The left must prepare for the next election

3 0 March 2016

sthedustsettlesandthevictors

andvanquishedcounttheirbless-

ingsornursetheirwoundsalleyes

areonthemainpoliticalkingmaker,

MicheálMartin.FiannaFáilislikely

toplaythelonggameandholdoutforaslong

as possiblebefore conceding that ithas no

optionbuttoshoreupaFineGae-ledgovern-

ment. There will be much hot air about the

responsibilitiesofothers,includingSinnFéin,

to‘stepuptothemark’butthepeoplehave

spokenandtheonlytallythatcountsisthecom-

bined90-plusseatsofthetwomainparties.

Thedownwardandsteadydriftoftheideo-

logicalrightfrom80%ofthevotelessthan

twenty years ago to just over 55% in 2016

makesasinglelargepartyoftherightanhis-

toric inevitability no matter how much the

leadersofFGandFFresistit.Butresisttheywill,

usinganyexcusetondreasonstodiffereven

thoughthereishardlyasliverbetweenthemon

fundamentalpolicies.

Itispossiblethattheirreluctancetocome

together or toagree aminority government

arrangement along with right-minded inde

pendentsorsmallerpartieswillleadtoanother

general electionwithinmonthsbuttheyare

bothsavvyenoughtoknowthattheelectorate

willnotrewardsuchfailure.

Besides,thereisnoguaranteethattheresult

willbeverydifferentwiththetwocentre-right

partieseachhoveringaroundthe25%markbut

unabletoreachthenumbersrequiredtoforma

stableandcoherentgovernmentthatcanimple-

menttheirprogrammes.

Anotherfactorthatwillchangethedynamic

thenexttimearoundisthecertaintythat,with

thepossibleexceptionofMartin,thefaceson

thetelevisionforthedebatesbetweenthefour

mainpartyleaderswillbedifferent.Kennyand

Burtonwillbedumpedbytheirrespectivepar-

tiesfortheirpoorshowinginGE16whileGerry

Adamscouldbereplacedbyayoungerleader

duringthecomingDáilterm.

AsthetwopartiesoftheRightplayhardto

get,theLeftcannotclaimthehistoricbreak-

through that some are hailing. Labour has

sufferedatraumaticimplosionandjustman-

agedtoholditsspeakingrightsintheDáil.Sinn

Féin increased its numbersbut advancedto

nowherenearwhatseemedpossiblejustafew

monthsago.Obtainingjustover13%ofrst

preferencevotesiswaydownonthe17-24%it

polledconsistentlyoverthepreviouseighteen

months.

A relentless and hostile campaign led by

IndependentNewsandMediaandthedifcul-

ties Adamsfacedduringsomeoftheleader

debatesandinone-on-oneinterviewswerecer-

tainlyfactorsinthislatedropinsupport.But

partystrategistswillalsobelookingattherise

ofthefarleftinurbanareaswhichateintoits

potential vote, and atmistakes such as the

three candidate experiment in Donegal as

issuestobeaddressed.

Thatsaid,SinnFéinhasincreaseditsvoteby

50%andhasaraftofnew,yetexperienced,

menandwomeninthe32ndDáilprovidinga

solidplatformforitsprojectofleadingaleft-

winggovernmentby2020.Adamsbroughtin

ImeldaMunsterinLouthandhasasecureseat

intothedistantfuture.Anydecisionbyhimto

stepdownwillbedictatedbyhisperceptionof

thebestinterestsoftheparty,northandsouth,

andnotbyhispoliticalormediaopponents.

Itwassomethingofanexaggerationonthe

partoftheAAA-PBPtodescribetheoutcomeas

apoliticalearthquake,lessstillarevolution,

whentheymanagedtopullinjust4%ofthevote

betweenthem.Dancingonthepoliticalgrave-

stones of the Labour casualties is not only

crudebutexposestheirvisceralandincorrect

tendencytobelievethattheyaretheonlytrue

believersintheworldofprogressives.Itisa

viewwhichguaranteeslong-termirrelevance

andpoliticalimpotence.

As the noise subsided in the immediate

The left must prepare

for the next election

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are

right-wing, unreconstructed and will

eventually merge

by Frank Connolly

The next time around

with the possible

exception of Martin, the

faces on the television

for the debates between

the four main party

leaders will be different

POST-ELECTION

March 2016 3 1

aftermathofthevotesomeofthenewandre-

electedLeftindependentswerematureenough

torecognisethatthepotentialoftheRightto

Changemovementinbringingaswatheofpar-

ties,groupsandindividualstogetherwasnot

realisedthistimearoundbutcouldbethesort

ofvehicletoimpelgreaterleft-wingunityanda

realelectoralchallengedowntheroad.

