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Ireland’s employment problem

by Village 17 February, 2014

By Sinead Pentony ‘Employment in construction is now just 37.5% of its June 2007 level but increased by 51,300 over the last six years in the areas of health and social work, information and communication, and education’. ‘The main policy measures aimed at increasing employment include the Action Plan for Jobs which aims to have 100,000 more people in work; the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund which is to be funded with €6.4 billion from the National Pension Reserve Fund; and JobsPlus’. As we prepare to exit the bailout and wave goodbye to the Troika in mid-December, they have highlighted three big issues that have yet to be resolved – elevated levels of unemployment, high public debt, and banks’ growing non-performing loans. I will take a closer look at the first two issues over the next two editions of Village. The Troika may be leaving Ireland but the unemployment crisis is on-going. Unfortunately, unemployment crises are nothing new to Ireland. The unemployment rate currently stands at 13.9% (200,700 people). Over the last 30 years (1982-2013) unemployment has averaged over 11%, which represents a huge loss to the economy, lost opportunities for thousands of people and enormous social costs for society. Ireland experienced one of the biggest increases in unemployment of the 34 OECD countries between 2007 and 2012, as shown in Figure One. Long-term unemployment (unemployed for over 1 year) is currently 8.1% (175,000 people), which means the long-term unemployed make up almost 60% of the total number of people who are unemployed. There are signs of improvement. The number of job losses appears to have levelled off and there has been a modest increase of 33,700 people in work over the last 12 months (June 2012 – June 2013). While this is positive, it still represents a decline of 277,400 jobs from June 2008. Ireland experienced the third largest fall in employment levels over this period, after Greece and Spain, as shown in Figure Two. The sectors most affected by the crisis are construction, industry, and administrative and support services. Employment in construction is now just 37.5% of its June 2007 level. Industry and administrative and support services have fared better, with employment levels of 79% and 73%, respectively, for the same period. In contrast, employment increased by 51,300 over the last six years in the areas of health and social work, information and communication, and education. While any improvement in the employment figures is to be welcomed, this is not at a level that is going to solve the unemployment crisis in the short term. The employment rate in Ireland currently stands at 60%, which falls far short of the EU Commission’s Europe 2020 Strategy employment target of 75%. The biggest issue is that there are not enough jobs available. Ireland adopted a mid-range 2014 employment rate target of 69-71%. This was combined with a commitment to focus policy on addressing weak labour demand; putting in place incentives and stimuli to increase employment within enterprises; addressing long-term unemployment; and improving the levels of skills and education in the working-age population. The main policy measures aimed at increasing employment include the Action Plan for Jobs which aims to have 100,000 more people in work over the life-time of the plan; the recently announced Ireland Strategic Investment Fund (ISIF) which is to be funded with €6.4 billion from the National Pension Reserve Fund; and a range of initiatives aimed at incentivising employers to take on unemployed people e.g. JobsPlus. These are important measures to boost economic growth and job creation, but many of the initiatives are relatively new, which means it will take time for the effects to be seen in the employment figures. The policies aimed at increasing growth and jobs are also not sufficient to deal with the scale of the unemployment crisis, nor are they sufficient to off-set the damage that has been done by a budgetary strategy that has taken €28 billion out of the Irish economy since 2008. Policies aimed at increasing employment are complemented by policies that support unemployed people back into work and ensuring the workforce is equipped with the skills and training required in an advanced economy. These policies, commonly referred to Active Labour Market Programmes (ALMPs), are crucial to reducing structural unemployment (an over-supply of skills in the construction sector and an undersupply in the ICT sector) and achieving a high rate of employment. Pathways to Work sets out the programme of reform. The central element of these reforms has been the establishment of Intreo. This merges employment services and benefit administration into one-stop-shops, providing a single point of contact for all employment and income supports. A key aspect of the Intreo service is its case management approach and the development of a personal progression plan, which is in line with international best practice. Unfortunately, the new Intreo service only covers new jobseekers, which means that the vast majority of unemployed people have no access to Intreo supports. While the number of caseworkers is increasing, the average caseload currently is approximately 800 jobseekers, which is very high by international standards. This raises serious questions about the quality of service that can be delivered. A person-centred approach to labour market activation also requires highly skilled case workers. There are challenges relating to the skills and training of case workers who need extensive knowledge of the social welfare system, employment opportunities, education and training, work programmes and how to provide guidance to people with a varied range of skills and qualifications. An active labour-market service that supports a move towards a high level of employment also needs to develop tailored supports for people who often find themselves at the back of the jobs queue because employers perceive them to be less productive, or because they cannot easily combine work with their other responsibilities. This includes people from ethnic minority backgrounds, those with long-term health conditions, people with disabilities, younger and older people, mothers, and people with few or no formal qualifications. The EU

