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October-November 2024 21
A three-and-a-half party system is emerging. That is,
dominant Unionist and Nationalist parties, a Centre
party, and a smaller anti-Agreement Unionist party.
Rump SDLP and UUP parties may just subsist
T
wo Northern party leaders
resigned in August. Ulster
Unionist Party (UUP) leader Doug
Beattie resigned first. SDLP leader
Colum Eastwood followed.
It’s 26 years since the SDLP attracted the
biggest vote, in the first Assembly
election, though the UUP actually won
more seats. Now the SDLP holds too few
Assembly members to tie down an
Executive Minister.
Its new leader, Claire Hanns, is able. She
is MP for South Belfast and Mid-Down. The
South Belfast part is very different to the rest
of the North.
There was no sign of a heave against
Eastwood. However, he resigned after three
poor elections in three years. In the July
Westminster election, the SDLP held both its
seats. It stood in all 18 constituencies.
However, Hanna admittted the party only
fought three. The result in Fermanagh and
South Tyrone was significant. It is part of
Northern Nationalism’s traditional
heartland. Alliance outpolled the SDLP. The
Alliance candidate is not known to have
conducted any significant canvassing.
Whichever way it turns, the SDLP faces
problems. Eastwood strongly promotes a
united Ireland. However, Sinn Féin dominates
that angle. Zeal on that would cost the SDLP
Unionist transfers necessary in some areas.
Moving to a less Nationalist position is no
solution either, since Alliance owns the
space for non-sectarian centre party.
Doug Beattie had earlier resigned as UUP
leader. Beattie had tried to liberalise the
party of Craig and Molyneaux. This may have
gone too far for some in the party.
Importantly, there were problems with his
management style. He tended to run the
party as if he were still an army officer.
New honcho, Mike Nesbitt, is a former
leader. Indeed you may have thought he had
remained leader. A former presenter of UTV
Live, he belongs to the same wing of the
party as Beattie. He resigned in 2012,
claiming he had lost his mandate and his
return unopposed shows a lack of energy in
the UUP.
The UUP is not in as perilous position as
the SDLP. It is, though, close.
In July it won back a Westminster seat from
the DUP. However, it could not capitalise on
the DUP’s difficulties. Unionist voters spoke
in that election. What they said is unclear
and Village had difficulty predicting it in its
last edition. It may even be a move away
from primarily saying No. The DUP lost a seat
Stability bu no business s usul;
nd some inflmmory rcism
SDLP and UUP face existential problems
By Anon McCbe
each to the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV),
the UUP and Alliance. In South Belfast and
Mid-Down, some even supported Claire
Hanna.
The DUP’s Ian Paisley lost North Antrim to
Jim Allister of the TUV (Traditional Unionist
Voice). Many in his own party saw Paisley
Junior as arrogant and too prone to scandal.
They believe a new candidate can win back
the seat. There are, though worrying signs
for the DUP in North Antrim. Though the DUP
developed there, it now only holds one of its
five Assembly seats.
Paisley was DUP old guard. That cohort
are toxic to significant numbers of Unionist
voters. The party hopes younger candidates
will break down the new resistance. The
pragmatists now control the Party and they
are pitching not at hardliners but at more
centrist Unionist voters.
Over two elections, Alliance has stalled.
In the Westminster election, it won one and
lost one. However, the decline of the SDLP
and UUP provides an opening. There is a
sizeable electorate to whom the DUP and
Sinn Féin remain toxic. Alliance further
benefits from being tranfer-friendly.
Allister’s victory was not all good for the
TUV. He was the most able performer in the
90-seat Assembly but in Westminster he will
be just one of 650. His time to speak will be
short.
Sinn Féin is most satisfied of all the parties
after the summer. It has consolidated
Fermanagh and South Tyrone, come close in
East Derry and finished within striking
distance in Foyle.
All indications suggest a three-and-a-half
party system is emerging. That is, dominant
Unionist and Nationalist parties, a Centre
party, and a smaller anti-Agreement Unionist
party. Rump SDLP and UUP parties may just
subsist.
At present, the Executive seems stable.
DUP leader Gavin Robinson has said he is
not going to collapse the Executive. DUP
canvassers faced criticism from supporters
for doing so.
However, Robinson is not in control of
events. The Executive depends on a block
grant from a Starmer Government keeping
to Conservative spending limits.
Meanwhile, race riots during the summer
showcased the inflammatory situation. A
large protest called by trade unions
challenged those riots but the situation
remains incendiary.
NEWS
Tht er is so over
VillageOctNov24.indb 21 03/10/2024 14:27
