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Ireland's political and cultural magazine
20 March/April 2022
A
SINN FÉIN First Minister is by no
means certain after the Northern
Assembly election in May. It is most
probable Sinn Féin will be the larest
party in terms of votes. In the last
Assembly election, it was only , behind the
DUP. However, there is a precedent for the larest
party in votes not bein the larest party in seats.
In the first Assembly election of 1998, the SDLP
received the largest vote. It was over 5,700 votes
ahead of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). Howev
-
er, the UUP was four seats ahead.
At time of writing, the latest opinion polls put
Sinn Féin on 23.2%. That is 3.8% ahead of the
second-placed DUP.
There are two warnings.
The poll is three months before the election.
And just as importantly, the election takes
place across 18 bitterly fought constituencies.
Sinn Féin currently stands on 27 seats. The DUP
is on 28. For Michelle O’Neill to become First Min
-
ister requires Sinn Féin to hold 27, and the DUP to
lose at least one seat. That is because, according
to the St Andrews Agreement, if the two largest
parties have an equal number of seats, the one
with the largest vote gets the First Ministership.
Currently, it is dicult to see where Sinn Féin
can take any extra seats. Seat numbers seem
maximised. In 2017 the party benefited from a
perfect storm. The Assembly had been reduced
from 108 seats to 90. That meant five, rather than
six, members per constituency. Sinn Féin’s As
-
sembly representation was only reduced by one
seat. It lost two and gained one.
At the other end of the storm the DUP suered a
perfect disaster in 2017. It lost 10 seats. This time
the only seat in apparent serious danger for the
party is the third seat in Strangford. This was held
by 225 votes ahead of the SDLP five years ago.
Sinn Féin no i
Shoe-in – for i
First Ministry i
By Anton McCabe
Fissiparous DUP may give it a run for its money in May election
polity. it is too early to say if the UUP’s Doug Be-
attie has done major damage with his foolish
tweets. At best, rather than going forward he has
been bogged down in damage limitation. He is
also suering from miscalculating in West Ty
-
rone. He removed a popular local candidate and
imposed an outsider, again attracting negative
publicity.
Meanwhile DUP leader Sir Jerey Donaldson
has made his sixth threat in five months to col
-
lapse the Assembly over the Northern Ireland Pro-
tocol. This shows poor negotiating strategy and
confusing supporters. Edwin Poots is beavering
feaverishly away seeking to break the law on agri
-
cultural inspections for EU imports.
And Sinn Féin isn’t necessarily more dignified.
After the controversy over the Beattie tweets,
Radio Ulster’s Nolan Show decided to examine
tweets from other parties. At the time of writing,
11% of Sinn Féin Assembly members have been
found to have posted inappropriate tweets.
DUP First Minister Paul Givan has resigned in
protest at the Protocol. This seems to have largely
satisfied the DUP faithful. They had been restless
at threats that were not followed through. Howev
-
er, the DUP clearly intends to go back into the As-
sembly. Party leader Jerey Donaldson may well
have trouble selling that to the base, as it is very
unlikely the Protocol will be removed.
All forecasts, of course, could be thrown into
the air if the irreconcilable dierences in the DUP
erupt into schism before the election. In the North
things remain in a nasty flux.
For Michelle O’Neill to become First Minister
requires Sinn Féin to hold 27 seats, though its
seats seem maximised; and for the DUP to
lose at least one seat
However, the SDLP has historically always been
close there, but never close enough. The SDLP
has also lost the momentum which it took from
the 2019 Westminster election.
On the surface, the latest polls look good for
Alliance. It is in joint third place with the UUP.
However, it has limited opportunities for gains.
Currently the eight Alliance Assembly members
are either in Belfast, or in constituencies border
-
ing it. Party leader Naomi Long is an able politi-
cian. Otherwise, for a party perceived as drawing
from the middle-classes, it is strangely low on tal
-
ent. Its most realistic chances of extra seats are
in North Belfast, where it was close to the second
Sinn Féin candidate; in South Down, where it was
close to the second SDLP candidate; and possibly
in North Antrim, where it polled well in the 2019
Westminster election. Taking one of these three
would be doing well.
Alliance has traditionally benefited well from
transfers. However, the reduction in Assembly
members has increased the number of votes nec
-
essary to reach quotas.
Contrary to Alliance, the Traditional Unionist
Voice (TUV) is transfer-unfriendly. The latest opin
-
ion poll puts the TUV on 6%. Five-seat constituen-
cies put the TUV at a disadvantage. Its candidates
would have to be at or close to quota on the first
count to have a chance. Beyond party leader Jim
Allister, the party lacks known candidates. On a
bad day for the DUP, TUV transfers would save
some of its seats.
Meanwhile all is turmoil in this dysfunctional
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