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Village Feb-Mar in most newsagents now

by Village 15 February, 2014

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Strong Irish growth in 2014 will not be sustained We have catastrophic debt and structural problems Constantin Gurdgiev

by Village 13 February, 2014

With employment rising, property prices on the mend, mortgages arrears stabilising, Exchequer returns surging and business and consumer confidence regaining pre-crisis highs, Ireland might easily be mistaken for an Asia-Pacific economic dynamo. Alas, once the official hullabaloo about the return to growth is stripped back to the bare facts, it becomes clear that Ireland is entering a new age, the Age of Great Stagnation. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, we are still facing a long-term debt crisis. No matter what statistics are pulled out of the hat, this crisis, embodied in high levels of debts carried by our households, non-financial companies and the Exchequer, is going to be with us for many years to come. Second, we are still in a structural growth crisis. Neither our own development model, heavily reliant on Foreign Direct Investment and transfer pricing by the multinationals, nor our core trading partners’ growth models, reliant on fiscal and financial repression to drag themselves out of the crisis, are sustainable in the long run. In our leaders’ dogmatic adherence to the past (a behavioural fallacy that economists call path-dependency), our official growth theory suggests that economic recovery in our major trading partners will trickle down to Ireland’s national accounts. Alas, in the longer run, a lot is amiss with this thinking. For starters, the exports-led theory of growth is simply not valid. 2000-2013, Ireland led the euro area both in growth and in recession. Since the onset of the crisis, cumulative real GDP across the euro area has contracted by 2.1 percent. In Ireland, over the same period, GDP fell by 4.7 percent as domestic drivers for the crisis overpowered external factors. As for the recovery period: unlike in the early 1990s, the improving economic fortunes abroad have not done much good for Ireland’s exports so far. Over the last four years, the volume of imports of goods in euro area countries grew by almost 15 percent. Irish exports of goods over the same period of time rose just 2.2 percent. The reason for this is structural. Tax arbitrage only works as long as there are profits to move through the Irish tax system. Once the profits dry out, arbitrage ends. The pharma sector is a good example of this dynamic. Replacing goods-driven exports with services-driven Information and Communications Technology exports is decoupling our external balances from the real economy. Worse, much of our trade balance improvements in 2009-2013 was down to a collapse in imports. This presents a serious risk. To fund our public and private liabilities, we need long-term current-account surpluses to average above 4 percent of GDP, over the next decade or so. We also need economic growth of some 3-3.5 percent in GDP and GNP. Yet, to drive real growth in the economy we need domestic investment and demand uplifts. These require an increase in imports of