Archives

OK

Random entry RSS

Loading

  • Posted in:

    Upwardly mobile mobile.

    By Ronan Lynch. One of the best in-jokes among editors this year is that “desktop is the new print”. Four years ago, news websites had zero visitors arriving via mobile devices. This year, the Financial Times noted that almost two out of three visitors to its website came via mobile devices, and news websites expect mobile users to account for four in five online readers in two years time. What’s driving all of this change? Step forward, the Circle. Sorry, Google. Although not a news platform, Google is driving a staggering rate of change in the news business as the company captures more and more of the advertising revenue from print and online news media. This change is being driven by the widespread adoption of smartphones and the increasing amounts of time we spend on our mobile phones and tablets. A survey by US website emarketer shows that in 2013, adults spent an average of two hours and twelve minutes on mobile devices (such as smartphones and tablets) and the same time on desktops or laptops. By the end of 2014, Emarketer estimates that adults will spend just under three hours each day on their mobile devices, with laptop and desktop usage dropping to close to two hours. Accordingly, mobile ad spending is set to increase 83% from 2013 to 2014, passing out radio, newspaper and magazine spending, and settling into third place behind television and desktop spending. Currently, advertisers spend twice as much on desktop advertising as on mobile, but that’s also set to change, with mobile revenue set to outpace desktop by 2016. So, who ends up pocketing all of this advertising revenue? The five most-visited Irish websites are google.ie, google.com, facebook.com, Google-owned youtube.com, and wikipedia. In the US, Google takes around 11% of online ad revenue, followed by Facebook at 4%, and much of Google’s advertising revenue distribution goes to Facebook. This year, Google will take more than one-third of its revenue from mobile advertising, and that could increase to 66% within two years. It’s not just that we’re spending more time on mobile devices. To their delight, advertisers are discovering that mobile devices, in the words of tech website pando.com, are turning us into “advertising hungry, nonstop retail monsters”. A report by advertising agency Criteo found that users are far more likely to click on mobile ads than on desktop ads. On iPhones and iPads, we’re 55% more likely to click on an ad, while Android (by Google) users are 90% more likely to click through, and 85% of the world’s smartphones running on Google’s Android operating system. There’s a mind-boggling cycle of information at work here. Our mobile devices are feeding great amounts of data back to Google about our habits and movements, enabling the company to deliver targeted and location-based advertising; with Apple devices, it’s possible to minimise the data fed back about location, but Android doesn’t offer such opt-outs. Yes, it seems that nothing makes us happier than shopping online with our mobiles. We’ve wised up to banner ads, whose click-through rates were once more than 50%, but which have plummeted now to less than .1%, forcing advertisers to look for other ways to attract our attention. Enter ‘native advertising’, the online equivalent of newspaper pages discreetly marked out as ‘commercial features’. The New York Times executive Meredith Levien notes that its readers now spend as much time on branded content as on news stories. Time CEO Joe Ripp is elevating ‘native advertising’ to a new level, announcing in July that his editors would now report to the advertising executives. There has traditionally been a wall between editorial and advertising for ethical reasons, to prevent advertisers from directly influencing editorial matters. Brands are increasingly hiring journalists to create content for their native advertising divisions. In recent years, we’ve seen the consequences of this blurring of the lines between editorial and advertising, and it hasn’t generally served us well. The division between editorial and advertising in newspapers is most slight in the property and motors sections of newspapers, where all cars are good, and all properties are interesting when they’re not exclusive. Vast revenues accrued to newspapers from property advertising during the mid-2000s, and although newspaper insiders knew that the property advertising bubble indicated a market at its peak, they largely failed to flag the crash. When Sunday Business Post property writer Carol Tallon suggested in July that buyers would be wise to wait a few years for an increase in the housing supply, it felt like a very edgy and radical thing for a property writer to say, though in fairness, the paper did need someone to counterbalance the recent if temporary elevation to go-to opinion writer Jim ‘soft-landing’ Power. •

    Loading

    Read more

  • Posted in:

    Ethics not ‘immutable economics’ should drive housing policy.

