Ireland's political and cultural magazine
22 April 2015
I
N the UK General Election of May
7th, there is only a possibility
of three of the North’s 18 seats
changing hands. They are East
Belfast, South Belfast, and Fer-
managh and South Tyrone.
The Election also looks like being
another stage in the weakening of the
Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP.
The DUP and Ulster Unionists have
made a pact in four constituencies. The
DUP already holds one of the two seats
where it got a free run, North Belfast: it
is favourite to take the other, East Bel-
fast. In return, the Ulster Unionists were
given a free run in Fermanagh and South
Tyrone, which will be an uphill strug-
gle: and in Newry and Armagh, which is
unwinnable by a Unionist.
East Belfast was the story of the last
General Election in the North. Naomi
Long of the Alliance Party prised a
stunning victory. She was voted for by
the spectrum of those who disliked DUP
leader and First Minister, Peter Rob-
inson. That stretched from Loyalist
paramilitaries to Sinn Féin supporters.
There is no evidence that Long person-
ally made any deal with the Loyalist
paramilitaries. However, some UVF fig-
ures mobilised votes for her.
Long benefited from a perfect storm
that hit the DUP in 2010. Like many
strong characters, Robinson has ene-
mies. Five months before the election,
one of Ireland’s juiciest ever scandals
burst on him. Robinson’s 59-year-old
wife, Iris, had procured loans for her
teenage lover to open a restaurant. She
had failed to declare her interest while a
councillor on Castlereagh Council which
had granted his restaurant permission.
Long is more muscular in her approach
than the archetypal Alliance Party can-
didate. She has also shown herself more
sensitive to the issues affecting working-
class people than most of her party. At
Westminster, she voted against the Wel-
fare Reform Bill, which Alliance wants
enacted in the North.
Long is not having the same good for-
tune now as in 2010. The scandal round
the Robinsons has dissipated. Next
month, she is facing Gavin Robinson (no
relation of the First Minister), without
‘Swish Family Robinson’ baggage and
a standard bearer for modernisation of
the DUP.
The wide-ranging alliance that backed
her has sundered. Three years ago Alli-
ance members on Belfast City Council
voted to fly the Union Jack over Belfast
City Hall on designated days, rather than
every day as previously. That stirred up
a wave of working-class Loyalist protest
– including from some who had backed
Long.
However, many of these working-class
Loyalists are so alienated from the politi-
cal process they are unlikely to vote. The
DUP is playing the social-conservative
card to attract the more middle-class
end of her vote. Many of these are older
and religiously conservative middle-
class Presbyterians. Flying the Union
Jack over Belfast City Hall is not a
make-or-break issue for them. They are
concerned, however, at her support for
gay rights and same-sex marriage.
The numbe rs sp ell out Lon g ’s d iffic ult y.
She had a majority of 1,500 over Peter
Robinson last time: the Ulster Unionists
stood and gained just over 7,300 votes.
This time, they are backing the DUP.
The General Election in the North
won’t break any moulds.
By Anton McCabe
Nobody move
NEWS Northern Ireland
April 2015 23
While some Ulster Unionist voters will
find the DUP too hard to stomach, more
will vote Gavin Robinson than Long.
South Belfast is also in real contention.
SDLP leader Alasdair McDonnell has
won twice due to a split – even shredded
– Unionist vote. The constituency was
then majority Protestant, though it is
now fairly evenly balanced.
South Belfast is different from most
of the rest of the North: it has a large
population born outside the North, and
sizeable enclaves of middle-class trend-
iness. McDonnell has not made his task
easier by imploding publicly in recent
months. His most spectacular gaffe was
to say: “Nobody can predict that a foetus
is not viable and that’s the problem, and
as a GP, I’m fully aware” while speaking
about abortion. At time of writing, his
most recent blunder was to refuse to say
whether David Cameron or Ed Miliband
would make the best UK Prime Minister
– despite the SDLP being British Labour’s
sister party. McDonnell is also victim of
very nasty online campaigning.
Figures indicate McDonnell will have
some difficulty. According to local elec-
tion tallies, five parties are separated by
2,000 votes. The DUP is ahead, then Alli-
ance, followed by the SDLP, Sinn Féin and
Ulster Unionists. Sinn Féin is running
former Belfast Lord Mayor and busi-
nessman Máirtín Ó Muilleoir, who can
encroach on the SDLP vote.
However, McDonnell is slight favour-
ite. The agreement between the DUP
and Ulster Unionists does not embrace
this constituency, meaning both are
standing. UKIP is also running, with its
candidate having a certain base in some
of the working-class Loyalist parts.
For all this, it would be foolish to rule
out the DUP’s Jonathan Bell, coming
through a crowded field. Bell is, how-
ever, at a certain disadvantage in this
middle-class constituency. He once criti-
cised golf clubs for harbouring sectarian
attitudes.
The other constituency which may
change hands is Fermanagh and South
Tyrone. This is not the same constit-
uency as that which elected hunger
striker Bobby Sands in 1981. In the 1995
shake-up of Northern seats, large, mostly
nationalist components were hived off to
West Tyrone and Mid Ulster.
The election in Fermanagh and South
Tyrone will take place in a parallel
universe. It will be a naked sectarian
headcount. This is despite the Ferman-
agh end of the constituency having seen
a major campaign against fracking, and
an anti-fracking activist standing as a
Green candidate.
In the sectarian fracas, Sinn Féin’s
Michelle Gildernew is favourite against
the Ulster Unionist Tom Elliott, who is
also supported by the DUP. There is an
estimated nationalist majority of almost
4,000 on the register. Elliott also suf-
fers from DUP mealy-mouthedness.
In November last year DUP Enter-
prise, Trade and Investment minister
Arlene Foster told the DUP Conference
he couldn’t win the seat, though she
supports him. The SDLP is running a
councillor from west Fermanagh, but
his vote will be squeezed: possibly fur-
ther damaging the SDLP’s viability in the
constituency.
Gildernew specialises in shading tight
finishes. She first won the seat in 2001
with a majority of 53. She retained it in
2010 with a majority of four – against a
single Unionist candidate. She will prob-
ably win, but with a majority at most of
a few hundred.
There is little evidence on the surface
that the election takes place less than two
months after a strike that comprehended
most of the North’s public sector, though
not its local councils. It was political, in
being directed against the budgetary
measures of the Stormont House Agree-
ment. The trade unions made it clear they
were striking against the Executive.
Beneath the surface though, there is
evidence of a shifting in the political
process. Sinn Féin withdrew support
from proposed welfare cuts because it
found its supporters wouldn’t accept
them.
A certain indication of the strike’s
effect will be the vote for People Before
Profit candidate Gerry Carroll in West
Belfast: Carroll was elected to the City
Council last year with the second-high-
est vote in his area.
Broadly, whereas in the Republic, the
water charges issue had a visible politi-
cal impact, the equivalent campaign - on
public sector cuts – will not determine
much in the North.
Little change as ever, with a probable
DUP gain from the Alliance Party. •
Whereas in
the Republic,
the water
charges issue
had a visible
political
impact, the
equivalent
campaign - on
public sector
cuts – will
not determine
much in the
North
“
NEWS Northern Ireland
Chart 1: Northern Ireland constituencies by political party
DUP 8
SINN FÉIN 5
INDEPENDENT 1
ALLIANCE 1
SDLP 3
only one seat will change