real capital goods for consumption. Should our exports of goods continue the pattern, any sustained improvement in the domestic economy will be associated with higher imports. A corollary to that will be a deterioration in our trade balance. This, in turn, will put pressures on our economy’s capacity to fund its overwhelming debt. And given the levels of debt we carry, the tipping point is not that far off the radar. In the first half (H1) of 2013 Ireland’s external real debt (excluding monetary authorities, banks and FDI) stood at almost USD1.32 trillion – the highest level ever recorded. Large share of this debt is down to the Multinationals. However, overall debt levels in the Irish system are still sky high. At the end of H1 2013, total real economic debt in Ireland – debt of the Irish Government, excluding Nama, Irish-resident corporates and households – stood at over EUR492 billion: down just EUR8.5 billion on absolute peak attained in H3 2012. Which brings us to the second point raised in the beginning of the article: our economic, regulatory, monetary and political dependency on the euro area. Instead of charting our own course toward sustainable long-term competitiveness, we remain attached at the hip to the euro area. The latter is now gripped by Japanese-style, long-term stagnation with no growth in new investment and consumption, and glacially slow deleveraging of its own banks and sovereigns. Financial, regulatory and fiscal repressions are now dominating euro-area agendas. All of the trade growth in the euro area today comes from the emerging and middle-income economies outside the euro bloc. And competition for this trade is heating up. Even Portugal, Greece and Spain, not to mention Italy are posting positive trade surpluses and these are projected to strengthen in 2014. Meanwhile, we remain on a slow path to entering new markets, despite having spent the better part of the last 6 years talking about the need to ‘break’ into BRICS and the emerging- and middle-income economies. In the first three quarters of 2012, Irish exports of goods to BRICS totalled EUR2.78 billion. A year later, these had dropped to EUR240 million. We are also missing the most crucial element of the growth puzzle: structural reforms. Since 2008 there has been virtually no change in the way we do business domestically, especially when it comes to the protected professions and state-controlled sectors. Legal reforms; restructuring of semi-state companies and the sectors where they play dominant roles, such as health, transport and energy; and reductions in the costs and inefficiencies in our financial services; are just a handful of areas where promised reforms have not been delivered. Instead of reducing the burden of monopolistic competition in key domestic sectors, we are increasing it. In banking, the oligopoly of three domestic players is being reinforced by exits of international banks and a lack of new entrants into the market. In line with the dearth of transformative changes in state-controlled sectors, there is little innovation in the ways the Government approaches fiscal policies. Taxes and charges are climbing, while spending continues to run ahead of pre-crisis trends. On a cumulative basis, 2008-2013