    By Padraic Kenna. Housing in Ireland raises ethical issues, though for historical reasons we tend to see them almost  exclusively as practical (or ‘economic’) ones. There is no other broad area of Irish society where public trust in institutions has been more corroded. Housing has been central to the collapse in Ireland’s State and personal finances and in respect for the public interest (such as it ever existed). Its supply, distribution financing and profits are at the heart of fairness in this country. Of course, most people in Ireland have no clear views on ethics or the absence of ethics in our housing system. Indeed our housing policies have generally been more about extending property ownership, boosting the construction industry, increasing public spending (in counter and pro-cyclical styles), facilitating lending and rewarding or providing for particular groups in society. In 1965, an American academic, based at the Institute of Public Administration, studied the Irish housing system and concluded that it was the most heavily subsidised in the world. If he returned today and made similar investigations in relation to the housing tax reliefs over the past 20 years, absence of tax on betterment and development, rent and mortgage supports, and the colossal State bailout of loans on development land, he would probably be shocked. Calculating how much of the Irish State €64 billion bailout bill is related to residential development land would give us some idea of the extent of these market subsidies. Clearly, nobody is doing that kind of economic research these days. However, these market subsidies to lenders, developers and landowners are politically acceptable, although rarely discussed. When house prices reach a level at which significant numbers of new households are unable to afford homeownership or even home rental, governments are faced with a dilemma, described by Pfretzschner in 1965: “Either [a government] can take the steps to raise the level of wages, pensions and benefits sufficiently so that each family can afford to pay an economic rent, or it can take steps to provide the shelter, or to assure its provision, and absorb the loss itself, meaning that the burden of the loss is passed along in the form of higher taxation and/or rates to the rest of society”. Of course, today, states have developed many effective instruments to direct the housing system, through planning, taxes, regulation etc, although in Ireland many of them are only marginally acceptable even in the wake of the Irish housing market fiasco. As long ago as 1879, Henry George pointed out that as the productive output of countries increased, such as in Ireland during the past 20 years, much of the increased wages and salaries can get swallowed up in housing costs. The huge increase in productive power does not result in increased real standards of living, but rather in an increase in the value of land. Indeed, the increase in land and housing costs prevents increasingly productive citizens from enjoying ethical increases in living standards and developing their full potential. In Ireland, the long commute (so as to afford a decent-sized home)and the absence of quality family time, as a result of expensive urban housing, is well established as a legend of our Celtic Tiger housing bubble. What is remarkable is that building costs have not increased that much at all, yet access to a decent home costs more and more in terms of multiples of annual earnings. Here, the hidden price of land and the profits of the developer are concealed. Henry George in ‘Progress and Poverty’ (1879) states that “all the advantages gained by the march of progress go to the owners of land”. A house and the land on which it stands are treated as property by the law, – “yet in nature they differ widely”. The “one is produced by human labour” and the other is part of nature. Lawyers look on the private ownership of land as the foundation of society. Yet, most people believe that it is unethical that owners of land should benefit from publicly funded and organised improvements in its location, connection to services, planning and zoning. People’s homes and front gardens cannot be regarded as the same as development land. Indeed, the Kenny Report in the 1970s suggested that local authorities be given the power to designate land required for development and the right to acquire this land at a price 25 per cent above its value in its existing use. The All-Party Oireachtas Committee on the Constitution Ninth Report on Private Property (2004) called for a “new mindset” in how we look at development land in Ireland. It suggested that the community should benefit from the “betterment” of land created by zoning, planning, infrastructure connections etc. A planning-gain levy was mooted in the 1990s. This has now been enacted, with surprisingly little public awareness, in the NAMA Act 2009, which introduced a “windfall tax” on disposals of development land, to the extent to which they are attributable to rezoning. Capital Gains Tax is exacted at a special rate of 80%. The danger in Ireland is that this will be insidiously removed sometime soon on grounds that it might raise prices. This particular issue should be an ethical not a practical one. A recurrent property tax on all land zoned for development where the land was not being developed was proposed by the Commission on Taxation in 2009. The idea of a site value tax (SVT) on land (including where homes have already been built) is to capture the underlying value of developed land. In general, the value of a site derives from its location and accessibility to publicly funded or subsidised services, facilities and utilities”. No SVT has been introduced in Ireland, though it was promised in the programme for government. Whereas a value-based property tax like the one the coalition in the end pursued has the ethical purpose of spreading wealth, a site value tax serves the practical end of promoting economic land use. Indeed the economic imperative is so

