Election 2020

The danger is that votes to break the cycle of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be used to keep the merry-go-round spinning. By Paul Murphy. This is a change election. A majority of people are now indicating support for parties other than Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Is it any wonder? With crises in housing, health, childcare, education, additional needs and disability services, on top of completely inadequate action on climate change, it’s no surprise that people are fed up with parties that serve the rich while we struggle to get by. A brief look at the history of politics in the Irish state is enough to confirm that no substantial political change will come about from FG or FF in government. That is widely understood in working-class communities, where the overwhelming desire of people is to kick both of those parties out. Having been responsible, together with Labour and the Greens, for the bank bailout and brutal austerity which followed, people want them gone.  The Sinn Féin surge, as well as the Green wave taking place in a different part of the electorate, are reflections of that wish for change. The tragedy of Irish politics is that on many occasions in the past, that wish for change has been betrayed by Labour and the Greens. Votes to break the cycle of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were used to keep the merry-go-round spinning. There is a real danger of this being repeated in this election. RISE and People Before Profit have issued numerous calls on Sinn Féin to rule out coalition with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Unfortunately, Mary Lou McDonald’s answer was clear – she refused to do it and spoke about the necessity to be prepared to go into government. While a Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin government would not be a direct repeat of Labour or the Greens in government, the same fundamental process would be at play. Fianna Fáil representing the capitalist class in this country would block the change that Sinn Féin voters are hoping for. For example, there is no way that Fianna Fáil would agree to a rent freeze that is the minimum necessary to give renters a break. Such a freeze would hit the bottom line of the one in three Fianna Fáil TDs who are landlords, and more importantly the big landlords whose class interests they represent. Even at this late stage, if Mary Lou McDonald came out clearly and said she won’t be voting for Varadkar or Martin or any candidate from FF or FG for Taoiseach and that she wants to lead an alternative government, this dynamic in the election against FF and FG could be further strengthened. Sinn Féin doesn’t have to look to coalition with the right-wing parties to form a government. The forces outside Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could continue to grow in the final week of the campaign and have a potential majority in the Dail.  In those circumstances, what should the socialist left do? In the first place, we should vote against the formation of any government involving FF or FG. We should then use our votes in the Dail to allow an alternative government to come to power. Then we should vote consistently in the interests of working-class people. Outside the Dail, we should seek to help build the biggest possible people power movements to demand the radical change we need, including separation of church and state, the repeal of the Industrial Relations Act, and the abolition of Direct Provision. Should the socialist left join such a government? That depends on what policies that government would implement. If it is to be a government that accepts the right of big polluters to maximise their profits, of corporate landlords to maximise their rent and employers to minimise the wages they pay, and only attempts a better redistribution of the crumbs, then that government will ultimately betray its promises, and we should not participate. Instead, the kind of left government with socialist policies that we would participate in is one that would challenge the rule of the 1% in this state and open the door to fundamental socialist change. Essential red lines would include; a commitment to take on the big landlords and developers by eliminating the housing list within three years and cutting rents including through nationalisation of the big corporate landlords and introducing a new model of public housing accessible to all; to commence the building of a single-tier properly resourced National Health Service by taking private hospitals into public ownership and incorporating them into the public health service; and to cut net carbon emissions by 10% a year, which would require public ownership of the big polluters. Regardless of the outcome of the elections, recent years have shown that change can be won when people take the streets in their tens of thousands to demand it. The water charges movement remains an important reference point for large sections of the population who experienced a sense of their own power. Repeal and 12 weeks on request were also not delivered from on high by a liberal government, but driven from below. The emerging global climate movement, including the school students strikes and Extinction Rebellion, can demonstrate the same pattern. It is no accident that the socialist left was to the fore in all of these movements. Our vision for socialist change is based on the desire of working people for a better, fairer and just world, and our ability to bring that about through collective mass action.  We used our platforms in the Dáil and the media to advocate for the strategy and tactics that were necessary to win – for example spreading the idea of mass non-payment, which was crucial to defeat the water charges. Outside the Dáil, our resources were used to build these movements and organise in communities. Inside the Dáil, Solidarity-People Before Profit has punched far above its weight. We have proposed and passed crucial legislation

