Menu
Ireland's political and cultural magazine
PB April 2023 April 2023 13
Jeffrey Donaldson has set up a consultation
panel to formulate his Party’s view on the
Framework. The answer he hopes for is
obvious. All eight are DUP pragmatists
After utumn
T
he Northern local elections of 16 May
will be another step towards the return
of the Assembly and Executive.
Unionists are increasingly confident of
seeing o the potential challenge from
the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV).
The TUV has slipped to 5% in the polls. There
is no sign of the party making a significant
breakthrough. Leader Jim Allister is extremely
able. However, he has not built a team and that
reduces his party’s electoral force.
The DUP is tactically adept enough not to
return immediately to the Executive after the local
elections, because it would be perceived to have
tricked the electorate by not announcing its
intention during the local election campaign and
that is precisely the sort of quasi-ethical issue on
which Allister would go to town.
However, the election will free up the DUP. The
party knows there will be no significant changes
to the Protocol, beyond the Windsor Framework.
However, there may well be changes to domestic
British legislation which it can present as an
acceptable concession. On the one hand, Rishi
Sunak has no real commitment to the North. On
the other, the British Government knows the
collapse of the Northern political process would
strike a blow to its image, and its image is very
fragile.
The DUP itself is still under contradictory
pressures. Its core support is against the Protocol
and the Windsor Framework. In the background
there is resistance to a Sinn Féin First Minister.
Polls, though, say only 35% of the Unionist
electorate holds Unionists should stay out of the
institutions until the Protocol and Framework are
scrapped.
That is because there is an understanding
international agreements cannot be renegotiated.
There is an equal understanding in the DUP that
it cannot ignore the section of the electorate
which votes Sinn Féin. More, staying out of the
Assembly and Executive until another Assembly
election would strengthen Sinn Féin and implicate
the DUP in allegations of extreme political bad
faith and impropriety.
It does not mean the Unionist electorate
accepts the Protocol and Framework. In a Lucid
Talk poll, 35% think the Framework poses a threat
to the North’s position in the United Kingdom.
That represents more than two thirds of Unionists.
The DUP has invested its soul in the political
process. Importantly, saying ‘no’ permanently is
not a viable strategy. The Unionist electorate
favours devolution. They do not trust the British
Government and know Direct Rule would put
them in a weak position.
Yet another significant factor is that the DUP
NEWS
Traditional but not
DEMOCRATIC
The DUP will see off the TUV and be back in
the Executive before the end of the year
By Anton McCabe
sees itself as the main party of business. (It is less
certain whether business sees that.) Importantly,
business wants the Assembly and Executive
back. Business also wants the Windsor
Framework.
The statements of DUP leader Jerey Donaldson
indicate an edging back towards return to the
Assembly. His statement on the Windsor
Framework was no ringing endorsement. He was,
though, far further from a damning repudiation:
“The Windsor Framework while undoubtedly
representing significant progress across a
number of areas does not deal with some of the
fundamental problems at the heart of our current
diculties. It is my current assessment that there
remain key areas of concern which require further
clarification, re-working and change as well as
seeing further legal text”.
Belfast Telegraph commentator Alex Kane is,
overall, the sharpest analyst of Northern politics.
Kane believes the DUP will return to Stormont. He
has written: “I think it’s likely the DUP will bank
the gains from the Framework, point out that the
UK and EU will not be returning to the negotiating
table anytime soon, and stress the benefits of a
return to devolution over a return to some form of
direct rule. That will mean facing down some
internal opponents, external critics and an
electoral challenge from the TUV”.
Jerey Donaldson has set up a consultation
panel to formulate his Party’s view on the
Framework. The answer he hopes for is obvious.
All eight members are DUP pragmatists. They
include a businessman who supported a Remain
vote in the Brexit referendum.
Too much should not be read into the DUP at
Westminster voting against the Framework. They
had the luxury of doing so without consequences
albeit without much credibility. They knew the
legislation would bass comfortably. Their vote
kept the support base happy.
To continue pressure on the DUP, Secretary of
State Chris Heaton-Harris is threatening a budget
which would mean severe cuts in the North. The
most likely outcome would be to increase
pressure on the DUP. However, threats and cuts
are both dangerous strategies, and could
backfire.
All in all, though, the question is not if the
Assembly and Executive are re-established. It is
when. Wise money is on some time after the trees
again begin to shed their leaves.