    Loading

    Read more

  • Posted in:

    Debt’s dominion

    By Sinead Pentony. Is Ireland’s level of debt sustainable? The Troika drew attention to our high public debt in their final review of Ireland’s bailout programme. The first few weeks of 2014 have seen good news on Ireland’s cost of borrowing on the bond markets and the decision by Moody’s ratings agency, after all the others,  to upgrade our grading to ‘investment grade’. We also have modest, but consistent improvement across a number of key economic indicators including GDP, employment growth and unemployment, giving us reason to hope that the worst may be over.   These recent developments are leading some to think that the crisis is fading. On closer inspection, the improvements in the bond markets are not necessarily due to an improvement in the fundamentals of the Irish and Eurozone economies, and have probably been influenced by the ECB’s decision to introduce an Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme in 2012. Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes”, did the trick; investors believe the ECB could and would counter rising spread by buying up debt. So where does that leave us with the current levels of debt and more importantly, the sustainability of that debt? Chart 1 illustrates the scale of the debt we are carrying (117% of GDP in 2012) compared to other European countries (EU average, 85% of GDP in 2012). The IMF projects that our debt will have peaked in 2013 at 124% of GDP and decline to 112% by 2018. Many commentators make the case for using GNP as an economic indicator as it more accurately reflects Ireland’s economy and the large multi-national sector. Calculating our debt levels using this indicator brings our debt-to-GNP ratio up to 145% in 2012; and using this measure in Chart 1, our debt levels are the second highest in the EU and much closer to Greece’s.  Using existing GNP forecasts, our level of debt will be in the region of 150% of GNP for the next 3 years.     It is important to remember that we put €64 billion into the banks, approximately €42 billion of which was borrowed. Our current (public) debt is €205 billion, which means that over 20% of our public debt is a result of the bank bailout, where private bank losses were transferred to the taxpayer. These figures don’t include NAMA loans of just over €30 billion. It is not clear if NAMA will break even, make a profit or a loss in the future. However, the exchequer will be liable for any shortfalls in the future. The re-engineering of the IBRC (Anglo) promissory notes in February 2013 improved Ireland’s underlying general government balance by just under €1 billion, but it’s important to remember that this deal included no capital write-down but focussed instead on reducing the interest rate and extending the period of repayments from 7-8 years, to 30-40 years. Adding in private (household and corporate) debt provides a more complete picture of the true scale of the debt burden on the Irish economy. Private household debt remains very high, at almost 200% of disposable income which is just over 100% of GDP (€172 billion). Debt associated with corporate/business sector is measured through ‘non-financial corporation debts’, which are estimated to be 195% of GDP (€318 billion). While a large portion of debt is associated with multinationals and the financial services industry, it also includes SME debts. The total debt in the Irish economy is estimated at €695 billion, which is almost 420% of GDP.    This level of (public and private) debt in the Irish economy is one of the main reasons why growth is struggling to take root. Chart 2 illustrates how quickly our debt could rise even further if growth forecasts don’t materialise and the current nascent recovery experiences a ‘growth-shock’. For example, a temporary reduction in growth by two percentage points would result in our debt jumping to over 130% of GDP. Households and businesses are rightly focusing on paying down debt, which is limiting spending in the domestic economy and investment in businesses. There is also evidence of households and businesses that are in a position to borrow, not being able to access credit, which is compounding the lack of demand in the domestic economy, and further dampening growth.     Meanwhile, an ever increasing proportion of our taxes are going towards servicing the public debt at the expense of investment in infrastructure and public services such as health and education. The cost of servicing the national debt increased from €2.1 billion in 2008 to €8.1 billion in 2013 – that’s a four-fold increase in debt repayments within five years. To put the scale of the debt burden in context, the total budget for the Department of Education is €8.8 billion. It would cost just over €3 billion to introduce a universal system of early-years education and childcare; and it would cost less than €500 million to introduce free GP care for all, abolish prescription charges for medical card holders and expand community and long-term care. The evidence suggests that growth is likely to be adversely affected by high debt ratios, and continuing fiscal consolidation will undermine growth in the absence of offsetting policy stimulus. Ireland’s future potential for growth in output and employment is currently constrained by the fact that we have the lowest level of investment as a proportion of GDP in the European Union. Investment in social, human and physical capital is a key component of medium-term economic growth which is a key ingredient for making debt sustainable. The economy itself is not generating enough income to bring down debt levels without compromising investment in human and physical capital and public services. Action is required on a number of fronts to make the level of debt more sustainable and to create a virtuous cycle of growth: • At EU level, definitive action is required to break the link between banking and sovereign debt (including legacy banking debt) and measures should be put in place to write-down