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Non-violence demands veganism

by Village 13 February, 2014

By Frank Armstrong ‘The term “gatherer-hunter” is less often used although more accurate’. ‘On a moral level, all animal use is the same. It is wrong’ ‘I believe that human beings can tolerate a small amount of animal flesh in their diet but there is no NEED for it’ What prompted you to become a vegan? In the late 1970s I was active with the British Hunt Saboteurs Association and other ‘sabs’ gave me literature about other “animal issues” such as vivisection, circuses, and factory farming. Having read up about the latter issue, I did not turn to vegetarianism, as many do, but went vegan within 3 months. How has the vegan movement changed since then? There was a Vegan Society in those days but no vegan movement as such. There is currently a serious if uneven push to establish veganism as the moral baseline of the animal advocacy movement – or at least the rights-based part of it. However, in the 1980s we were all involved in single-issue campaigning and virtually no-one talked about veganism as a philosophy about violence or a campaign in its own right. How do you feel about vegetarians? From a vegan perspective, vegetarianism includes a form of animal use. Having said that, many people argue that vegetarianism is a “gateway” to veganism. Many animal advocates who were vegetarian before vegan report their regret that they were ignorant, often for many years, about how eggs and dairy are produced. It should also be remembered that veganism is more than just diet, one that is wholly plant-composed. It includes an overarching philosophy about human relations with other animals, each other, and the planet on which we live. Some feel that vegetarians and vegans are on the same journey. However, the philosophical positions of vegetarians and vegans are different: the former opposed to animal use, the latter not opposed to animal use. So they are not really saying the same things about human/non-human relations. Is there a contradiction between animal rights and animal welfare? Yes. The crude distinction can be said to be the difference between treatment and use. Essentially, animal welfare is about improving the conditions of other animals who are used for a variety of human purposes, while animal rights opposes the human use of other animals. Moreover, the property status of other animals compromises welfare initiatives on their behalf. Why should we care so much about animals when there is so much human suffering in the world? We should care about ALL the suffering in the world, and the issues are interlinked. Veganism is essentially about non-violence. A vegan world should mean less violence in terms of human/non-human relations and human-human interaction. Research data on the vegan animal-advocacy community indicates that the majority of people in it are employed as carers, teachers, doctors, etc in the service sector, rather than in the private sector, which tends to belie the stereotype that “animal people” care nothing for humanity. We can and should care about all sufferers. We have been eating meat since time immemorial. Is it natural for us to go without it? I believe that human beings can tolerate a small amount of animal flesh in their diet but there is no NEED for it. Although we may be able to tolerate a modest amount of animal flesh in our diet, there is sustained evidence that the amounts consumed in “developed” countries are damaging to human health. There is a question about whether humans are “natural” herbivores or omnivores. Dr Milton Mills argues that we are, physiologically, the former. Increasingly the term “cultural omnivorousness” is being used to describe our practice of eating animal flesh and other animal products. There is quite a lot of ideology behind such questions. For example, we tend to adhere to a picture-book image of “early Man”, armed with spears, surrounding and killing a mammoth or whatever. The term “hunter-gatherer” is used commonly, including in sociological textbooks. The term “gatherer-hunter” is less often used although, quantitatively, that would be much more accurate. A modern term used to describe early humanity is “forager”. In ideological terms, however, we prefer to think of ourselves as skilful and brave hunters, rather than more akin to scavengers. What do you say to someone who is advised by a doctor to eat meat for their health, if say, they are low in protein, iron or vitamin B12? The glib reply is “change your doctor”. Many people are deficient in B12 – it is not, however, a problem confined to the vegan part of the human population. Vitamin B12 is derived from bacteria, so plant-based sources are available. There are several long-term (30-year-plus) vegans who have never supplemented their diet with any synthetic vitamins, although the general recommendation is that they should. There are plenty of plant-based sources of both protein (vegetables, grains, beans, nuts, lentils, etc) and iron (nuts, green leafy vegetables, wholemeal bread, some fruits, etc): indeed, some claim that plant-based sources are superior to others. What should happen to the millions of domesticated animals if we give up animal husbandry? They will not exist, certainly not in the huge numbers that they do now – billions. We need to understand that humans deliberately breed these animals in order to exploit them. There is, for example, a large industry in artificial insemination here in Ireland. In a vegan world, we would stop breeding them, so there would be a phase-out period. I think a vegan society would be prepared to fund sanctuaries for the bred animals that exist at the time. However, it would have to prevent them from naturally procreating, which raises ethical questions. There is also the possibility that some domesticates may well be able to exist as free-living beings. Is it consistent for a vegan to own a cat or a dog? Assuming that the vegan in question is an adherent of animal-rights philosophy, then no. Having said that, many vegan animal advocates care for other animals. At the

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Profile of Rehab’s Angela Kerins (Village, March ’09)

