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Ireland's political and cultural magazine
36 April 2015
that people should pay in proportion to
use.
But the government regarded water
supply as a technical issue that could be
delegated to an outside agency. It failed
to understand that it was more than
a technical issue; it was a new tax and
that required a political approach. The
tax had to be sold to the public, but Irish
Water was designed to supply water not
sell a policy.
A less obvious failure, but one that will
limit the government’s resurgence, is its
lack of support for the group of people
To secure re-election the two par-
ties need to do a better job selling their
successes, and refuting their failures.
The biggest and most obvious failure
relates to water charges. Quite how the
government managed to make this a
touchstones issue is depressing. With
the problems of water quality and supply
that we’ve seen ubiquitously, most obvi-
ously in Galway, nearly everyone agreed
that the Victorian water infrastructure
needed investment. EU rules meant that
its operating costs needed to be funded
by consumers. A majority also agreed
A
T most a year out from the
general election, we are
beginning to see some shape
to what will be the most
formative election in recent
memory. The 2011 election was called
an ‘earthquake election’ by some politi-
cal scientists because on many metrics
we saw remarkable changes. It was
one of the most volatile election cam-
paigns in post-war Europe. But it was as
remarkable that such a volatile campa ign
produced such a familiar government.
The Irish did what they were used to
doing, kicking out a long-lasting Fianna
Fáil government and replacing it with a
Fine Gael-Labour coalition.
The current government enjoyed a
honeymoon of about 18 months, fol-
lowed by two years of bad news and
poor management. However the last
six months have seen good news on
most fronts: unemployment is down,
employment up, emigration has fallen,
tax receipts are up, and there are ten-
tative signs that Fine Gael and Labour
are benefiting from this in the polls (see
Chart 1).
Given that governments usually
suffer a mid-term slump, a recovery a
year out from an election, accompanied
by economic growth, suggests that the
government could be returned, perhaps
needing the support of independents to
secures a majority. But the government
is not loved, and its improved polling
might say as much about the qualities of
the opposition as it does about Fine Gael
and Labour.
The second post-crisis election in 2016 can be expected to crystallise the shape of
politics for a generation. By Eoin O’Malley
Sinn Féin v Fine Gael
Also in this section:
RCSI and York Street 38
Fuel poverty 39
Human rights 40
Public-sector reform 41
POLITICS
Renua is proof
that everyone
wants a new
party, until
they see it
“
I’m not even
thinking of it.
Are you?
April 2015 37
stay out, hoping to build on successes to
solidify its position as a top-two party in
the state, hoping that it can lead a gov-
ernment following the election in 2020
or 2021.
Labour’s big mistake was entering
government, when it could have been by
far the biggest opposition party. Having
chosen government, it will depend on
personalities and transfers, but it needs
to be less apologetic. Apologies indicate
that you made a mistake. Labour prom-
ised too much in 2011 when it didn’t
need to. It must have known that such
promises wold leave hostages to fortune
on the electoral battlefield, but having
failed to protect university fees and child
benefit it now thinks that apologising
will somehow make it better. It won’t. It
just reminds voters.
Instead the party should be more
aggressive in reminding voters of
where Ireland was in 2011 and where it
is now. As the smaller party in govern-
ment it has a tough job. The larger party
usually gets to claim the victories, the
smaller gets blamed for the defeats. It
should mark out its own victories, and
paint Labour’s name all over these poli-
cies. The problem is identifying the area.
Its victories may have been largely neg-
ative – in blocking Fine Gael. It should
mark out a policy aimed at the 24-45 age
group – perhaps related to house-build-
ing – and pursue it aggressively. It won’t
deliver results before the election, but it
could at least secure it a legacy as a posi-
tive force in government.
Fianna Fáil is too small to keep doing
what it did with remarkable success for
eighty years. Dev famously noted that the
name Fianna Fáil was suitable because
it was untranslatable. No one could
pin it down. That worked when it was
the party of government: a pragmatic,
non-ideological deliverer of results. But
Fianna Fáil is still stuck in the high gear
the party used when it was a big party. It
no doubt feels it is working hard – look at
its work on mortgage interest rates – but
all that energy appears to generate little
traction with public opinion.
Its problem is that it’s hard to see what
Fianna Fáil stands for that Fine Gael and
Sinn Féin don’t do better or more. You
want a responsible party of government?