    Loading

    Read more

  • Posted in:

    Inexorable ascent of women electoral candidates

    By Ivana Bacik. Selection conventions are now being held across the country to bring forward candidates for the May 2014 local and European elections. It is timely to revisit the issue of women’s representation in politics, especially in the new context created by the enactment of the Electoral (Amendment) (Political Funding) Act 2012. This Act should have a transformative effect on the political landscape at the next General Election, likely in 2016.  The 2012 Act requires political parties to select at least 30% women and 30% men as candidates in that election. After a period of seven years, the minimum requirement for each gender will rise to 40%.  Parties which do not meet these targets will see their State funding cut by half. However, unfortunately, the Act does not apply to this year’s local or European elections. In the 2011 General Election, just 86 (15%) of 566 candidates were women and 25 women were elected, representing 15% of the 166 Dáil deputies. This was the best result ever achieved for women in Irish politics. The new statutory target will effectively double the number of women standing as candidates in the next General Election and is likely to result in a significant increase in the numbers of women elected.  This is likely to have a knock-on effect in the numbers of women going forward for local election this year. Currently, only 16% of elected councillors are women, following the 2009 local elections in which 17% of the candidates were women. In the previous local elections, held in 2004, women constituted 19% of elected councillors, the best result to date for women in local politics. Political-party organisers are certainly conscious, during the ongoing selection processes, of the need to recruit more women as local candidates, in order to have sufficient numbers in place to meet the new targets for the next General Election. Figures provided by the Women for Election group, which has been monitoring the convention processes, show that women constituted 24% of the 1,022 candidates selected up to January 2014. Labour had the highest rate of women selected, at 32%. In second place, 30% of the selected Sinn Féin candidates were women. Fine Gael had selected 22% women candidates and only 17% of Fianna Fáil candidates were women.  These figures could change before the election date of 23rd May, but already it seems that the proportion of women candidates will be significantly higher than 2009. This should be part of a build-up to women being more visible as candidates in the general election and, ultimately, in Leinster House.   Nominations are not yet completed for the European elections. In 2009, women constituted 24% of the candidates in the European election  and 25% of those elected (three MEPs out of a total of twelve). Following the resignation of some MEPs and their substitution according to party lists, there are now five women MEPs for Ireland. This constitutes 42% of the total, a record level of participation at any level for women in Irish politics. Five years ago, I organised an event to commemorate the 90th anniversary of the 1918 election, when women first had the right to vote, and in which Constance Markievicz was elected as the first woman TD and MP. The chamber was almost half full of women on that occasion, with 72 present.  I finally obtained permission for the photograph of that event to be displayed on the walls of Leinster House, along a ground-floor corridor in late 2013. Lise Hand memorably observed in the Independent that male TDs and Senators should be sure to see it, given that it is prominently positioned on the way to the Dáil bar.  To mark the 95th anniversary of the historic 1918 election, I have organised for another photograph to be taken, this time of all current women TDs and Senators (a total of 45) sitting in the 60-seat Seanad chamber. Commemorative events like these create a powerful visual image of how a parliament made up equally of men and of women would look.  Perhaps, after May, our local council chambers and European parliament seats may look more like these pictures. •

    Loading

    Read more