By Oisín Vince Coulter Use our simulator to see if you can build a majority government out of various potential results in the 2020 General Election. You choose which parties to put into coalition, and see if you can reach the magic number of 80. Previous seat numbers are from 2016 General Election, not taking into account by-elections, resignations and defections. Potential Outcomes All polling has inherent flaws – you are only imperfectly capturing the opinions of some people at a particular given moment in time. Even more than that, Irish election polling runs especially foul of our multiple seat constituency proportional representation, single transferable vote (PR-STV) system. This means elections in a given constituency don’t necessarily reflect the ‘national’ prevailing mood. That said, one can discern roughly how well different parties are doing relative to each other.  All polls so far point to Fianna Fáil emerging as the largest party, a Sinn Féin surge, Fine Gael faltering in their campaign, Labour potentially remaining stagnant or seeing small gains and the Greens seeing a solid increase in their vote and seat share. Smaller parties and independents are even more difficult to model for, as their support can be within the margin of error (plus or minus three percent, generally) of a national poll and yet is localised enough to deliver candidates into the Dail.  Average This result is based on the RTÉ ‘poll of polls’ from Monday, 27th Jan 2020 written by Prof. Michael Marsh of Trinity College Dublin. As he notes: “All three [polls] agreed in suggesting a decline in Fine Gael support, leaving it clearly behind Fianna Fáil, and an upsurge in support for Sinn Féin.” This result is simply an average of the opinion polls conducted so far. Republican Rising Taking into account the growth in Sinn Féin’s polling numbers over the weekend, we could be facing their electoral breakthrough and potentially entrance into government. This result is closest to last night’s RedC Poll (Sat 1st Feb), and has both the smaller parties of the center and left seeing moderate gains or remaining stagnant, and Fine Gael’s support declining substantially. As Sinn Féin aren’t running as many candidates as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, both parties are likely to outperform their national vote in seat numbers. This result would change the dynamic of Irish politics forever. Left Swing This result has Sinn Féin and the Greens see substantial gains, Labour and the Social Democrats small gains and PBP/Solidarity maintain three of their six seats. The parties of the left would need to meet or outperform their polling, and would be a very bruising election for the civil war parties. It is close enough to Fianna Fáil’s preferred result, as it would allow them to form a government with Labour, the Greens, some independents and the Social Democrats. If that was the government then Fine Gael, like Fianna Fáil after the 2011 election, would find themselves fighting Sinn Féin to be the main party of opposition. Civil War Dominance A relatively conservative result with most voters sticking by the two traditional parties.  This result would potentially involve a lower voter turnout, and would end in an outcome similar to the last election. It would require voters who had swung to Sinn Féin during the first half of the election to swing back or not vote, possibly as a result of focused campaigning by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael that drew attention to the party’s past. Voters for other parties would also have avoided transferring to Sinn Féin, and the center left would see lower gains or remain stagnant.  Green Wave Predicted by many during last year’s local-election count, the “Green Wave” has since lost much of its momentum. This result could come after a sudden upswell during the last week of campaigning; the environment would need to be far higher on the campaign-agenda than it has been so far. It would put the Greens in a strong position to dictate terms to whoever wishes to form a government with them. It would also be begin a seachange of climate policy in Ireland, and could see other parties taking the environmental policy far more seriously into the future. Fine Gael Washout Despite the high economic numbers, Fine Gael’s campaign has been pretty miserable so far because of their repeat-gaffes and terrible record on health and housing. A further fall in popularity could lead to this outcome, which would see voters punish the party at the polls and end the longest period of Fine Gael government in Ireland’s history. It would also most likely result in a coup within the party against Leo Varadkar. There is little in this outcome which is not to like. Revolution This result would completely alter the Irish political landscape. It would force Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael together into opposition, and would be the first time in Ireland’s history that its Taoiseach did not come from one of those two parties. While it is clear from the campaign so far that there is appetite for change in the country, breaking the cycle of civil war politics would require that to grow even further, and solidify substantially in the next week.

