Politics

Exclusive: the traders report on the Economic Impacts of the Proposed Traffic Management Changes in the Draft Dublin City Centre Transport Plan 2023 New report says Transport Plan would reduce retail spending in the City Centre by €141,253,366 in 2028 (when all the proposed changes would be in place) and lead to corresponding reductions in gross value added (GVA) of €87,253,471, employment 1,787 retail jobs, wages €94,198,090 and Exchequer revenue €18,262,152. By Michael Smith A report prepared for the Dublin City Centre Traders Alliance Limited by Dr Pat McCloughan, Managing Director of PMCA Economic Consulting, concludes that  the proposed traffic management changes  being proposed by Dublin City Council (DCC) and the National Transport Authority (NTA) would reduce retail spending in the City Centre by €141,253,366 in 2028 (when all the proposed changes would be in place) and lead to corresponding reductions in gross value added (GVA) of €87,253,471, employment 1,787 retail jobs, wages €94,198,090 and Exchequer revenue €18,262,152. However, these adverse impacts are only the direct economic impacts due to the proposed changes, which are driven by the plan to reduce cars in the City Centre even though the evidence indicates that retail spending by car users is highest among all modes of travel to the City Centre, according to the PMCA report commissioned by an alliance of Brown Thomas, Arnotts, Jervis Shopping Centre, Retail Excellence Ireland, Restaurants Association of Ireland, Louis Copeland & Sons, the Irish Parking Association, Best Car Parks and Fitzwilliam Real Estate Capital. When account is also taken of the knock-on impacts on other sectors of the Irish economy then the consequences of the proposals are even greater. As indicated in the summary table below, adding together the total economic impacts in regard to GVA, wages and Exchequer revenue leads to the total adverse monetary impact (in 2028) of €390,585,676 or in current (2024 terms) €361,001,121 in the Irish economy, with the risk of the loss of up to 6,242 jobs in the economy (1,787 in retailing and 4,455 in other sectors). Moreover, many of those at work in the retail sector in the City Centre are on comparably low wages in what are nevertheless important jobs and who may struggle to find new work if they were to lose their jobs as a result of the Draft Plan. Summary of the Economic losses in Retailing and Other Sectors of the Irish Economy due to the Proposed Traffic Management Changes in the Draft Dublin City Centre Transport Plan 2023       Economic Impact Variable     Direct Impact [1]     Indirect Impact [2]     Induced Impact [3] Knock-On Impact [2]+[3]   Total Impact [1]+[2]+[3] Retail Spend/Value of Output (€) 141,253,366 29,692,607 68,478,622 98,171,229 239,424,595 Gross Value Added (GVA) (€) 87,253,471 79,770,693 29,452,585 109,223,278 196,476,749 Employment (FTEs) 1,787 3,428 1,026 4,455 6,242 Wages (€) 94,198,090 46,408,623 12,379,630 58,788,254 152,986,343 Exchequer Revenue (€) 18,262,152     22,860,432 41,122,584 Monetary Total (2028 Price Terms) 199,713,712 126,179,316 41,832,215 190,871,963 390,585,676   Monetary Total (2024 Price Terms) 184,586,580 116,621,979 38,663,672 176,414,541 361,001,121   Source: This corresponding table in the main body of the report detailing the economic impacts in full is Table 10 (p. 14). The Draft Plan envisages a low traffic city centre with more space for sustainable modes of transport – bus, rail, cycling and walking – and with more frequent and efficient public transport links and interchanges. By re-orienting the City Centre towards sustainable travel modes, the Draft Plan aims to facilitate the Council to meet the travel mode share targets for 2028 set out in the Dublin CDP 2022-2028 and to support the Council’s efforts to contribute towards the national objective of reducing emissions from transport by 50% by 2030 in the 2023 Climate Action Plan. The Draft Plan contains the following travel mode share changes during 2019-2028 (2019 being the base year and 2028 the target year): The targets in the Draft Plan imply the following travel mode share percentage changes during 2019-2028: The inclusion of taxis in the fourth group of travel modes provokes an element of confusion because the Canal Cordon Report 2022 produced by DCC and the NTA (which provides the travel data underpinning the Draft Plan) includes taxis among the “Sustainable Modes” (of transport) in Table 4 (p. 21) (along with bus, rail, LUAS, walking and cycling) while “Car, Goods and Other Modes” in that table of the Canal Cordon Report 2022 is the sum of car, goods vehicle and motor cycle modes.2 Delivery of the Draft Plan will occur during 2024-2030 with a series of proposed traffic management measures (i.e. restrictions) introduced in the City Centre during 2024-2028, while new transport initiatives – BusConnects Core Bus Corridor Schemes, DART+ West and DART+ South West – will be delivered during 2027-2030 (BusConnects Enhancements are planned to be introduced during 2024-2025). The new transport initiatives will be preceded by the proposed restrictions (which will be felt strongly on cars) (Table A1 in the Annex to this report reproduces the timings of the proposed traffic management measures and the new transport schemes for bus and rail as scheduled in the Draft Plan). 1      An illustrative summary of the Draft Plan (including the targets) is reproduced in Figure A1 in the Annex to this report. 2      This observation regarding the Canal Cordon Report 2022 is also noted in footnote 10 of this report (p. 6). Among the traffic management measures proposed in the Draft Plan are the following: Other provisions of the Draft Plan affecting private car access to the City Centre include: The Draft Plan contains the following vision for the capital (p. 7): “Within the next 10 years, Dublin will have an established international reputation as one of Europe’s most sustainable, dynamic and resourceful city regions. Dublin, through the shared vision of its citizens and civic leaders, will be a beautiful, compact city, with a distinct character, a vibrant culture and a diverse, smart, green, innovation-based economy. It will be a socially inclusive city of urban neighbourhoods with excellent