Then Fine Gael is your man. You like non-
ideological nationalism centred on the
glorification of the ordinary hard-work-
ing Irish? Sinn Féin offers that.
Meanwhile Fine Gael and Sinn Féin are
conspiring (well not actually conspiring)
who bought houses at the height of the
boom and the ones who are trying to buy
them now. There has been no attempt to
curtail banks from increasing interest
rates. Nor is there any concerted attempt
massively to increase the supply of hous-
ing. The government, as one the largest
property owners in the country seems to
view increased property prices as a good
thing. But it’s damaging Ireland’s recov-
ery because a new generation of people is
being asked to pay excessive amounts for
a place to live. These costs will increase
pressure for pay hikes.
It’s not for nothing that the groups
that are least likely to vote for the gov-
ernment are aged between 25 and 45.
This is the generation that is least secure
about its future, and all parties hoping to
make electoral gains will have to make
them here.
Fine Gael looks in pretty good shape
for the next election. Its message will
be simple: recovery and stability. It will
frame the choice as between the progress
it has made and the risk of a Sinn Féin-
led government. It will warn voters
that they shouldn’t throw it all away to
populist promises of miracle recover-
ies. Rather, it can suggest, recoveries
are delicate flowers that need to be nur-
tured. Since Fine Gael has shown itself
to be inept at selling its message in the
past one would wonder whether it could
throw it all away by succumbing to its
own populist tendencies.
Sinn Féin will frame the election as a
choice between it and austerity. It obvi-
ously suits the party that the election will
be seen as a choice between it and Fine
Gael. Converting opinion poll support
into seats may be its biggest challenge.
It has two obstacles. Its supporters, pre-
dominantly young, working-class men,
don’t vote and it will take its entire for-
midable machine to mobilise them on the
day. It’s also not clear to what extent the
party is repulsive to transfers. Certainly
by-election results show that in fights
between it and anyone else for a last seat
you’d have to be on anyone else.
Another danger for Sinn Féin is its
choice to tie itself closely to Syriza. If
the Greek experiment ends badly, with
Syriza making significant concessions
to Europe, or worse leaving the Euro,
it might come to regret not modelling
itself instead on the Scottish National-
ists. In fact we might prepare ourselves
for that comparison being made by the
party. Of course, unlike the SNP, Sinn
Féin doesn’t want to govern yet. It will
to destroy Fianna Fáil. For both the elim-
ination of Fianna Fáil should be their goal
as it will secure their long-term position.
Meanwhile Fianna Fáil is playing it safe,
ensuring its own survival, but unless one
or both of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin really
screw things up Fianna Fáil is just look-
ing at a dignified decline.
Like the other small parties Renua
chances of returning TDs depend on
marshalling good candidates in partic-
ular constituencies. Renua, like Fianna
Fáil, has a good name, and a suitably
appealing logo. But it has not got over
being seen as the anti-abortion party. I
suspect it never will. Renua is proof that
everyone wants a new party, until they
see it. That’s one of the reasons people
like saying they’ll vote for independ-
ents. Since they offer few explicit policies
voters can project what they think of the
world on an independent. You assume
that they’ll think what you think. It’s
also a nice way of saying ‘I don’t know
how I’ll vote’.
The independents won’t do as well as
polls suggest. By the time of an election
voters start to think about government,
but Shane Ross has given them a boost
by implying that they could be part of a
government.
Whether by luck or design, the election
is setting itself up to be Fine Gael versus
Sinn Féin. This suits both parties as they
become the poles to which voters point
depending on their ideological position.
We could be looking at a party system
that will be in place for a generation. •
Dr Eoin O’Malley is senior lecturer in
politics at School of Law and Government,
Dublin City University.
Labour’s
victories have
been negative
– blocking
Fine Gael. It
should pitch
at the 24-45
age group –
perhaps with a
house-building
policy – to
secure itself
a positive
legacy
“
Chart 1: Poll trends since the last election
Source: Tom Louwerse, Trinity College Dublin
01-04-11
40%
Fine Gael
30%
20%
10%
0%
01-10-11 01-04-12 01-10-12 01-04-13 01-10-13 01-04-14 01-10-14
Sinn Féin
Green Party
Others
Labour
Fianna Fáil