In terms of the range, imagination and costedness of progressive health policies, Sinn Féin is in front, though Fianna Fáil’s is scrupulously budgeted for and the Social Democrats’ most orthodox. By Michael Smith All of Ireland’s political parties have signed up to Sláintecare which should be implemented by the end of 2028. That’s the key background to their manifestos which show variations and detail on what is now the template. Apart from Solidarity which has an appealingly short health manifesto including secularisation of hospitals and nationalisation of all private health and pharmaceutical enterprises, differences in policy are therefore largely about how the parties would prioritise elements of Sláintecare.   Though in fact Sláintecare does itself lay out a timetabling of priorities. This means there is an anomaly between many parties’ support for Sláintecare up to 2029 including its timetable, and budget; and their proposals of separate interim timetables and budgets during the next, five-year, term of government.  Presumably, if they frontload expenditure into the first five years when Sláintecare envisages a longer rollout, then there will be less expenditure in the second five years.  Otherwise, the parties are implicitly disassociating from what they have all agreed as the central planks in their health policies. Extra expenditure during the term of the next government will have to come from the €11bn ‘fiscal space’ over five years projected by the Department of Finance and accepted by most parties.  Beyond this, the parties have tacked on special pet projects.  But these are likely to be compromised by coalition or partnership negotiations. Past performance is something of a guide to future performance so it is worth looking at the history of parties, particularly Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, in drawing and implementing health policy in the State.  Implementation of health policy will be largely determined by Sláintecare with the parties’ longstanding ideologies a guide, especially on immediate funding and their indulgence of some pet projects though not necessarily the ones listed in manifestos.   On Health Policy Village cautions caveat emptor; there is every possibility there will be little change. This guide synopsises parties’ policies.  If transposition results in any mistakes Village would be pleased to correct them. Because there is such overlap the most instructive thing we can do is highlight original and different approaches, in bold. History of Health policy in Ireland In the second half of the 1940s, after it was instigated in the UK, a National Health Service was promoted by Fianna Fáil and even made it as far as a White Paper. But Ireland never got a single-tier health service, at first because of medical-profession lobbying supported by the Fine Gael Opposition, then because of-church opposition, and then because of medical-profession lobbying and revised Fianna Fáil ideology.  Donogh O’Malley, the hero of free secondary education, was against ‘socialised medicine’ when Minister for Health (1965-6): “those who could pay should pay”. The two-tier, medical-card, system of access to hospital care is a construct of Fianna Fáil governments, albeit never seriously challenged by any other party in government.  With no vision for the health system, Fianna Fáil threw money at healthcare in the late 1970s only to cut back savagely in the late 1980s. Between 1986 and 1993 over a third (5500) of beds were cut nationally.  The health budget quadrupled from under €4 bn in 1998 to over €15bn in 2008, largely playing catchup after Haughey-era cuts; and to €17.8bn in 2020.  2000 beds were cut in 2009 under Fianna Fáil/Greens/PDs but Fine Gael have put back  around 900 since 2011. In the last government HSE staffing increased by 8,868 to 119,126 by the end of last year. HSE management/administration employees increased by 2,042, an extra 328 consultants were appointed and there were 2,008 more nurses, according to Department of Health figures. Because of the shortage of hospital beds, the average hospital stay in Ireland at 6.2 days is much shorter than the OECD average of 8.2 days; and Ireland hospitalises far fewer patients, at 139 per 1,000 of the population annually, compared with an OECD average of 169. Fianna Fáil, under Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy (1997-2004), gave generous tax breaks to developers to build private nursing homes and hospitals: although it was government policy to have fewer, bigger, safer acute hospitals, another arm of government was giving away public money to build small, profitable, unregulated hospitals anywhere they decided, totally contradicting the policy.  In 2001 it gave and in 2008 it took away, un-means-tested medical cards for over-70-year-olds, recently reinstated by Fine Gael, the government then had to negotiate a very bad deal with GPs who (led by James Reilly who later finished up as a bad Minister for Health) squeezed the pips. As a result, GPs were paid three times the rate for looking after richer over-70s than those who already had medical cards. This skewed GP services so that doctors were paid more to provide care to those who needed it least.  The establishment of the HSE is the biggest public-sector reform in Irish history. Prepared by Mícheál Martin but executed by Mary Harney it was badly planned, leaderless for its first seven months, without structures, a clear plan for redeployment of staff who’d been organised on a county level, or a vision specifically to provide universal, quality care. There have been numerous attempts to reform but without any real transformation. The renegotiation of the consultants’ contract a decade ago was a lost and expensive opportunity at enormous expense to reform the Irish health system but it is only very recent and exorbitant proposals to pay €250,000 – twice what Britain’s NHS pays – to consultants to practise only publicly are something of a start.  A White Paper on Universal Health Insurance was published in 2014 with a report on the potential costs of the White Paper model published in November 2015. The debate was always too much about the cost of this rather than on how a focus on insurance might actually serve the presumed goal of universal healthcare. In the