Spring unsprung - Village Magazine

38May 2015

ITH po-faced pomp the Government has

launched its mutli-annual ﬁscal pro-

gramme, aspirationally titled ‘The

Spring Statement’. A lengthy, over-

manned delivery of the programme

required the strenuous eﬀorts of a score of civil serv-

ants, economists and two ministers to energise the

public imagination. Yet, for all this eﬀort, it smacked of

the vintage  “A Lot Done. More to Do” election

slogan of Bertie Ahern.

The strenuous eﬀorts ﬁzzled out before the speeches

started, for the Spring Statement sounded like self-con-

gratulatory pre-electioneering loaded with promises of

the future that rely on a heavy dose of hope and faith,

rather than sound fundamentals.

The political timing was good as there is Spring in

the air, in public perceptions of the economic recovery.

But there is still an arresting chill in the way house-

holds are feeling improvements in their own lives.

Energising people to buy into a new economic plan in

such an environment requires two things: strong vision

and focus on reality.

Both were lacking in the Spring Statement.

Ignoring the reality that the state continues to

borrow to fund its liabilities, there were promises of

pay rises for public-sector employees and tax cuts for

working people. All underwritten by growth forecasts

that were driven by an optimism not seen since the

days when a soft landing in the property sector was

still showing up in the Department of Finance’s tea

leaves.

The growth and recovery bit in the Spring Statement

was a sort of comic relief that none of us really needed

and few of us really enjoyed. It was also nauseatingly

predictable: we’ve heard this song so many times in

recent years. Based on Department of Finance projec-

tions, the Irish economy is expected to grow on

average by .% annually between  and . To

make things sound more plausible, the Department

referenced in its projections the IMF forecasts from

October . Alas, a couple of weeks before the

Spring Statement publication, the very same IMF came

out with revised forecasts, putting Irish real GDP

growth at an average of .% annually for the same

The unreforming

Spring Statement is

over-optimistic and

spendthrift

Constantin Gurdgiev

OPINION

INTERLOPER

Spring unsprung