by Village 15 January, 2014

by Michael Smith Angela Kerins was born in Waterford and grew up between Cashel and her mother’s hometown of Tramore Co. Waterford. Educated at the Presentation convent in Cashel, she was trained as a nurse and midwife in England in which role she worked in the UK, the middle East, the USA and Ireland.. She is married to Sean, lives near Woodstown, Co Waterford and has one daughter and one son. A one-time member of the Fianna Fáil party, she is a ubiquitous face on Ireland’s boards. Angela Kerins is a board member of the Broadcasting Commission of Ireland, a member of Comreg’s Consumer Advisory Panel and a member of the Department of Foreign Affairs NGO committee on Human Rights. She has also served as a member of the National Executive of IBEC. She is a judge on the 2009 National Media awards and even appeared on off the Rails to “see what it’s like shopping for the larger figure”. In 2003, Kerins was awarded an honorary doctorate of laws (LLD) by the National University of Ireland, University College Dublin for her achievements in the disability sector. It is, however, for her roles in disability and equality bodies that multi-tasking Ms Kerins has been the object of some controversy. She is chair of the Equality Authority. Following cuts to its budget its chief executive, Niall Crowley, and several board members resigned. Kerins has had to endure particular criticism of her own role as chairwoman while retaining high-profile positions as chair of the National Disability Authority, board member of the Health Information Quality Authority and chief executive of the multi-million euro Rehab Group, which is her day job. For several years, Kerins has been a favoured insider for successive Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrat administrations and was known to be close to the junior ministers with responsibility for disability at various times, Mary Wallace and Frank Fahey. She is a professed admirer of health minister, Mary Harney. Kerins also has good contacts with in Fine Gael as she worked closely in Rehab with party strategist, Frank Flannery, whom she replaced as chief executive in recent years. She earned kudos for helping former Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, deliver the controversial Disability Act in 2005 despite widespread opposition from a number of groups who felt it did not provide for the “disability-proofing” of all government legislation which they believed conferred minimal and inadequate rights on those with disabilities. In her capacity as chairwoman of the Disability Legislation Consultation Group (DLCG), Kerins helped to generate sufficient support from the sector to push through the Act which commits the government, rather vaguely, to “take account of the impact on people with disabilities” when preparing legislation and policy. While it gave individuals a right to assessment of their needs it did not guarantee any services on foot of the assessment. It also gave public bodies ten years to ensure that their buildings are accessible to the disabled. Last year, Kerins was plunged into controversy when the Minister for Justice, Dermot Ahern, announced the drastic cut of 43%, from almost €6 million to €3.3 million, in the Equality Authority’s budget. Having spoken publicly of the need to retain the resources necessary to do its work effectively, Ms Kerins later appeared to accept the budget cut and was less than generous in her praise of Crowley when he did the honourable thing and resigned. His departure was followed by those of six board members including Therese Murphy of the National Women’s Council, Frank Goodwin of the Carers’ Association, two representatives from IBEC, and two trade union appointees. In early March, in the presence of a notably grateful John Waters who claimed in the Irish Times that his agenda had come in from the cold, Kerins launched the 2009-2011 Strategic Plan for the Authority and promised that it was satisfied it could meet its targets despite the swingeing budget cuts. “We are confident that through effective use of resources and a can-do attitude we can fully deliver on the ambitions set out in this plan”, Kerins said. Mark Kelly is the spokesperson for the Equality and Rights Alliance representing some seventy rights and disability agencies which was formed last year in response to the budget cuts across the sector. He said Kerins and her remaining board colleagues “had no grasp of the economic reality” if they thought they could achieve their targets with a 43% cut in funds. Kerins compounded the credibility problem when she told journalists that the Authority expected to open 450 case files this year. In 2007, at the very peak of its operations and on a full budget the Authority opened 204 cases. The plan states that 200 case files will be “progressed” every year of the plan but it is unclear how this relates to the figure of 450 new case files that she predicts will be opened this year alone. The details of the plan also raise further questions about the future ability of the Equality Authority to fulfill its mandate and to comply with European Union standards and directives on equality. Its goals, while admirable, are largely aspirational including an aim to promote greater awareness of rights and responsibilities, developing engagement with the European institutions and engaging with “men’s” groups. Critics of the recent budget changes and the planned decentralisation of staff to new offices in Roscrea complain that the whole exercise is designed to neuter the body which, under Crowley’s direction, caused no little discomfort to the establishment, including government departments, by its determined pursuit of equality cases against the State. Given her roles in the National Disability Authority, HIQA and Rehab, Kerins must be aware that other planned investigations by the Equality Authority under Crowley had the potential to cause her some personal discomfort. A now abandoned proposal to examine the conditions of employment for disabled people working in sheltered workshops could have had repercussions for the Rehab Group which she heads. The NDA was supposed to have developed strong guidelines for

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Austerity Makes Us Sick

by Village 22 December, 2013

The enjoyment of good health is unevenly distributed across Irish society. People living in deprived communities and on lower incomes experience poorer health and live shorter lives. Evidence is emerging of the negative impacts of New Austerity on the health and wellbeing of the population.

