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Ireland's political and cultural magazine
6 4 July 2016
I
t attests to the eccentricity and archaic nature of
British democracy that it has taken all of 13 years
to finally receive an independent report from John
Chilcot on why Britain was dragged into supporting
the George W Bush invasion of Iraq in 2003. Viewed
from the perspective of today it is not unfair to conclude
that the war on Iraq was "another time, another place”.
A similar phenomenon registered in Ireland with both
the Mahon inquiry into planning corruption and the
Moriarity Tribunal into Mr Haughey's money-taking.
Back in 2003 I was a backbench government member
of the Dáil, making speeches, and writing sometimes
controversial articles for the Evening Herald that were,
in some cases, critical of the government I was man-
dated to support. As to the War in Iraq I was strident in
my support of the US position but justified it on the
basis of the record of Saddam Husssein rather than any
spurious resort to the idea that he held or was ready to
deploy chemical, biological or nuclear weapons. In
short I believed him to be a nasty dictator, quite capa-
ble of twinning up with terrorist networks like those
who had carried out the 9/11
attack on the World Trade Center
in New York.
During my 14 years in the Dáil,
the only occasion on which Bertie
Ahern rang each of his deputies
in turn, was before the Dáil vote
on the use of Shannon Airport by
the US Army to transport troops
and military materiel to Iraq.
Keeping Shannon open to the
Americans was a vital national
interest in the context of US sup-
port for our peace process,
Foreign Direct Investment from
the states and the historic connection between the two
countries. Bertie Ahern was taking no chances with the
relationship. It was hardly
necessary that he ring me
given my very public support for
the US. Many of us were hugely
spooked by the huge demonstration that
occurred in Shannon and the effect it had on some of
our US investor friends. Quite a few leading US busi-
ness people rang me as minister to complain of the
protest, as if we in the government were somehow
responsible for the large turnout when in fact we were
the subject of the ire of those demonstrating precisely
because we insisted on facilitating the US troops there.
When America goes to war everyone, even sane-minded
businessmen, closes ranks.
Meanwhile Tony Blair was performing all sorts of
gymnastics in his efforts to ensure that the UK would
be quids in with its long-term partners on their latest
military adventure. Chilcot's report reinforces what we
already suspected: that private notes written by Tony
Blair to George Bush, well before the military interven-
tion required justification, had pledged the UK to join
the war effort no matter what the circumstances.
Tony Blair was prepared to gamble everything,
including his own long-term credibility, on supporting
the US because he clearly felt that the vital or ‘special’
relationship between the US and the UK superseded all
other considerations. Depending on your view of Blair
and the war itself this was either a very brave or foolish
decision. It is certainly one that has dogged Blair in
retirement but on the other hand underpinned huge
fees and earnings in his political afterlife as interna-
tional advisor and investment professional.
It is deeply ironic that the Chilcot report should come
out precisely at a time when Britain is going through its
own, distinct, existential crisis caused by the elector-
ate's decision to vote to exit the European Union.
The war in Iraq led to a puncturing of the ‘politics of
spin’ so adroitly deployed by both Bill Clinton and then
Time’s up
for the elite
But after Depression, Brexit and
Iraq will the centre hold in the UK,
the EU and abroad?
BREXIT
by Conor Lenihan,
in London
"I will be
with you,
whatever"
Things will not fall apart
in the EU. It is not clear
from particular countries
from Europe to the US
to the Muslim world and
the former Soviet Union.
In Ireland the centre is
reasserting itself.
OPINION
Conor
Lenihan
REALPOLITIK
July 2016 6 5
Tony Blair. Blair and Clinton were the world's
high priests of a political art that has enjoyed a
prolonged life.
Its final destruction is evident in the recent
referendum result in the UK and the sundering
of David Cameron's career as Prime Minister.
Cameron continued the largely value-free poli-
tics of Blair and Clinton, reinforced by the gloss
of the old Etonian, one who had worked directly
as a professional in the public relations indus-
try. Cameron, superficially, believed he could
both spin the EU into major concessions on how
it would reform itself and then win the referen-
dum. He came back with meagre fare and the
electorate believed it was being sold a pup. He
was prepared to risk selling his country and his
legacy for his party and, now this has been
detected, there is every danger his party will be
the greatest loser of all.