The combined votes of SF, Labour,Social

Democrats,Greensandupto15progressive

independentswouldoutnumberFiannaFáilin

theextremelyunlikelyeventofsuchagrand

coalitionwiththeSoldiersofDestinybeingcob-

bled together. Martin and his circle have

insistedallthroughtheelectionthattheywould

notjoinwithSFunderanycircumstances,while

Adamswouldnditdifculttobringhisparty

intoanarrangementwhichcouldhaltorreverse

itssteadygrowth.Ithascapturedasignicant

portionoftheunder-34votewhichdoesnot

entertain theoldestablishment.Itneeds to

ensurethatitremainsvibrantandradicaland

notanotherversionofthesameold.

ForalongtimetheSFleaderhasinsistedthat

hewillnotrepeatthemistakesoftheLabour

Partywhichhasbeenemasculatedforwhatit

seesasitssacriceinputtingthecountryrst.

Sincethelocalelectionsin2014thedemiseof

Labourhasbeenapparentalthoughthescale

ofits seatlosswas not. The2014elections

showedthesteadyrecoveryofFiannaFáilas

formersupportersdesertedLabourandFGto

whomthey‘lent’theirvotesin2011.

The Labour pact in 2016 with Fine Gael

arguablyprotedthelargerpartyinlatetrans-

fersinthenalcountsinseveralconstituencies

and brought aseat bonus to the Blueshirts

unjustiedbytheirpercentagevote.Ifthereis

alessonforLabouritisthatdoingtheright

thingdoesnotnecessarilyimpressthevoters

unlesstheyfeeltheresultsintheirlives.Too

manypromisesintheheatofthe2011campaign

wereundeliveredandpartyleadersfailedto

detectthedisenchantmentandangerofhuge

numbersofworkingpeopleuntiltoolate.For

longperiodsLabouralsofailedtopromoteits

actualachievementsincludingmarriageequal-

ity and workers rights legislation and the

preventionofawidedisposalofstateassets.

Therecoveryisrealbutonlyforthosewhodo

nothavetousethedefuncthealthserviceor

strugglewithmortgagesandchildcarecosts

andwhoseworkisnotbadlypaidandprecari-

ous.Tellingpeopletheyarebetteroffwhenthey

are struggling to survive only feeds

ingratitude.

ItisamatterofsomeironythatSFandthe

SocialDemocratsrefusedtogodownthepopu-

listFGrouteofabolishingtheUSCorexcluding

thoseearninglessthan€70,000asLabourand

€80,000asFFproposed.Thepeoplesimply

refused tobelieve manyof thepromiseson

offerfromthegovernmentparties.Oncebitten

twiceshy.

Ahugenumberturnedtoindependentsofall

hueswiththeKerryvotersinparticulargivinga

lashtotheperceivedenemiesamongtheélites

inDublin.TheRaeNuadynastyisassuredof

ascendancyforalongtimeyet.Thefactthatup

tosevenotherindependentswonseatsalong

thewestcoastconrmsthatruraldecline,and

therecentooding,areissuesthatthemain-

streampartiesignoredattheirperil.

Incontrast,theopportunisticattemptsby

LucindaCreighton,TerenceFlanaganandBilly

Timminstore-inventthePDsandgrabafew

seatsaroundaFGcabinettableendedintears

andbitterrecrimination.Instead,EamonRyan

re-emergedwithCatherineMartinanewdeputy

in the Green’s original south Dublin

stronghold.

Theunderlyingpatternindicatesthatthepar-

tiesoftheRightwillhavetoedgecloserifthey

aretoprovideastableadministrationevenifit

takesanotherelectiontoforcethemtogether.

AnyonesufferingtheillusionthatFiannaFáil

hastransmogriedfromthepeopleofproperty

tothe centreleft should study their history

booksagain.

Acoalition ofwhatever sortbetween the

civilwarpartiesposeschallengesandoppor-

tunities for those who want radical and

progressivechange.Despitealltheelection

wafe,therewillbeassaultsonpublicser-

vicesandthosewhoprovidethemandpolicies

thatbenetthewealthywillendure.Thefuture

fortheLeftwillbedeterminedbythecapacity

ofitsvariousparts,includingthecommunity

organisations,tradeunionsandpoliticalfor-

mationstoresistthoseassaultsandtooffera

crediblealternativewhenthenextelection

comesaround.

The lesson for Labour it is that

doing the right thing does not

impress voters unless they feel

the results in their lives