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An Bord Pleanala turns down memorial to abuse victims (27 Nov). In October Mannix Flynn explained why he opposed it.

by Village 27 November, 2013

You can’t have a memorial of something that is not yet history An Bord Pleanála should say no to commemorating residential abuse with a tunnel next to the military memorial on Parnell Square ‘the Journey of Light is drab, unimaginative, insensitive, visionless – and grandiose’ Mannix Flynn In late September, An Bord Pleanála heard appeals against the decision by Dublin City Council to give permission to the Office of Public Works for the €500,000 ‘Journey of Light’ memorial – to the victims of residential abuse. It will be a covered passageway, lit at night and flanked by fossilised limestone walls and waterfalls running through Oisín Kelly’s Children of Lir monument commemorating the 1916 Rising in the Garden Of Remembrance, Parnell Square in Dublin. A memorial was a recommendation of the Ryan report, after generations of abuse and decades of inquiries into child abuse including the Ferns report, the Murphy report, the Cloyne report, the Raphoe report, and the Dublin Dioceses report. The hearing was extremely intense at times, hostile and defensive. It seemed to me as an observer and objector that the case for going ahead with this memorial was rather heavy-handed and oppressive. This was not a holistic process designed to give healing and create reconciliation. It was evident that no real consideration had been given to the impact and integration of what can only be described as an entrance tunnel to the hallowed Garden of Remembrance. Multiple theoretical and visual aesthetic concerns were ventilated. For me the Journey of Light is drab, unimaginative, insensitive, visionless – and grandiose. Independent TD, Maureen O’Sullivan maintained: “It is demeaning to the survivors not to give them their own space but to ask them to share with a memorial that is celebratory. And it is demeaning to those who fought for the principles of democracy, our independence, to ask them to share with this dark chapter of abuse”. Will soldiers at future state occasions have to turn their backs to this memorial? The Irish Georgian Society objected to the effect the proposal would have on the surrounding historic eighteenth-century square, and to the interventions in the garden. Parnell Square should eventually be reimagined with the feel of a park. An Environmental Impact Statement would have been useful and should probably have been required, legally. Statements were also given by historian Tim Pat Coogan and John Connolly, grand nephew of James, against the proposal . The City Council was somewhat confused in its evidence. It had granted the permission despite a motion passed unanimously by all Councillors in December 2012, to make the site a protected structure. The ethical problem which sweeps aesthetic concerns in its path here is that there have in fact been no serious consequences for the individual perpetrators of the residential abuse being memorialised. Or for the congregations of religious or the Irish Catholic Church or indeed the state departments that were involved in joint ventures in this diabolical delinquency, and which then indemnified the religious. Yet now the co-accused, the State as oppressor, is proposing this ill conceived, premature, insulting and unwanted gesture. Justice Seán Ryan in the Ryan report ensured in his recommendation that the then Taoiseach’s apology should be enshrined in any memorial expression. So the words of Bertie Ahern, a man who serially betrayed us all, are to be enshrined forever more on this state memorial that is supposed to heal us and acknowledge our suffering. This is a grandiose gesture from a bankrupt state. An unnecessary spend of money. A contempt to those children who are homeless on our streets this very day, who are still dying in our State care system. Who are unprotected and unsafe in their own homes. This state indifference is itself an abuse. There is a potential conflict of interest insofar as the Minister for Education, the department that is making the application for the memorial, appointed two of the memorial committee members to the Residential Institutions Statutory Fund (RISF). The memorial omits mention of the Magdalene women, the mother and baby homes, the banished babies, the Bethany home, the mental institutions: Grangegorman, Ballinasloe, and the Midlands. History here is being presented and created by the State, by a conspiracy of the OPW, the besmirched Department of Education and Dublin City Council, as the triumphant victor over oppression: the rescuer. In fact this is a grab by the state, a monumental memorial cover-up by a co-accused that has evaded any accountability to this day. Beware of the state bearing monuments. We place great faith in the independence of An Bord Pleanála and believe it will reject this proposal in its entirety on planning grounds. But more importantly on ethical and moral grounds, on the grounds of contempt to the very idea of what memorial and monument can be and as further injury to the wounds of the many who are unfortunate enough to have been selected for incarceration in the regimes of state-run residential institutions that contained and brutalised those of us that were deemed surplus to need. As James Young wrote about the Holocaust, “once we assign monumental form to memory, we have to some degree divested ourselves of the obligation to remember”. Memorials are about the past and the issues of physical, emotional and sexual abuse in Irish institutions are not yet historical.