Under a new Conservative leader the UK is
likely to get a Norway-style deal from Brussels,
with a face-saving, but totemic, gesture made
to accommodate it on the hot-temperature issue
of immigration. Few in the EU will enjoy appeas-
ing the UK but the importance of the City of
London and the trading-investment relation
-
ships make it foolhardy to push it out
altogether.
We are in the middle of the collapse of the
period of politics when everything the elector-
ate did or said was monitored by focus groups
so the political elite could play it back for the
electorate, to maximum political advantage at
least in the short term. This was the era when
Blair and figures such as Peter Mandelson, the
Prince of Darkness, shaped a politics which, in
effect, suppressed the truth to the point where
every mistake, contradiction and error could be
justified or apologised – parallel to the truth.
They were in effect creatively re-working what
had already happened in the private sector -
advanced customer care meets mendacious
marketing by way of polling research.
In many ways it was the triumph of ephem-
eral, commercial, values over substantial
political, and public, service.
In the US, George Bush and his neo-conserv-
ative supporters and friends became the first
major victims of the souring of the Iraq War and
its aftermath. It is quite clear that the Neocons
(Wolfowitz, Cheney, Rumsfeld etc.) had in a real
sense captured the President's brain, a fact
acknowledged publicly by George Bush Senior
who claims they exerted far too much influence
over his son. Colin Powell was also a victim of
the conflict as it is clear he was ruthlessly
exploited by his own administration to present,
suspect intelligence to the UN Security Council
as part of the US bid to get it on side for the war.
In the UK, such was the headlong rush to sup-
port the Americans that intelligence that
pointed away from evidence that Saddam had
nuclear weapons was quietly dropped, sup-
pressed and the intelligence dossier itself
'sexed up' by the spin merchants employed by
the government.
If the war in Iraq represents the modern high
point of the special relationship between the
UK and the US, the decision to exit the European
Union must signal a significant subversion of
its utility to Americans. Sure, like all politicians,
Obama has made the ritual announcement that
the vote will not affect the special relationship
between the two countries. In fact the US, back
to the time of Clinton, has been incrementally
re-defining its relationship with Europe so that
Germany is becoming the "critically important"
US friend in Europe. The change will now
become more overt.
Another festering casualty of the war in Iraq
has been the British Labour Party. So tainted
was the legacy of Tony Blair, and his centrist
Labour colleagues that, when given a free vote
and an opportunity to escape this legacy the
ordinary members of the party voted by a huge
margin for a radical-left Trotskyite alternative
in the right-on shape of Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn
was an outspoken opponent of the Iraq war and
has tactically apologised for the party’s promo-
tion of the Iraq war, even as Blairite MPs and
others seek to displace him as leader.
The 2003 Iraq War and the Great Recession
of 2008 are still working themselves out in
terms of global politics. Brexit cuts across the
evolving fallout.
Deference to the elite is gone forever. Pop-
ulism has become the order of the day and not
exclusively the preserve of fringe parties and
the traditional left.
Right-wing movements are making the most
headway, as they did in the 1930s, when the
existing economic order was seen to fail. The
winners include Trump in the US, Le Pen in
France and UKIP in the UK. Others lurk, even in
progressive Western Europe.
The British referendum featured an illogical
debate about migrants which was allowed to
triumph over basic national interest. The results
have been unpleasant but have been registered
all around the world by forces both vicious and
ambitious. Ordinary migrants complain of
being subject to increased abuse and attack.
The fact that two of the leading campaigners for
a British exit (Farage and Johnson) have now
fled the stage exemplifies how obviously unap-
pealing it will be to piece a unifying UK politics
back together.
The EU system, despite its critics, is far to big
to fall apart. It is also the case that those ruling
over Europe are now fully battle-trained in the
art of crisis management. The migration crisis,
the euro crisis and the threats of default in
Greece means there are experienced hands at
the tiller in the European institutions. Things
will not fall apart.
It is not clear whether particular countries
from Europe to America to the Muslim world and
the former Soviet Union will be so lucky.
In Ireland there are signs that the centre in
Irish politics is about to reassert itself. Serial
crises have led the public to the edge of the
abyss. They have stared into this abyss and the
uncertainty experienced may lead to a return to
more traditional voting patterns.
Fianna Fáil's advance in the opinion polls was
simply explained by a senior Civil Servant l
spoke to recently - "Fianna Fáil is in power but
not in office: Fine Gael is in office but not in
power".
Blair: master of spin, terminally exposed by Chilcot
